TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ CWS

Neutral air · 1.05×

COL @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Munetaka Murakami conv 28 · vs Sugano ⟷ Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Burke → edge: Munetaka Murakami

ATTACK Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · COL

leak 92

1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · leakiest side of this game

1 Munetaka Murakami — B ●●●●○

2 Miguel Vargas — C+ ●●●●○

3 Randal Grichuk — C+ ●●●○○

FADE Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 31

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Ezequiel Tovar — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Munetaka Murakami: Match 37.1% · 14D pace 18.2% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Munetaka Murakami ✶ COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.265 · 93.7 · 14.7% 18.2% 37.1% F B O B 74

· COL Hunter Goodman COOL vs Burke — 0.279 · 89.8 · 10.8% 20.0% 28.4% F B O C+ 65

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Sugano — 0.228 · 90.1 · 12.3% 23.1% 24.5% F B O C+ 67

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Sugano — 0.279 · 91.7 · 11.3% 16.7% 22.0% F B O C+ 64

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Burke Edge — 0.245 · 89.7 · 8.9% 12.5% 17.5% F B O C 56

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.211 · 88.6 · 11.8% 0.0% 17.3% F B O C+ 61

· CWS Tristan Peters COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.177 · 87.3 · 8.0% 0.0% 12.3% F B O C 50

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Sugano Edge — 0.169 · 89.3 · 9.7% 0.0% 12.0% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg vs Burke Edge — 0.186 · 87.9 · 6.7% 23.1% 20.2% F B O D 48

· CWS Chase Meidroth vs Sugano — 0.137 · 87.3 · 7.3% 23.1% 14.8% F B O D 48

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Burke — 0.128 · 87.3 · 7.5% 20.0% 13.2% F B O D 42

· COL Kyle Karros vs Burke — 0.159 · 89.6 · 8.1% 18.2% 9.9% F B O D 46

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.189 · 85.2 · 6.7% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 44

· CWS Braden Montgomery HOT vs Sugano Edge — 0.126 · 88.9 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 43

· COL Tj Rumfield vs Burke Edge — 0.149 · 84.2 · 6.2% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· CWS Sam Antonacci vs Sugano Edge — 0.120 · 87.5 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 43

· COL Troy Johnston COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.118 · 89.7 · 4.2% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Sean Burke — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Tomoyuki Sugano — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Carrigg Karros Tovar Murakami Vargas Grichuk Meidroth

Legend

attack side — vs Sugano fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Hunter Goodman — · 65

Miguel Vargas — · 67

Cole Carrigg — · 48

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.05× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.05× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 65 C+ — COOL 11 0.279 89.8 10.8% 34.2%vs RHP 408 23.3% 20.0% 28.4% 26

2 Mickey Moniak 56 C — WARM 37 0.245 89.7 8.9% 22.7%vs RHP 417 16.7% 12.5% 17.5% 20

3 Cole Carrigg 48 D — · 78 0.186 87.9 6.7% 17.5%vs RHP 407 11.1% 23.1% 20.2% 37

4 Kyle Karros 46 D — WARM 101 0.159 89.6 8.1% 17.4%vs RHP 418 11.9% 18.2% 9.9% 31

5 Jake Mccarthy 44 D — COOL 117 0.189 85.2 6.7% 15.1%vs RHP 415 9.5% 0.0% 12.1% 43

6 Ezequiel Tovar 42 D — WARM 140 0.128 87.3 7.5% 14.3%vs RHP 403 8.3% 20.0% 13.2% 19

7 Tj Rumfield 39 D — · 169 0.149 84.2 6.2% 11.5%vs RHP 412 9.5% 0.0% 9.1% 33

8 Troy Johnston 33 D — COOL 211 0.118 89.7 4.2% 4.0%vs RHP 411 1.9% 0.0% 7.0% 16

vs Tomoyuki Sugano · RHP 1.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.89 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami ✶ 74 B — COOL 2 0.265 93.7 14.7% 36.1%vs RHP 401 18.6% 18.2% 37.1% 17

2 Miguel Vargas 67 C+ — COOL 9 0.228 90.1 12.3% 17.9%vs RHP 393 20.0% 23.1% 24.5% 38

3 Randal Grichuk 64 C+ — · 12 0.279 91.7 11.3% 22.2%vs RHP 389 14.3% 16.7% 22.0% 32

4 Colson Montgomery 61 C+ — COOL 22 0.211 88.6 11.8% 26.6%vs RHP 397 20.3% 0.0% 17.3% 14

5 Andrew Benintendi 52 C — COOL 54 0.169 89.3 9.7% 14.4%vs RHP 388 11.3% 0.0% 12.0% 15

6 Tristan Peters 50 C — COOL 63 0.177 87.3 8.0% 12.9%vs RHP 377 10.3% 0.0% 12.3% 16

7 Chase Meidroth 48 D — WARM 75 0.137 87.3 7.3% 13.9%vs RHP 382 8.6% 23.1% 14.8% 36

8 Braden Montgomery 43 D — HOT 129 0.126 88.9 7.2% 17.2%vs RHP 395 6.1% 0.0% 9.7% 25

9 Sam Antonacci 43 D — WARM 132 0.120 87.5 7.7% 10.1%vs RHP 390 6.8% 0.0% 8.7% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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