TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.49×

HOU @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 7 mph out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

6:40p

+13 ↑

7:40p

+12 ↑

8:40p

+11 ↑

9:40p

+9 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +14

Best of game Zack Gelof conv 33 · vs Brown ⟷ Isaac Paredes conv 32 · vs Lopez → edge: Zack Gelof

ATTACK Hunter Brown RHP · HOU

leak 86

0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · leakiest side of this game

1 Zack Gelof — C+ ●●●●●

2 Lawrence Butler — C ●●●●○

3 Jeff Mcneil — D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Lopez LHP · ATH

leak 37

1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · stingy — thin edge

1 Isaac Paredes — C ●●●●●

2 Yainer Diaz — C ●●●●○

3 Jeremy Peña — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Zack Gelof: Match 32.5% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Zack Gelof ✶ HOT vs Brown — 0.211 · 89.6 · 8.1% 33.3% 32.5% F B O C+ 62

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Lopez Edge — 0.179 · 86.0 · 5.7% 41.7% 23.0% F B O C 57

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Lopez Edge — 0.178 · 89.1 · 6.8% 27.3% 25.7% F B O C 57

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Brown Edge — 0.159 · 89.9 · 7.3% 25.0% 24.2% F B O C 52

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Lopez Edge — 0.194 · 88.6 · 6.8% 16.7% 24.6% F B O C 58

· HOU Christian Walker vs Lopez Edge — 0.188 · 88.9 · 7.9% 18.2% 16.4% F B O C 59

· HOU Yordan Alvarez vs Lopez — 0.288 · 94.3 · 10.4% 0.0% 32.7% F B O C+ 68

· HOU Taylor Trammell vs Lopez — 0.152 · 88.5 · 9.1% 12.5% 12.2% F B O C 54

· ATH Shea Langeliers COOL vs Brown — 0.219 · 91.5 · 9.3% 0.0% 19.5% F B O C 59

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.179 · 88.6 · 8.8% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 56

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Brown Edge — 0.099 · 86.3 · 3.3% 20.0% 10.1% F B O D 37

· ATH Carlos Cortes vs Brown Edge — 0.150 · 88.4 · 6.2% 11.1% 12.6% F B O D 45

· ATH Henry Bolte vs Brown — 0.128 · 90.8 · 7.1% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 46

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.150 · 85.6 · 5.3% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 44

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Lopez Edge — 0.118 · 85.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 40

· ATH Jonah Heim COOL vs Brown — 0.164 · 87.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 45

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Jacob Lopez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Hunter Brown — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alvarez Walker Peña Diaz Paredes Gelof Butler Mcneil

Legend

attack side — vs Brown fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Zack Gelof — · 62

Isaac Paredes — · 57

Yainer Diaz — · 57

Lawrence Butler — · 52

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 7 mph out 77°F open

+14

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

6:40p · peak

+13

↑

7 mph · out

72°F

7:40p

+12

↑

7 mph · out

68°F

8:40p

+11

↑

6 mph · slight_out

66°F

9:40p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

63°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 77°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Lopez · LHP 1.72 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.07 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 68 C+ — · 7 0.288 94.3 10.4% 22.2%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 32.7% 27

2 Christian Walker 59 C — WARM 28 0.188 88.9 7.9% 21.7%vs LHP 392 17.0% 18.2% 16.4% 24

3 Jeremy Peña 58 C — WARM 31 0.194 88.6 6.8% 10.5%vs LHP 389 15.3% 16.7% 24.6% 24

4 Yainer Diaz 57 C — WARM 33 0.178 89.1 6.8% 20.0%vs LHP 387 12.6% 27.3% 25.7% 35

5 Isaac Paredes 57 C — · 35 0.179 86.0 5.7% 11.4%vs LHP 375 14.5% 41.7% 23.0% 34

6 Cam Smith 56 C — COOL 38 0.179 88.6 8.8% 21.9%vs LHP 410 13.0% 0.0% 15.6% 23

7 Taylor Trammell 54 C — WARM 42 0.152 88.5 9.1% 0.0%vs LHP 406 11.3% 12.5% 12.2% 14

8 Jose Altuve 44 D — COOL 115 0.150 85.6 5.3% 20.0%vs LHP 374 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 37

9 Christian Vazquez 40 D — COOL 156 0.118 85.9 3.8% 9.1%vs LHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 2

vs Hunter Brown · RHP 0.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.37 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof ✶ 62 C+ — HOT 18 0.211 89.6 8.1% 24.6%vs RHP 398 22.2% 33.3% 32.5% 34

2 Shea Langeliers 59 C — COOL 26 0.219 91.5 9.3% 22.2%vs RHP 417 18.6% 0.0% 19.5% 26

3 Lawrence Butler 52 C — WARM 51 0.159 89.9 7.3% 24.1%vs RHP 408 10.1% 25.0% 24.2% 32

4 Henry Bolte 46 D — WARM 100 0.128 90.8 7.1% 14.8%vs RHP 398 11.5% 8.3% 10.7% 27

5 Carlos Cortes 45 D — · 108 0.150 88.4 6.2% 17.2%vs RHP 398 5.5% 11.1% 12.6% 20

6 Jonah Heim 45 D — COOL 109 0.164 87.3 6.1% 6.7%vs RHP 409 7.8% 0.0% 11.7% 22

7 Jeff Mcneil 37 D — COOL 185 0.099 86.3 3.3% 11.3%vs RHP 380 7.7% 20.0% 10.1% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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