TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ SF

Playable air · 1.06×

LAD @ SF

Oracle Park · 10:15p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph out 67°F Roof open

Hourly window

+3 ↑

7:15p

+1 ↑

8:15p

+0 ↑

9:15p

-2 ↑

10:15p

-4 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +3

Best of game Drew Gilbert conv 22 · vs Skubal ⟷ Kyle Tucker conv 23 · vs Marte → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 95

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · leakiest side of this game

1 Drew Gilbert — D ●●●○○

FADE Yunior Marte RHP · SF

leak 61

1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Tucker — D ●●●●○

2 Mookie Betts — D ●●●○○

3 Max Muncy — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: Match 15.2% · 14D pace 15.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Marte Edge — 0.240 · 89.8 · 11.1% 15.4% 15.2% F B O C 57

· LAD Shohei Ohtani HOT vs Marte Edge — 0.243 · 93.3 · 12.4% 0.0% 18.5% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Marte Edge — 0.156 · 88.6 · 7.9% 33.3% 13.5% F B O D 44

· — Drew Gilbert HOT vs Skubal — 0.158 · 86.8 · 6.4% 28.6% 16.1% F B O D 36

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Marte — 0.194 · 90.4 · 8.7% 16.7% 16.9% F B O D 48

· LAD Tommy Edman COOL vs Marte Edge — 0.139 · 87.4 · 7.3% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 39

· LAD Alex Freeland vs Marte Edge — 0.090 · 89.6 · 7.7% 11.1% 9.1% F B O D 34

· LAD Andy Pages COOL vs Marte — 0.186 · 88.7 · 8.5% 0.0% 13.7% F B O D 45

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez vs Marte — 0.154 · 90.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 39

· LAD Freddie Freeman vs Marte Edge — 0.145 · 89.4 · 8.9% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Yunior Marte — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tarik Skubal — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Tucker Gilbert

Legend

attack side — vs Skubal fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 7 mph out 67°F open

↑

7 mph · out

65°F

7:15p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

62°F

8:15p

↑

5 mph · out

61°F

9:15p

-2

↑

4 mph · slight_out

59°F

10:15p

-4

↑

4 mph · slight_out

57°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 67°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Yunior Marte · RHP 1.40 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 58 C — HOT 32 0.243 93.3 12.4% 25.0%vs RHP 407 17.6% 0.0% 18.5% 2

2 Max Muncy ✶ 57 C — COOL 36 0.240 89.8 11.1% 25.7%vs RHP 410 21.6% 15.4% 15.2% 39

3 Mookie Betts 48 D — WARM 81 0.194 90.4 8.7% 17.1%vs RHP 389 13.0% 16.7% 16.9% 40

4 Andy Pages 45 D — COOL 112 0.186 88.7 8.5% 19.4%vs RHP 390 14.0% 0.0% 13.7% 5

5 Kyle Tucker 44 D — WARM 121 0.156 88.6 7.9% 11.5%vs RHP 392 10.1% 33.3% 13.5% 37

6 Freddie Freeman 40 D — · 163 0.145 89.4 8.9% 13.4%vs RHP 399 9.1% 0.0% 7.6% 33

7 Teoscar Hernandez 39 D — · 167 0.154 90.2 9.9% 14.8%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 30

8 Tommy Edman 39 D — COOL 173 0.139 87.4 7.3% 8.7%vs RHP 396 10.5% 16.7% 8.6% 32

9 Alex Freeland 34 D — WARM 206 0.090 89.6 7.7% 11.8%vs RHP 366 3.6% 11.1% 9.1% 15

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.04 · 1 batter

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Drew Gilbert 36 D — HOT 197 0.158 86.8 6.4% 13.3% 392 8.0% 28.6% 16.1% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

7 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.