TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ SD

Neutral air · 0.99×

AZ @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph in 79°F Roof open

Hourly window

-6 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -4

Best of game Nolan Arenado conv 35 · vs Proxy ⟷ Manny Machado conv 19 · vs Pfaadt → edge: Corbin Carroll

ATTACK SD Bullpen Proxy · SD

leak 46

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Arenado — C ●●●●●

2 Gabriel Moreno — D ●●●●○

3 Corbin Carroll — C ●●●●○

FADE Brandon Pfaadt RHP · AZ

leak 4

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Manny Machado — D ●●●○○

2 Jackson Merrill — D ●●○○○

3 Ty France — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Corbin Carroll: Match 20.9% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· AZ Nolan Arenado vs Proxy — 0.212 · 85.1 · 6.7% 50.0% 19.9% F B O C 50

· AZ Corbin Carroll ✶ vs Proxy — 0.233 · 91.9 · 12.4% 25.0% 20.9% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Proxy — 0.173 · 89.1 · 7.6% 33.3% 14.1% F B O D 44

· SD Manny Machado COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.190 · 90.1 · 8.4% 23.1% 14.9% F B O D 48

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.187 · 91.6 · 9.6% 15.4% 13.1% F B O D 48

· SD Ty France vs Pfaadt — 0.212 · 91.7 · 8.3% 9.1% 11.2% F B O D 46

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Proxy — 0.163 · 90.7 · 10.7% 9.1% 8.9% F B O D 43

· SD Jake Cronenworth vs Pfaadt Edge — 0.095 · 87.1 · 5.2% 7.7% 8.1% F B O D 29

· SD Fernando Tatis vs Pfaadt — 0.182 · 92.9 · 9.8% 0.0% 14.9% F B O D 42

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Pfaadt — 0.109 · 89.6 · 6.5% 8.3% 6.2% F B O D 32

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Proxy — 0.184 · 90.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 44

· AZ Jose Fernandez COOL vs Proxy — 0.090 · 87.9 · 3.8% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 27

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt COOL vs Proxy — 0.105 · 86.6 · 6.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 31

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Proxy — 0.124 · 87.4 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 28

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Proxy — 0.110 · 87.5 · 2.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· SD Freddy Fermin COOL vs Pfaadt — 0.110 · 87.5 · 5.4% 0.0% 5.3% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SD Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Brandon Pfaadt — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Carroll Arenado Moreno Machado Merrill

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Nolan Arenado — · 50

Corbin Carroll — · 57

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.90× Wind 6 mph in 79°F open

-6

↑

6 mph · cross

80°F

6:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

7:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

8:40p

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

73°F

9:40p · peak

-4

↑

3 mph · cross

72°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 79°F, wind 6 mph NW (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs SD Bullpen Proxy 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll ✶ 57 C — WARM 44 0.233 91.9 12.4% 13.3% 402 13.9% 25.0% 20.9% 31

2 Nolan Arenado 50 C — WARM 90 0.212 85.1 6.7% 16.8% 390 18.2% 50.0% 19.9% 31

3 Gabriel Moreno 44 D — · 153 0.173 89.1 7.6% 12.2% 399 12.7% 33.3% 14.1% 39

4 Ketel Marte 44 D — COOL 154 0.184 90.2 9.2% 13.3% 408 13.6% 0.0% 9.8% 43

5 Tim Tawa 43 D — WARM 164 0.163 90.7 10.7% 15.1% 397 10.2% 9.1% 8.9% 24

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 31 D — COOL 239 0.105 86.6 6.5% 5.6% 415 3.4% 0.0% 7.7% 3

7 Ildemaro Vargas 28 D — COOL 242 0.124 87.4 3.2% 7.4% 396 4.3% 0.0% 6.4% 18

8 Jose Fernandez 27 D — COOL 245 0.090 87.9 3.8% 7.3% 409 0.0% 0.0% 7.9% 6

9 Geraldo Perdomo 25 D — COOL 247 0.110 87.5 2.5% 6.4% 383 5.6% 0.0% 6.2% 33

vs Brandon Pfaadt · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.18 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Manny Machado 48 D — COOL 74 0.190 90.1 8.4% 26.4%vs RHP 398 17.8% 23.1% 14.9% 41

2 Jackson Merrill 48 D — WARM 77 0.187 91.6 9.6% 20.0%vs RHP 411 15.9% 15.4% 13.1% 38

3 Ty France 46 D — · 93 0.212 91.7 8.3% 25.8%vs RHP 390 14.9% 9.1% 11.2% 31

4 Fernando Tatis 42 D — WARM 138 0.182 92.9 9.8% 18.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 14.9% 37

5 Xander Bogaerts 32 D — WARM 215 0.109 89.6 6.5% 16.2%vs RHP 404 7.4% 8.3% 6.2% 30

6 Jake Cronenworth 29 D — WARM 228 0.095 87.1 5.2% 12.0%vs RHP 377 3.7% 7.7% 8.1% 39

7 Freddy Fermin 29 D — COOL 233 0.110 87.5 5.4% 6.2%vs RHP 382 1.8% 0.0% 5.3% 11

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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