TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.02×

LAA @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 10:10p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph out 57°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+5 ↑

7:10p

+3 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+3 ↑

10:10p

+1 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +5

Best of game Vaughn Grissom conv 20 · vs Miller ⟷ Randy Arozarena conv 25 · vs Detmers → edge: Randy Arozarena

ATTACK Bryce Miller RHP · SEA

leak 83

1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vaughn Grissom — D ●●●○○

2 Mike Trout — C ●●●○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●●○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 66

0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · stingy — thin edge

1 Randy Arozarena — C ●●●●○

2 Cal Raleigh — C ●●●○○

3 Dominic Canzone — C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Randy Arozarena: Match 25.8% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SEA Randy Arozarena ✶ vs Detmers Edge — 0.199 · 90.9 · 7.8% 25.0% 25.8% F B O C 52

· LAA Mike Trout vs Miller — 0.183 · 90.0 · 11.2% 15.4% 22.3% F B O C 55

· SEA Cal Raleigh vs Detmers Edge — 0.191 · 90.0 · 10.5% 16.7% 20.7% F B O C 52

· SEA Dominic Canzone vs Detmers — 0.219 · 91.1 · 9.6% 8.3% 14.3% F B O C 51

· LAA Zach Neto vs Miller — 0.194 · 89.9 · 9.4% 7.7% 13.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Miller — 0.151 · 87.5 · 7.4% 23.1% 17.8% F B O D 47

· LAA Josh Lowe vs Miller Edge — 0.153 · 88.7 · 8.5% 8.3% 14.5% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Detmers Edge — 0.153 · 90.3 · 8.1% 8.3% 10.0% F B O D 43

· SEA Cole Young vs Detmers — 0.137 · 88.3 · 6.2% 10.0% 7.2% F B O D 38

· SEA J.P. Crawford vs Detmers — 0.128 · 87.8 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 34

· LAA Oswald Peraza vs Miller — 0.109 · 87.6 · 6.9% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 37

· LAA Wade Meckler vs Miller Edge — 0.080 · 87.2 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 33

· SEA Josh Naylor vs Detmers — 0.089 · 87.1 · 5.9% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Bryce Miller — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Reid Detmers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Trout Grissom Arozarena Raleigh

Legend

attack side — vs Miller fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Randy Arozarena — · 52

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 8 mph out 57°F retractable

↑

6 mph · out

56°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · out

55°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · out

54°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

53°F

10:10p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

53°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 57°F, wind 8 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Bryce Miller · RHP 1.62 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.56 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Mike Trout 55 C — WARM 39 0.183 90.0 11.2% 21.6%vs RHP 409 13.1% 15.4% 22.3% 24

2 Zach Neto 53 C — WARM 47 0.194 89.9 9.4% 18.4%vs RHP 404 15.9% 7.7% 13.5% 25

3 Vaughn Grissom 47 D — · 84 0.151 87.5 7.4% 18.9%vs RHP 389 10.9% 23.1% 17.8% 34

4 Josh Lowe 46 D — WARM 96 0.153 88.7 8.5% 19.4%vs RHP 393 9.8% 8.3% 14.5% 15

5 Oswald Peraza 37 D — WARM 183 0.109 87.6 6.9% 8.0%vs RHP 386 4.5% 0.0% 7.9% 9

6 Wade Meckler 33 D — WARM 208 0.080 87.2 4.9% 7.5%vs RHP 396 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% 36

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.96 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Randy Arozarena ✶ 52 C — WARM 49 0.199 90.9 7.8% 32.4%vs LHP 389 15.6% 25.0% 25.8% 34

2 Cal Raleigh 52 C — WARM 52 0.191 90.0 10.5% 26.5%vs LHP 386 16.0% 16.7% 20.7% 27

3 Dominic Canzone 51 C — · 56 0.219 91.1 9.6% 23.8%vs LHP 403 14.3% 8.3% 14.3% 37

4 Julio Rodríguez 43 D — · 134 0.153 90.3 8.1% 17.4%vs LHP 404 14.7% 8.3% 10.0% 37

5 Cole Young 38 D — WARM 179 0.137 88.3 6.2% 7.7%vs LHP 384 10.7% 10.0% 7.2% 30

6 J.P. Crawford 34 D — · 201 0.128 87.8 6.8% 13.3%vs LHP 392 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 41

7 Josh Naylor 30 D — WARM 223 0.089 87.1 5.9% 9.1%vs LHP 392 5.2% 0.0% 7.0% 45

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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