TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium is live · 1.21×

BAL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 4:10p · 24 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 13 mph cross 70°F Roof open

Hourly window

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4:10p

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5:10p

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6:10p

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7:10p

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8:10p

best window is early — 5:10p at -4

Best of game Pete Alonso conv 50 · vs Beck ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 43 · vs Proxy → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brendan Beck RHP

leak 100

4.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +4.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Pete Alonso — A ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — B ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson — C ●●●○○

FADE NYY Bullpen Proxy · NYY

leak 48

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso — B ●●●●●

2 Coby Mayo — C+ ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson — C ●●○○○

FADE Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 79

1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — B ●●●●●

2 Cody Bellinger — C ●●●●●

3 Austin Wells — C ●●●●○

FADE Trevor Rogers LHP · BAL

leak 4

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●●●

2 Cody Bellinger — C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells — D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: Match 46.7% · 14D pace 53.8%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Pete Alonso ✶ vs Beck — 0.247 · 93.9 · 14.2% 53.8% 46.7% F B O A 80

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Proxy — 0.247 · 93.9 · 15.0% 53.8% 31.8% F B O B 76

· NYY Ben Rice vs Young Edge — 0.273 · 91.8 · 9.9% 33.3% 34.8% F B O B 71

· NYY Ben Rice vs Rogers — 0.273 · 91.8 · 9.8% 33.3% 28.3% F B O C+ 68

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Young Edge — 0.168 · 89.1 · 6.7% 41.7% 19.6% F B O C 53

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Rogers — 0.168 · 89.1 · 6.7% 41.7% 15.6% F B O C 50

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Young Edge — 0.138 · 89.4 · 7.1% 40.0% 16.8% F B O C 50

· — Coby Mayo vs Beck — 0.238 · 91.3 · 13.6% 15.4% 25.0% F B O B 70

· BAL Coby Mayo vs Proxy — 0.238 · 91.3 · 13.7% 15.4% 19.5% F B O C+ 65

· — Gunnar Henderson vs Beck Edge — 0.179 · 89.2 · 10.2% 15.4% 18.6% F B O C 59

· BAL Gunnar Henderson vs Proxy — 0.179 · 89.2 · 7.7% 15.4% 16.9% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.202 · 86.7 · 8.3% 0.0% 17.2% F B O C 51

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Young — 0.202 · 86.7 · 8.4% 0.0% 15.0% F B O C 53

· — Colton Cowser COOL vs Beck Edge — 0.142 · 87.8 · 11.3% 0.0% 10.9% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells HOT vs Rogers — 0.138 · 89.4 · 7.0% 40.0% 13.3% F B O D 47

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Young Edge — 0.169 · 90.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 16.1% F B O D 49

· NYY Jazz Chisholm COOL vs Rogers — 0.169 · 90.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 12.6% F B O D 46

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Young — 0.135 · 83.9 · 5.4% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 39

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Young Edge — 0.142 · 90.3 · 7.9% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Rogers Edge — 0.135 · 83.9 · 5.3% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 36

· BAL Colton Cowser COOL vs Proxy — 0.142 · 87.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 47

· — Leody Taveras COOL vs Beck Edge — 0.123 · 88.0 · 7.2% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 45

· BAL Leody Taveras COOL vs Proxy — 0.123 · 88.0 · 3.9% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 35

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Rogers — 0.142 · 90.3 · 7.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for NYY Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Young — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Trevor Rogers — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brendan Beck — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Mayo Henderson Rice Bellinger Wells Rice Bellinger Wells Alonso Mayo Henderson

Legend

attack side — vs Beck fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Pete Alonso — · 80

Pete Alonso — · 76

Ben Rice — · 71

Ben Rice — · 68

Cody Bellinger — · 53

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 4:10p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 13 mph cross 70°F open

-5

↑

13 mph · cross

68°F

4:10p

-4

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12 mph · cross

68°F

5:10p · peak

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13 mph · cross

68°F

6:10p

-5

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13 mph · cross

67°F

7:10p

-6

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13 mph · cross

66°F

8:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.21× 70°F, wind 13 mph NNE (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs NYY Bullpen Proxy 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 76 B — WARM 3 0.247 93.9 15.0% 26.6% 400 23.9% 53.8% 31.8% 32

2 Coby Mayo 65 C+ — WARM 20 0.238 91.3 13.7% 19.4% 411 17.6% 15.4% 19.5% 35

3 Gunnar Henderson 51 C — WARM 82 0.179 89.2 7.7% 15.8% 392 14.0% 15.4% 16.9% 29

4 Colton Cowser 47 D — COOL 123 0.142 87.8 9.5% 16.7% 412 13.2% 0.0% 9.7% 18

5 Leody Taveras 35 D — COOL 218 0.123 88.0 3.9% 7.6% 403 4.3% 0.0% 7.8% 17

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.33 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 71 B — · 5 0.273 91.8 9.9% 31.2%vs RHP 392 24.0% 33.3% 34.8% 31

2 Cody Bellinger 53 C — · 45 0.168 89.1 6.7% 14.1%vs RHP 377 12.6% 41.7% 19.6% 39

3 Paul Goldschmidt 53 C — COOL 46 0.202 86.7 8.4% 17.1%vs RHP 390 15.5% 0.0% 15.0% 11

4 Austin Wells 50 C — HOT 65 0.138 89.4 7.1% 17.0%vs RHP 381 10.4% 40.0% 16.8% 18

5 Jazz Chisholm 49 D — COOL 69 0.169 90.4 7.5% 21.5%vs RHP 384 12.5% 0.0% 16.1% 4

6 Ryan Mcmahon 46 D — COOL 92 0.142 90.3 7.9% 18.3%vs RHP 382 8.3% 0.0% 11.7% 18

7 Jose Caballero 39 D — COOL 166 0.135 83.9 5.4% 22.7%vs RHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 18

vs Trevor Rogers · LHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.17 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice 68 C+ — · 8 0.273 91.8 9.8% 31.4%vs LHP 392 24.0% 33.3% 28.3% 31

2 Paul Goldschmidt 51 C — COOL 57 0.202 86.7 8.3% 32.4%vs LHP 390 15.5% 0.0% 17.2% 11

3 Cody Bellinger 50 C — · 62 0.168 89.1 6.7% 12.5%vs LHP 377 12.6% 41.7% 15.6% 39

4 Austin Wells 47 D — HOT 88 0.138 89.4 7.0% 15.0%vs LHP 381 10.4% 40.0% 13.3% 18

5 Jazz Chisholm 46 D — COOL 98 0.169 90.4 7.4% 18.5%vs LHP 384 12.5% 0.0% 12.6% 4

6 Ryan Mcmahon 43 D — COOL 124 0.142 90.3 7.8% 0.0%vs LHP 382 8.3% 0.0% 7.0% 18

7 Jose Caballero 36 D — COOL 190 0.135 83.9 5.3% 22.2%vs LHP 384 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 18

vs Brendan Beck · RHP 4.68 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +4.32 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 80 A — WARM 1 0.247 93.9 14.2% 35.6%vs RHP 400 23.9% 53.8% 46.7% 32

2 Coby Mayo 70 B — WARM 6 0.238 91.3 13.6% 15.4%vs RHP 411 17.6% 15.4% 25.0% 35

3 Gunnar Henderson 59 C — WARM 27 0.179 89.2 10.2% 17.4%vs RHP 392 14.0% 15.4% 18.6% 29

4 Colton Cowser 54 C — COOL 43 0.142 87.8 11.3% 20.0%vs RHP 412 13.2% 0.0% 10.9% 18

5 Leody Taveras 45 D — COOL 111 0.123 88.0 7.2% 11.5%vs RHP 403 4.3% 0.0% 9.0% 17

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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