TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ KC

Neutral air · 1.04×

CLE @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph cross 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-3 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -2

Best of game Vinnie Pasquantino conv 27 · vs Williams ⟷ Travis Bazzana conv 20 · vs Cameron → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK Gavin Williams RHP · CLE

leak 83

1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vinnie Pasquantino — C ●●●●○

2 Carter Jensen — C ●●●○○

3 Michael Massey — D ●●○○○

FADE Noah Cameron LHP · KC

leak 55

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Travis Bazzana — D ●●●○○

2 Angel Martinez — D ●●○○○

3 Steven Kwan — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 25.4% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino HOT vs Williams Edge — 0.169 · 90.0 · 10.0% 33.3% 19.7% F B O C 52

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.217 · 91.3 · 11.3% 20.0% 25.4% F B O C 59

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.202 · 93.1 · 12.2% 0.0% 16.0% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Cameron — 0.159 · 87.7 · 6.4% 25.0% 15.0% F B O D 45

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.161 · 89.4 · 8.0% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 44

· CLE Angel Martinez HOT vs Cameron Edge — 0.210 · 87.7 · 7.8% 0.0% 24.5% F B O D 46

· KC Nick Loftin vs Williams — 0.147 · 86.8 · 6.9% 11.1% 11.2% F B O D 41

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Cameron — 0.064 · 83.7 · 1.8% 8.3% 6.3% F B O D 24

· KC Bobby Witt COOL vs Williams — 0.161 · 92.3 · 11.2% 0.0% 13.1% F B O D 47

· KC Salvador Perez vs Williams — 0.144 · 89.1 · 10.5% 0.0% 11.9% F B O D 42

· CLE Chase Delauter COOL vs Cameron — 0.165 · 91.3 · 7.0% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 41

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.137 · 88.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 36

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Williams Edge — 0.111 · 88.1 · 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 36

· CLE Patrick Bailey vs Cameron — 0.113 · 90.3 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 39

· CLE Brayan Rocchio COOL vs Cameron Edge — 0.128 · 87.0 · 4.8% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Noah Cameron — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Gavin Williams — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bazzana Jensen Pasquantino Massey

Legend

attack side — vs Williams fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Vinnie Pasquantino — · 52

Carter Jensen — · 59

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph cross 69°F open

-2

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

66°F

7:40p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

65°F

8:40p

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

65°F

9:40p

-4

↑

8 mph · cross

64°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.04× 69°F, wind 5 mph ESE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Noah Cameron · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 46 D — HOT 91 0.210 87.7 7.8% 23.1%vs LHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 24.5% 23

2 Travis Bazzana 45 D — WARM 105 0.159 87.7 6.4% 7.1%vs LHP 393 12.7% 25.0% 15.0% 29

3 Chase Delauter 41 D — COOL 146 0.165 91.3 7.0% 16.7%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.6% 29

4 Patrick Bailey 39 D — WARM 170 0.113 90.3 7.5% 10.0%vs LHP 409 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% 11

5 Jose Ramirez 36 D — COOL 191 0.137 88.5 5.9% 14.7%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 8.6% 36

6 Brayan Rocchio 36 D — COOL 195 0.128 87.0 4.8% 10.3%vs LHP 384 8.1% 0.0% 7.7% 28

7 Steven Kwan 24 D — COOL 243 0.064 83.7 1.8% 0.0%vs LHP 367 2.1% 8.3% 6.3% 36

vs Gavin Williams · RHP 1.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 59 C — COOL 25 0.217 91.3 11.3% 20.2%vs RHP 398 17.3% 20.0% 25.4% 25

2 Jac Caglianone 55 C — COOL 41 0.202 93.1 12.2% 28.6%vs RHP 416 13.6% 0.0% 16.0% 15

3 Vinnie Pasquantino 52 C — HOT 53 0.169 90.0 10.0% 16.7%vs RHP 396 13.2% 33.3% 19.7% 29

4 Bobby Witt 47 D — COOL 85 0.161 92.3 11.2% 15.2%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 13.1% 32

5 Michael Massey 44 D — COOL 118 0.161 89.4 8.0% 11.2%vs RHP 393 8.2% 16.7% 11.3% 37

6 Salvador Perez 42 D — WARM 139 0.144 89.1 10.5% 16.9%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 11.9% 28

7 Nick Loftin 41 D — · 148 0.147 86.8 6.9% 10.7%vs RHP 395 9.2% 11.1% 11.2% 25

8 Isaac Collins 36 D — COOL 194 0.111 88.1 7.4% 7.3%vs RHP 394 4.7% 0.0% 7.9% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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