Slate · 2026-09-08

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2026-09-08

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🔥 High Conviction 2 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#5 Shohei Ohtani vs Nick Lodolo FIP 5.65 HR/FB 22.2% #6 Max Muncy vs Nick Lodolo FIP 5.65 HR/FB 22.2%

📦 STACK Nick Lodolo FIP 5.65 HR/FB 22.2% → #5 Shohei Ohtani, #6 Max Muncy

📦 STACK Bubba Chandler FIP 4.22 HR/FB 15.4% → #9 Munetaka Murakami, #12 Colson Montgomery

📦 STACK Gabriel Hughes FIP 4.12 HR/FB 9.6% → #14 Aaron Judge, #15 Ben Rice

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-09-08. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.6% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Due	BP	Weather	Hit?
1	·Kyle Schwarber (L)	71	·	Hayden Wesneski (RHP) HOU @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	43	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.30 FIP4.64 IP1303.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind4 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
2	·Yordan Alvarez (L)	71	+8.7	Andrew Painter (RHP) HOU @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	38	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV94.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.4% HR/91.19 FIP3.80 IP1239.0 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+3 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind4 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Junior Caminero (R)	66	·	AJ Smith-Shawver (RHP) TB @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	39	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV93.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.0% HR/91.14 FIP4.18 IP1206.8999999999999 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-13 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind2 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-13 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Junior Caminero — Home Run OffAJ Smith-Shawver Exit Velo110.2 mph Angle25.0° Distance455 ft StadiumTruist Park
4	Kazuma Okamoto (R)	66	-4.8	Jack Perkins (RHP) TOR @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls28 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	ATH Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.8% HR/91.47 FIP4.86 IP1296.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+5 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind2 mph W Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+5 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)	Kazuma Okamoto — Home Run OffJack Perkins Exit Velo106.2 mph Angle36.0° Distance387 ft StadiumSutter Health Park
5	·Shohei Ohtani (L)	66	·	Nick Lodolo (LHP) CIN @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	30	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4.2×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.30 FIP4.74 IP1236.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+12 Weather · Dodger Stadium hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+12 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
6	·Max Muncy (L)	65	-3.4	Nick Lodolo (LHP) CIN @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	9	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls46 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.30 FIP4.74 IP1236.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+12 Weather · Dodger Stadium hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+12 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
7	Hunter Goodman (R)	64	·	Cam Schlittler (RHP) COL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	37	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV90.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	NYY Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.6% HR/91.01 FIP3.75 IP1282.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind4 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)	Hunter Goodman — Home Run OffTim Hill Exit Velo97.9 mph Angle33.0° Distance347 ft StadiumYankee Stadium
8	·Esmerlyn Valdez (R)	63	+4.6	Sean Burke (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	16	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls14 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.5×	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1234.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
9	·Munetaka Murakami (L)	63	+3.9	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.7×	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.01 FIP3.95 IP1199.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
10	·Matt Olson (L)	63	+1.6	Freddy Peralta (RHP) TB @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	37	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%9.6% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4.0×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.22 FIP4.08 IP1239.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-15 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind2 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
11	·Aaron Judge	63	·	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) COL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	?HH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	— Form · — SignalUNKNOWN Batted Balls0 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.3×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.36 FIP4.81 IP1279.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-8 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind4 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-8 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
12	·Joc Pederson (L)	66	+0.7	SEA Bullpen Proxy TEX @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.4% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	SEA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.9% HR/91.25 FIP4.05 IP1262.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-9 Weather · T-Mobile Park mild air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp68°F Wind7 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note68°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
13	·Colson Montgomery (L)	62	-0.6	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.5×	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.01 FIP3.95 IP1199.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
14	Pete Alonso (R)	62	·	Tanner Bibee (RHP) CLE @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	34	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.5% Avg EV94.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.12 FIP3.89 IP1237.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+16 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind5 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+16 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)	Pete Alonso — Home Run OffTanner Bibee Exit Velo107.1 mph Angle30.0° Distance420 ft StadiumCamden Yards
15	·Ben Rice (L)	62	·	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) COL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	36	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.36 FIP4.81 IP1279.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-7 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind4 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
16	·Zack Gelof (R)	60	-1.3	José Soriano (RHP) TOR @ ATH · Sutter Health Park	9:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%8.5% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP3.85 IP1197.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Sutter Health Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp86°F Wind2 mph W Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note86°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
17	·Brandon Lowe (L)	59	+1.3	Sean Burke (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV91.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1234.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
18	·Heriberto Hernández (R)	59	·	Sean Manaea (LHP) NYM @ MIA · loanDepot Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%12.0% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.7×	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.14 FIP4.16 IP1398.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-24 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp82°F Wind9 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-24 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note82°F, wind 9 mph SE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
19	·Luis García Jr. (L)	59	·	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) COL @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.36 FIP4.81 IP1279.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-7 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · light wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp76°F Wind4 mph NNE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-7 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note76°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
20	·Michael Harris II (L)	58	·	Freddy Peralta (RHP) TB @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	24	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.1% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.2×	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.22 FIP4.08 IP1239.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-15 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind2 mph SSW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 2 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
21	·Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)	58	+4.8	Jacob Misiorowski (RHP) CHC @ MIL · American Family Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	41	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%7.6% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.3×	MIL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.5% HR/91.08 FIP3.71 IP1228.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-13 Weather · American Family Field warm air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp77°F Wind8 mph SSE Characterin HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-13 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note77°F, wind 8 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
22	·Oneil Cruz (L)	58	-1.6	Sean Burke (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	17	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV95.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3.7×	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.09 FIP4.20 IP1234.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
23	·James Wood (L)	58	-9.9	Casey Mize (RHP) WSH @ SD · Petco Park	9:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	30	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV95.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	7.5×	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.4% HR/91.06 FIP4.12 IP1212.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-38 Weather · Petco Park hot air · steady wind in · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp90°F Wind9 mph NNW Characterin HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind-38 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
24	·Miguel Vargas (R)	58	+3.0	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	30	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.6×	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.2% HR/91.01 FIP3.95 IP1199.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
25	·Sal Stewart (R)	57	-4.6	Tarik Skubal (LHP) CIN @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	31	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls40 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.0×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.20 FIP4.03 IP1244.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+11 Weather · Dodger Stadium hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
26	·Cal Raleigh (S)	57	-12.9	Cal Quantrill (RHP) TEX @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	9:40p	🟠 C	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	21	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV89.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.24 FIP4.17 IP1222.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · T-Mobile Park mild air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp68°F Wind7 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note68°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
27	·Bryce Harper (L)	57	·	Hayden Wesneski (RHP) HOU @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	27	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2.2×	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.30 FIP4.64 IP1303.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp78°F Wind4 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note78°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
28	·Coby Mayo (R)	57	·	Tanner Bibee (RHP) CLE @ BAL · Camden Yards	6:35p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.2×	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.12 FIP3.89 IP1237.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+18 Weather · Camden Yards warm air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind5 mph SE Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+18 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Elly De La Cruz (S)	57	-4.6	Tarik Skubal (LHP) CIN @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	SHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	25	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV94.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	0.0×	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.20 FIP4.03 IP1244.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+11 Weather · Dodger Stadium hot air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind5 mph W Characterslight_out HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)	Elly De La Cruz — Home Run OffTarik Skubal Exit Velo109.4 mph Angle31.0° Distance444 ft StadiumDodger Stadium
30	·Carter Jensen (L)	60	+4.9	AZ Bullpen Proxy AZ @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs ?HP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV91.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1.0×	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.8% HR/91.12 FIP4.31 IP1240.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+28 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93°F Wind13 mph SSE Characterslight_out HR Modifier6 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 13 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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237 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

16.9%

— flat

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.9% prior 15d

Results · 2026-09-08

27 HRs

37%

10 caught / 27 HRs

in top 50

#3 Junior Caminero

35.6%

🔵

#4 Kazuma Okamoto

26.5%

🔵

#7 Hunter Goodman

28.5%

🔵

#13 Pete Alonso

26.2%

🔵

#31 Elly De La Cruz

20.6%

🟠

#32 Corey Seager

14.5%

🟠

#35 Rafael Flores Jr.

18.2%

🟠

#37 Christian Walker

15.3%

🟠

#41 Kody Clemens

24.1%

🟠

#48 Juan Soto

23.9%

🟠

Missed

Cam Smith Jackson Chourio Yandy Díaz Kyle Teel Zach Neto +12 more

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 20.0%

C+ 17.1%

C 13.7%

D 9.0%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Slate · 2026-09-08

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.