5
HRs allowed
14.7%
HR rate (pool)
5.7%
Overall HR/FB
3.79
FIP
4.94
xFIP
-1.16
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
5
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 5th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
17.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
67.6%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.4 EV · 401 ft
max EV allowed 110.2
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 4 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against AJ Smith-Shawver.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups34
HRs allowed (pool)5
Pool HR rate14.7%
Pool HR/game day1.25
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB5.7% 5
HR/9—
FIP3.79 37
xFIP4.94
FIP − xFIP-1.16 3
Barrel% allowed17.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed67.6%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-03
No arsenal data cached for this pitcher.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against AJ Smith-Shawver.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
5 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.4 EV · 401 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 4 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-08
9
4
110.2
2026-09-01
8
0
104.5
2026-08-26
9
1
106.7
2026-08-19
8
0
110.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — AJ Smith-Shawver isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
AJ Smith-Shawver isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
18
5
28%
8
0
0%
8
0
0%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about AJ Smith-Shawver
How many home runs has AJ Smith-Shawver allowed this season?
AJ Smith-Shawver has allowed 5 home runs across 4 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off AJ Smith-Shawver?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against AJ Smith-Shawver include Junior Caminero (2), Jonathan Aranda (1), Liam Hicks (1) and 4 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.