TheHomeRuns.org — ATL @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.93×

ATL @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 7:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 2 mph out 82°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-2 ↑

7:10p

-3 ↑

8:10p

-2 ↑

9:10p

-1 ↑

10:10p

+0 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +0

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 17 · vs Proxy ⟷ Matt Olson conv 29 · vs Pérez → edge: Matt Olson

ATTACK ATL Bullpen Proxy · ATL

leak 50

1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers — C ●●●○○

2 Jakob Marsee — D ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja — D ●●○○○

FADE Eury Pérez RHP · MIA

leak 37

1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson — C+ ●●●●○

2 Austin Riley — D ●●●○○

3 Mike Yastrzemski — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Matt Olson: Match 23.8% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATL Matt Olson ✶ COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.257 · 92.4 · 12.2% 33.3% 23.8% F B O C+ 61

· MIA Kyle Stowers vs Proxy — 0.220 · 92.5 · 12.8% 18.2% 15.0% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· ATL Austin Riley vs Pérez — 0.143 · 91.2 · 11.2% 27.3% 15.0% F B O D 44

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.161 · 90.3 · 8.3% 28.6% 13.6% F B O D 41

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Proxy — 0.126 · 87.3 · 3.6% 16.7% 9.6% F B O D 30

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Proxy — 0.161 · 86.9 · 2.7% 16.7% 7.8% F B O D 31

· ATL Ronald Acuna COOL vs Pérez — 0.203 · 89.6 · 11.4% 0.0% 23.6% F B O D 44

· ATL Drake Baldwin COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.172 · 91.3 · 11.3% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 45

· ATL Ozzie Albies vs Pérez Edge — 0.158 · 87.1 · 6.3% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 36

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Proxy — 0.134 · 89.1 · 6.1% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 32

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Proxy — 0.208 · 91.2 · 12.6% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 45

· ATL Michael Harris vs Pérez Edge — 0.194 · 90.4 · 10.1% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 43

· ATL Dominic Smith COOL vs Pérez Edge — 0.121 · 87.7 · 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· ATL Mauricio Dubon vs Pérez — 0.119 · 86.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 28

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Proxy — 0.091 · 86.8 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 22

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Eury Pérez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for ATL Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Olson Riley Yastrzemski Stowers Marsee

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Matt Olson — · 61

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 2 mph out 82°F retractable

-2

↑

3 mph · slight_out

83°F

7:10p

-3

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:10p

-2

↑

4 mph · slight_out

81°F

9:10p

-1

↑

5 mph · slight_out

81°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

80°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 82°F, wind 2 mph NW (out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Eury Pérez · RHP 1.22 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson ✶ 61 C+ — COOL 21 0.257 92.4 12.2% 28.1%vs RHP 406 23.1% 33.3% 23.8% 38

2 Drake Baldwin 45 D — COOL 106 0.172 91.3 11.3% 21.5%vs RHP 401 15.1% 8.3% 9.2% 34

3 Ronald Acuna 44 D — COOL 113 0.203 89.6 11.4% 27.3%vs RHP 400 0.0% 0.0% 23.6% 30

4 Austin Riley 44 D — WARM 119 0.143 91.2 11.2% 18.3%vs RHP 410 10.3% 27.3% 15.0% 24

5 Michael Harris 43 D — · 127 0.194 90.4 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 40

6 Mike Yastrzemski 41 D — COOL 147 0.161 90.3 8.3% 16.2%vs RHP 386 9.0% 28.6% 13.6% 20

7 Ozzie Albies 36 D — · 196 0.158 87.1 6.3% 13.0%vs RHP 388 12.7% 8.3% 7.6% 35

8 Dominic Smith 32 D — COOL 214 0.121 87.7 7.4% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.8% 0.0% 8.0% 1

9 Mauricio Dubon 28 D — WARM 235 0.119 86.4 6.3% 8.9%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 36

vs ATL Bullpen Proxy 1.16 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 53 C — · 67 0.220 92.5 12.8% 17.8% 399 15.2% 18.2% 15.0% 32

2 Heriberto Hernández 45 D — COOL 144 0.208 91.2 12.6% 20.5% 406 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 33

3 Otto Lopez 32 D — · 234 0.134 89.1 6.1% 7.6% 398 6.5% 8.3% 6.2% 36

4 Javier Sanoja 31 D — WARM 238 0.161 86.9 2.7% 8.3% 385 8.8% 16.7% 7.8% 39

5 Jakob Marsee 30 D — COOL 241 0.126 87.3 3.6% 8.3% 386 8.6% 16.7% 9.6% 26

6 Xavier Edwards 22 D — COOL 249 0.091 86.8 3.2% 5.0% 396 3.6% 0.0% 5.8% 12

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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