4
HRs allowed
23.5%
HR rate (pool)
13.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.04
FIP
4.04
xFIP
+0.00
FIP − xFIP gap
#25
Leakiest SP today (of 32, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
53
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 53th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
0 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
29.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
88.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 107.6 EV · 409 ft
max EV allowed 108.9
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR
15D · 4 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 3 — below the fade line
0 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups17
HRs allowed (pool)4
Pool HR rate23.5%
Pool HR/game day2.0
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB13.5% 53
HR/9—
FIP4.04 49
xFIP4.04
FIP − xFIP+0.00 47
Barrel% allowed29.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed88.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-23
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
4 allowed · scored pool
avg 107.6 EV · 409 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 2 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-28
9
1
108.9
2026-06-23
8
3
108.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Camden Yards
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.975
Wind
9 mph from NE
Temp
60°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
6:35p
9
60°
-10
7:35p
7
59°
-8
8:35p
7
58°
-8
9:35p
7
57°
-9
10:35p
7
56°
-9
-9
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 7 mph from NE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
333ft
avg
CF
406ft
avg
RF
318ft
short
vs LHH → RF
354ft
2 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
377ft
2 HRs allowed · deep
Shortest: RF 318 ft
HRs allowed avg 409 ft · n=4
LF wall pushed back/raised in 2022
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
17
4
24%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about TOR Bullpen Proxy
Is TOR Bullpen Proxy likely to give up a home run tonight?
TOR Bullpen Proxy pitches tonight (TOR @ BAL at Camden Yards). This season he has allowed 4 home runs across 2 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has TOR Bullpen Proxy allowed this season?
TOR Bullpen Proxy has allowed 4 home runs across 2 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off TOR Bullpen Proxy?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against TOR Bullpen Proxy include Cam Smith (1), Joc Pederson (1), Taylor Trammell (1) and 1 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.