TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ SD

Playable air · 1.07×

WSH @ SD

Petco Park · 9:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 9 mph in 90°F Roof open

Hourly window

-9 ↑

6:40p

-9 ↑

7:40p

-9 ↑

8:40p

-8 ↑

9:40p

-8 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -8

Best of game Ty France conv 20 · vs Cornelio ⟷ Cj Abrams conv 23 · vs Mize → edge: Cj Abrams

ATTACK Riley Cornelio RHP

leak 97

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.72 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +575 C ●●●○○

2 Manny Machado +475 C ●●●○○

3 Fernando Tatis — D ●○○○○

FADE Casey Mize RHP · DET

leak 10

1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cj Abrams +425 C ●●●●○

2 Daylen Lile +500 D ●●●○○

3 Dylan Crews +525 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Cj Abrams: Match 13.3% · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Cj Abrams ✶ vs Mize Edge +425 0.235 · 89.6 · 9.0% 33.3% 13.3% F B O C 51

· — Ty France COOL vs Cornelio +575 0.219 · 91.9 · 9.2% 16.7% 23.6% F B O C 52

· — Manny Machado COOL vs Cornelio +475 0.192 · 90.4 · 9.2% 18.2% 19.7% F B O C 50

· — James Wood vs Mize Edge +305 0.264 · 95.2 · 12.9% 0.0% 14.8% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· — Daylen Lile HOT vs Mize Edge +500 0.185 · 88.7 · 8.6% 23.1% 14.9% F B O D 44

· — Fernando Tatis COOL vs Cornelio — 0.168 · 92.9 · 10.6% 0.0% 17.2% F B O D 43

· — Dylan Crews COOL vs Mize +525 0.144 · 90.4 · 8.5% 8.3% 8.0% F B O D 39

· — Jackson Merrill vs Cornelio Edge +475 0.174 · 91.0 · 10.2% 8.3% 7.6% F B O D 46

· — Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Cornelio Edge +850 0.083 · 87.1 · 5.1% 9.1% 4.8% F B O D 28

· — Xander Bogaerts vs Cornelio +750 0.101 · 89.2 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 33

· — Jacob Young COOL vs Mize — 0.143 · 87.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 33

· — Freddy Fermin HOT vs Cornelio — 0.108 · 87.6 · 6.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 31

· — Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Mize Edge — 0.085 · 82.5 · 5.2% 0.0% 5.5% F B O D 25

· — Nasim Nunez vs Mize Edge — 0.034 · 85.0 · 2.7% 0.0% 4.9% F B O D 16

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 44.7% BRK 32.0% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

James Wood L Edge

19.9% 27.7% 10.0% 20.7% C 58 +305

Cj Abrams L Edge

9.9% 9.8% 11.1% 10.1% C 51 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Daylen Lile L Edge

9.3% 13.5% 3.9% 9.2% D 44 +500

152

Dylan Crews R

6.4% 15.7% 8.7% 8.5% D 39 +525

184

Jacob Young R

7.4% 4.3% 2.8% 6.0% D 33 —

210

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.5% 3.8% 2.6% 3.4% D 25 —

217

Nasim Nunez S Edge

1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 16 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mize's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

BRK 50.8% ← leak FB 49.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Ty France R

10.5% 8.9% 9.4% C 52 +575

Manny Machado R

5.4% 12.1% 9.8% C 50 +475

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jackson Merrill L Edge

11.2% 13.1% 11.7% D 46 +475

106

Fernando Tatis R

14.8% 11.1% 12.8% D 43 —

183

Xander Bogaerts R

4.3% 6.9% 5.9% D 33 +750

197

Freddy Fermin R

4.7% 3.6% 4.2% D 31 —

208

Jake Cronenworth L Edge

2.3% 3.2% 3.0% D 28 +850

Read the columns: the breaking family (50.8% usage) carries Cornelio's damage — BRK is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Abrams Lile France Machado

Legend

attack side — vs Cornelio fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Petco Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 9 mph in 90°F open

-9

↑

9 mph · in

90°F

6:40p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

87°F

7:40p

-9

↑

8 mph · in

85°F

8:40p

-8

↑

7 mph · in

83°F

9:40p · peak

-8

↑

7 mph · in

82°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.07× 90°F, wind 9 mph NNW (in) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Casey Mize · RHP 1.04 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood 58 C +305 · 20 0.264 95.2 12.9% 35.6%vs RHP 413 24.8% 0.0% 14.8% 11

2 Cj Abrams ✶ 51 C +425 · 55 0.235 89.6 9.0% 28.1%vs RHP 396 33.3% 33.3% 13.3% 25

3 Daylen Lile 44 D +500 HOT 96 0.185 88.7 8.6% 14.1%vs RHP 400 11.7% 23.1% 14.9% 31

4 Dylan Crews 39 D +525 COOL 152 0.144 90.4 8.5% 11.6%vs RHP 407 14.1% 8.3% 8.0% 28

5 Jacob Young 33 D — COOL 184 0.143 87.7 7.0% 12.1%vs RHP 399 6.7% 0.0% 8.0% 22

6 Jorbit Vivas 25 D — COOL 210 0.085 82.5 5.2% 6.2%vs RHP 392 2.4% 0.0% 5.5% 22

7 Nasim Nunez 16 D — WARM 217 0.034 85.0 2.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% 22

vs Riley Cornelio · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.72 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France 52 C +575 COOL 47 0.219 91.9 9.2% 27.8%vs RHP 390 15.9% 16.7% 23.6% 28

2 Manny Machado 50 C +475 COOL 59 0.192 90.4 9.2% 26.3%vs RHP 398 17.5% 18.2% 19.7% 29

3 Jackson Merrill 46 D +475 WARM 86 0.174 91.0 10.2% 20.0%vs RHP 412 15.4% 8.3% 7.6% 33

4 Fernando Tatis 43 D — COOL 106 0.168 92.9 10.6% 14.7%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 17.2% 38

5 Xander Bogaerts 33 D +750 WARM 183 0.101 89.2 7.2% 15.6%vs RHP 400 7.5% 0.0% 8.5% 28

6 Freddy Fermin 31 D — HOT 197 0.108 87.6 6.0% 6.5%vs RHP 382 2.2% 0.0% 7.4% 9

7 Jake Cronenworth 28 D +850 COOL 208 0.083 87.1 5.1% 7.5%vs RHP 382 3.2% 9.1% 4.8% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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