TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ TOR

Suppressed air · 0.95×

CIN @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph in 63°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-7 ↑

7:07p

-9 ↑

8:07p

-10 ↑

9:07p

-10 ↑

10:07p

-11 ↑

11:07p

best window is early — 7:07p at -7

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 25 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Elly De La Cruz conv 28 · vs Proxy → edge: Elly De La Cruz

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 89

1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto — C+ ●●●●○

2 George Springer — D ●○○○○

3 Andres Gimenez — D ●○○○○

FADE TOR Bullpen Proxy · TOR

leak 44

1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Elly De La Cruz — C+ ●●●●○

2 Dane Myers — D ●●●○○

3 Eugenio Suarez — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Elly De La Cruz: Match 25.8% · 14D pace 30.8% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Elly De La Cruz ✶ vs Proxy — 0.232 · 94.7 · 15.9% 30.8% 25.8% F B O C+ 66

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Lodolo Edge — 0.220 · 90.6 · 10.9% 23.1% 26.7% F B O C+ 62

· CIN Sal Stewart vs Proxy — 0.200 · 90.4 · 12.3% 7.7% 12.4% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CIN Dane Myers vs Proxy — 0.120 · 89.2 · 4.7% 22.2% 12.2% F B O D 35

· CIN Eugenio Suarez vs Proxy — 0.218 · 88.5 · 11.8% 0.0% 23.0% F B O D 49

· TOR George Springer COOL vs Lodolo Edge — 0.156 · 88.5 · 7.6% 8.3% 9.6% F B O D 45

· CIN Jj Bleday COOL vs Proxy — 0.198 · 88.4 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.4% F B O D 46

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Lodolo — 0.117 · 85.4 · 5.6% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 34

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Lodolo — 0.110 · 86.9 · 4.9% 0.0% 9.7% F B O D 36

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Proxy — 0.166 · 91.0 · 12.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 46

· CIN Matt Mclain COOL vs Proxy — 0.152 · 88.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 40

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Lodolo Edge — 0.098 · 90.5 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 38

· TOR Ernie Clement vs Lodolo Edge — 0.107 · 84.2 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 33

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Lodolo Edge — 0.103 · 86.2 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.1% F B O D 33

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for TOR Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Nick Lodolo — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Myers Okamoto

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Elly De La Cruz — · 66

Kazuma Okamoto — · 62

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof retractable

Park 0.95× Wind 5 mph in 63°F retractable

-7

↑

5 mph · in

61°F

7:07p · peak

-9

↑

6 mph · in

58°F

8:07p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

57°F

9:07p

-10

↑

7 mph · in

56°F

10:07p

-11

↑

8 mph · in

56°F

11:07p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.95× 63°F, wind 5 mph N (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs TOR Bullpen Proxy 1.03 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz ✶ 66 C+ — WARM 15 0.232 94.7 15.9% 27.1% 402 19.4% 30.8% 25.8% 27

2 Sal Stewart 53 C — WARM 68 0.200 90.4 12.3% 21.3% 397 16.7% 7.7% 12.4% 31

3 Eugenio Suarez 49 D — WARM 104 0.218 88.5 11.8% 22.3% 397 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 23

4 Jj Bleday 46 D — COOL 136 0.198 88.4 9.5% 15.4% 389 15.4% 0.0% 11.4% 28

5 Tyler Stephenson 46 D — · 137 0.166 91.0 12.0% 14.0% 392 9.4% 0.0% 9.4% 26

6 Matt Mclain 40 D — COOL 188 0.152 88.0 9.1% 11.2% 391 10.0% 0.0% 8.2% 18

7 Dane Myers 35 D — WARM 217 0.120 89.2 4.7% 12.1% 387 8.1% 22.2% 12.2% 23

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 62 C+ — · 16 0.220 90.6 10.9% 24.4%vs LHP 400 19.1% 23.1% 26.7% 34

2 George Springer 45 D — COOL 110 0.156 88.5 7.6% 12.1%vs LHP 394 10.7% 8.3% 9.6% 33

3 Vladimir Guerrero 38 D — WARM 178 0.098 90.5 7.9% 12.9%vs LHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 29

4 Nathan Lukes 36 D — COOL 193 0.110 86.9 4.9% 14.3%vs LHP 382 7.2% 0.0% 9.7% 33

5 Andres Gimenez 34 D — · 202 0.117 85.4 5.6% 15.0%vs LHP 389 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 27

6 Ernie Clement 33 D — WARM 209 0.107 84.2 4.4% 7.7%vs LHP 376 6.2% 0.0% 7.5% 38

7 Myles Straw 33 D — COOL 210 0.103 86.2 5.0% 4.5%vs LHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 7.1% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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