0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
0.0%
Overall HR/FB
2.65
FIP
4.21
xFIP
#30
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
3
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 3th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 58.0%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 2
Long shots · 6 — below the fade line
No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal.
5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
58.0%
86.9
22.6°
0
-2.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB0.0% 3
HR/9—
FIP2.65 7
xFIP4.21
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-19
Fastball
Hard · 58.0% usage
-2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.9 mph
Avg launch angle22.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches40
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for AJ Smith-Shawver.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Target Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.942
Wind
3 mph from WNW
Temp
75°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
12:40p
3
75°
+1
1:40p
3
77°
+2
2:40p
3
78°
+2
3:40p
4
80°
+3
4:40p
4
79°
+3
+2
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 3 mph from WNW
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
339ft
deep
CF
404ft
avg
RF
328ft
avg
vs LHH → RF
340ft
0 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
357ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 328 ft
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for AJ Smith-Shawver.
Common questions about AJ Smith-Shawver
Is AJ Smith-Shawver likely to give up a home run tonight?
AJ Smith-Shawver pitches tonight (ATL @ MIN at Target Field). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
Which batters have homered off AJ Smith-Shawver?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against AJ Smith-Shawver include Jonathan Aranda (1), Junior Caminero (1), Michael Toglia (1).
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.