TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.96×

PIT @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 63°F Roof open

Hourly window

-1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

+0 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

+1 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +1

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 39 · vs Jobe ⟷ Spencer Torkelson conv 23 · vs Chandler → edge: Brandon Lowe

ATTACK Jackson Jobe RHP · DET

leak 83

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe — C+ ●●●●●

2 Oneil Cruz — C ●●●●○

3 Ryan O'Hearn — D ●●○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 6

0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · stingy — thin edge

1 Spencer Torkelson — C ●●●●○

2 Riley Greene — C ●●○○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Brandon Lowe: Match 28.1% · 14D pace 50.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PIT Brandon Lowe ✶ HOT vs Jobe Edge — 0.232 · 91.1 · 10.7% 50.0% 28.1% F B O C+ 62

· DET Spencer Torkelson vs Chandler — 0.197 · 89.5 · 8.7% 27.3% 19.4% F B O C 51

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.208 · 93.9 · 12.0% 18.2% 27.4% F B O C 59

· DET Riley Greene COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.196 · 90.0 · 9.8% 16.7% 13.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· DET Hao-Yu Lee vs Chandler — 0.164 · 89.6 · 7.5% 20.0% 9.5% F B O D 44

· DET Dillon Dingler vs Chandler — 0.206 · 88.7 · 8.0% 12.5% 12.0% F B O D 49

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.181 · 89.1 · 7.8% 10.0% 12.4% F B O D 46

· PIT Bryan Reynolds COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.161 · 90.8 · 10.2% 9.1% 9.8% F B O D 46

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Jobe Edge — 0.089 · 85.8 · 4.7% 11.1% 7.3% F B O D 31

· PIT Konnor Griffin COOL vs Jobe — 0.125 · 87.9 · 7.7% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Jobe — 0.086 · 86.4 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 30

· PIT Jared Triolo COOL vs Jobe — 0.065 · 86.3 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 28

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle vs Chandler Edge — 0.149 · 87.9 · 6.8% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 39

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Jobe Edge — 0.121 · 86.8 · 7.3% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 37

· DET Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Chandler Edge — 0.095 · 85.8 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

· DET Gleyber Torres vs Chandler — 0.103 · 86.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jackson Jobe — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Bubba Chandler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz Torkelson Greene Lee

Legend

attack side — vs Jobe fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Brandon Lowe — · 62

Spencer Torkelson — · 51

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.96× Wind 5 mph slight_out 63°F open

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

60°F

6:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

56°F

7:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

54°F

8:40p

↑

5 mph · out

52°F

9:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

50°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.96× 63°F, wind 5 mph NE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Jackson Jobe · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.78 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe ✶ 62 C+ — HOT 19 0.232 91.1 10.7% 27.4%vs RHP 392 19.1% 50.0% 28.1% 26

2 Oneil Cruz 59 C — COOL 29 0.208 93.9 12.0% 41.0%vs RHP 414 22.1% 18.2% 27.4% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 46 D — COOL 102 0.161 90.8 10.2% 13.7%vs RHP 407 10.4% 9.1% 9.8% 31

4 Ryan O'Hearn 46 D — COOL 103 0.181 89.1 7.8% 22.9%vs RHP 385 13.0% 10.0% 12.4% 26

5 Konnor Griffin 37 D — COOL 186 0.125 87.9 7.7% 16.0%vs RHP 401 4.8% 0.0% 9.6% 41

6 Spencer Horwitz 37 D — COOL 187 0.121 86.8 7.3% 12.3%vs RHP 395 8.0% 0.0% 7.8% 11

7 Jake Mangum 31 D — HOT 220 0.089 85.8 4.7% 8.1%vs RHP 394 4.7% 11.1% 7.3% 23

8 Nick Gonzales 30 D — WARM 225 0.086 86.4 5.4% 8.3%vs RHP 397 5.6% 0.0% 8.6% 22

9 Jared Triolo 28 D — COOL 237 0.065 86.3 4.7% 7.4%vs RHP 409 2.3% 0.0% 8.5% 14

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.90 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.41 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Spencer Torkelson 51 C — WARM 61 0.197 89.5 8.7% 26.8%vs RHP 391 15.6% 27.3% 19.4% 21

2 Riley Greene 50 C — COOL 66 0.196 90.0 9.8% 16.9%vs RHP 400 13.1% 16.7% 13.8% 35

3 Dillon Dingler 49 D — WARM 71 0.206 88.7 8.0% 26.1%vs RHP 398 17.0% 12.5% 12.0% 24

4 Hao-Yu Lee 44 D — · 122 0.164 89.6 7.5% 18.2%vs RHP 396 16.0% 20.0% 9.5% 37

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 39 D — WARM 172 0.149 87.9 6.8% 10.8%vs RHP 393 18.2% 0.0% 8.4% 42

6 Gleyber Torres 33 D — · 213 0.103 86.2 6.2% 12.5%vs RHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 6.4% 27

7 Zach Mckinstry 27 D — COOL 240 0.095 85.8 3.6% 5.4%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 6.7% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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