TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ PHI

Suppressed air · 0.77×

TB @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 12 mph in 68°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:40p

-9 ↑

7:40p

-9 ↑

8:40p

-10 ↑

9:40p

-10 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -9

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 20 · vs Sánchez ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 15 · vs Peralta → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Cristopher Sánchez LHP · PHI

leak 91

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero — C+ ●●●○○

2 Jonathan Aranda — D ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●●○○

FADE Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 77

1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber — C+ ●●○○○

2 Bryce Harper — C ●●○○○

3 Brandon Marsh — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: Match 22.1% · 14D pace 8.3% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.248 · 92.6 · 9.7% 15.4% 25.2% F B O C+ 62

· — Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.273 · 92.2 · 9.8% 8.3% 22.1% F B O C+ 66

· — Bryce Harper COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.218 · 90.1 · 7.9% 8.3% 18.7% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TB Jonathan Aranda COOL vs Sánchez — 0.161 · 91.0 · 8.6% 20.0% 14.5% F B O D 48

· TB Nick Fortes vs Sánchez Edge — 0.110 · 85.6 · 3.8% 20.0% 12.9% F B O D 35

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Sánchez — 0.142 · 88.0 · 5.6% 16.7% 9.1% F B O D 40

· — Brandon Marsh COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.151 · 89.3 · 7.0% 12.5% 12.2% F B O D 47

· — Justin Crawford vs Peralta Edge — 0.092 · 87.0 · 3.2% 11.1% 7.6% F B O D 34

· TB Richie Palacios vs Sánchez — 0.140 · 86.4 · 5.4% 10.0% 7.6% F B O D 38

· TB Yandy Diaz COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.154 · 90.9 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.1% F B O D 40

· TB Jonny Deluca vs Sánchez Edge — 0.152 · 85.8 · 4.7% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 37

· — Trea Turner COOL vs Peralta — 0.139 · 88.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 43

· — J.T. Realmuto vs Peralta — 0.127 · 89.6 · 5.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· — Bryson Stott COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.142 · 89.2 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 42

· — Alec Bohm vs Peralta — 0.137 · 90.6 · 6.1% 0.0% 8.8% F B O D 43

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Sánchez Edge — 0.072 · 85.5 · 3.6% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 28

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Sánchez — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 18

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cristopher Sánchez — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Freddy Peralta — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Fortes Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Sánchez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 12 mph in 68°F open

-9

↑

12 mph · in

68°F

6:40p · peak

-9

↑

12 mph · in

67°F

7:40p

-9

↑

12 mph · in

66°F

8:40p

-10

↑

12 mph · in

65°F

9:40p

-10

↑

12 mph · in

65°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.77× 68°F, wind 12 mph N (in) — modifier: -3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cristopher Sánchez · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero 62 C+ — COOL 17 0.248 92.6 9.7% 30.8%vs LHP 413 24.4% 15.4% 25.2% 35

2 Jonathan Aranda 48 D — COOL 76 0.161 91.0 8.6% 10.0%vs LHP 390 13.1% 20.0% 14.5% 23

3 Yandy Diaz 40 D — COOL 155 0.154 90.9 7.3% 19.1%vs LHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.1% 32

4 Cedric Mullins 40 D — WARM 161 0.142 88.0 5.6% 3.7%vs LHP 386 11.7% 16.7% 9.1% 15

5 Richie Palacios 38 D — WARM 174 0.140 86.4 5.4% 11.6% 385 8.6% 10.0% 7.6% 21

6 Jonny Deluca 37 D — WARM 180 0.152 85.8 4.7% 8.7%vs LHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 21

7 Nick Fortes 35 D — WARM 198 0.110 85.6 3.8% 4.5%vs LHP 390 5.0% 20.0% 12.9% 13

8 Taylor Walls 28 D — COOL 236 0.072 85.5 3.6% 3.3%vs LHP 383 0.8% 0.0% 8.1% 10

9 Chandler Simpson 18 D — COOL 250 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs LHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 42

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.28 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.14 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 66 C+ — COOL 10 0.273 92.2 9.8% 40.0%vs RHP 402 22.8% 8.3% 22.1% 25

2 Bryce Harper 57 C — COOL 34 0.218 90.1 7.9% 33.8%vs RHP 403 16.9% 8.3% 18.7% 34

3 Brandon Marsh 47 D — COOL 87 0.151 89.3 7.0% 17.6%vs RHP 391 10.9% 12.5% 12.2% 18

4 Trea Turner 43 D — COOL 128 0.139 88.3 6.1% 18.6%vs RHP 390 12.0% 0.0% 9.8% 34

5 Alec Bohm 43 D — WARM 131 0.137 90.6 6.1% 12.1%vs RHP 394 9.6% 0.0% 8.8% 38

6 Bryson Stott 42 D — COOL 142 0.142 89.2 6.0% 8.6%vs RHP 393 6.8% 0.0% 9.0% 33

7 J.T. Realmuto 39 D — WARM 168 0.127 89.6 5.8% 17.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 25

8 Justin Crawford 34 D — WARM 204 0.092 87.0 3.2% 3.9%vs RHP 395 2.6% 11.1% 7.6% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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