TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ MIN

Suppressed air · 0.95×

TEX @ MIN

Target Field · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 66°F Roof open

Hourly window

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7:10p

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9:10p

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best window is early — 7:10p at -8

Best of game Josh Jung conv 19 · vs Ryan ⟷ Brooks Lee conv 10 · vs deGrom → edge: Corey Seager

ATTACK Joe Ryan RHP · MIN

leak 84

1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · leakiest side of this game

1 Josh Jung — D ●●●○○

2 Corey Seager — C ●●○○○

3 Wyatt Langford — D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob deGrom RHP · TEX

leak 83

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · stingy — thin edge

1 Brooks Lee — D ●●○○○

2 Josh Bell — D ●○○○○

3 Luke Keaschall — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corey Seager: Match 12.9% · 14D pace 16.7% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Corey Seager ✶ COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.190 · 91.6 · 11.7% 16.7% 12.9% F B O C 52

· TEX Jake Burger vs Ryan — 0.193 · 90.2 · 11.0% 8.3% 11.9% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TEX Josh Jung vs Ryan — 0.154 · 90.7 · 8.2% 27.3% 11.5% F B O D 44

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Ryan — 0.190 · 88.8 · 9.0% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 46

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.177 · 88.1 · 5.8% 8.3% 11.7% F B O D 40

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.160 · 89.8 · 8.6% 8.3% 10.5% F B O D 41

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs deGrom — 0.115 · 85.4 · 5.3% 8.3% 7.2% F B O D 30

· MIN Kody Clemens COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.220 · 91.9 · 9.3% 0.0% 14.5% F B O D 49

· MIN Ryan Jeffers COOL vs deGrom — 0.206 · 88.7 · 9.1% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 45

· TEX Ezequiel Duran COOL vs Ryan — 0.164 · 88.9 · 7.8% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 41

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs deGrom — 0.151 · 89.7 · 9.1% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 40

· TEX Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.145 · 92.0 · 9.5% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 41

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs deGrom Edge — 0.093 · 89.4 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 29

· TEX Evan Carter COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.120 · 87.6 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 34

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Ryan Edge — 0.039 · 84.6 · — 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Joe Ryan — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Jacob deGrom — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Seager Jung

Legend

attack side — vs Ryan fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Target Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 0.95× Wind 6 mph in 66°F open

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6 mph · in

65°F

7:10p · peak

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6 mph · in

64°F

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64°F

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-9

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7 mph · in

63°F

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7 mph · in

62°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 66°F, wind 6 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Joe Ryan · RHP 1.37 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.19 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corey Seager ✶ 52 C — COOL 55 0.190 91.6 11.7% 22.2%vs RHP 397 18.2% 16.7% 12.9% 35

2 Jake Burger 50 C — · 64 0.193 90.2 11.0% 20.0%vs RHP 402 16.0% 8.3% 11.9% 25

3 Wyatt Langford 46 D — WARM 99 0.190 88.8 9.0% 22.4%vs RHP 401 14.3% 8.3% 12.1% 21

4 Josh Jung 44 D — WARM 120 0.154 90.7 8.2% 16.4%vs RHP 381 11.9% 27.3% 11.5% 32

5 Ezequiel Duran 41 D — COOL 150 0.164 88.9 7.8% 19.7%vs RHP 397 12.1% 0.0% 10.1% 32

6 Brandon Nimmo 41 D — COOL 151 0.145 92.0 9.5% 11.1%vs RHP 404 8.8% 0.0% 8.5% 23

7 Evan Carter 34 D — COOL 203 0.120 87.6 7.0% 11.7%vs RHP 380 7.1% 0.0% 7.8% 18

8 Nicky Lopez 16 D — COOL 251 0.039 84.6 — 4.3%vs RHP 397 1.6% 0.0% 6.9% 17

vs Jacob deGrom · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.23 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens 49 D — COOL 70 0.220 91.9 9.3% 20.2%vs RHP 390 17.1% 0.0% 14.5% 36

2 Ryan Jeffers 45 D — COOL 107 0.206 88.7 9.1% 22.9%vs RHP 397 14.8% 0.0% 13.5% 21

3 Josh Bell 41 D — COOL 149 0.160 89.8 8.6% 19.7%vs RHP 407 11.6% 8.3% 10.5% 35

4 Brooks Lee 40 D — COOL 159 0.177 88.1 5.8% 20.4%vs RHP 375 15.8% 8.3% 11.7% 40

5 Royce Lewis 40 D — COOL 162 0.151 89.7 9.1% 14.9%vs RHP 402 12.3% 0.0% 9.0% 31

6 Luke Keaschall 30 D — COOL 222 0.115 85.4 5.3% 9.2%vs RHP 378 7.2% 8.3% 7.2% 43

7 Victor Caratini 29 D — COOL 227 0.093 89.4 7.0% 13.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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