TheHomeRuns.org — CHC @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.92×

CHC @ MIL

American Family Field · 7:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 77°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-8 ↑

6:40p

-7 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-3 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks -3

Best of game Jackson Chourio conv 22 · vs Peterson ⟷ Pete Crow-Armstrong conv 32 · vs Misiorowski → edge: Pete Crow-Armstrong

ATTACK David Peterson LHP · CHC

leak 95

1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jackson Chourio +500 C ●●●○○

2 Jake Bauers — C ●●○○○

3 William Contreras +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Jacob Misiorowski RHP · MIL

leak 54

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 C ●●●●●

2 Alex Bregman +850 D ●●●○○

3 Carson Kelly +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Crow-Armstrong: 13.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 38.5% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ HOT vs Misiorowski Edge +400 0.292 · 90.5 · 7.6% 38.5% 26.2% F B O C 58

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Peterson Edge +500 0.192 · 91.9 · 9.0% 23.1% 21.1% F B O C 50

· MIL Jake Bauers COOL vs Peterson — 0.223 · 92.4 · 9.4% 11.1% 19.5% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Misiorowski +850 0.182 · 88.1 · 5.0% 23.1% 20.0% F B O D 39

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Misiorowski +850 0.126 · 87.3 · 4.9% 20.0% 12.7% F B O D 32

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Misiorowski +575 0.210 · 88.4 · 6.6% 15.4% 14.9% F B O D 43

· CHC Michael Busch vs Misiorowski Edge +625 0.155 · 88.4 · 6.2% 16.7% 9.8% F B O D 36

· MIL William Contreras vs Peterson Edge +700 0.136 · 90.2 · 7.3% 16.7% 8.6% F B O D 39

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Misiorowski Edge +700 0.195 · 89.2 · 7.0% 12.5% 12.0% F B O D 42

· MIL Christian Yelich vs Peterson +750 0.145 · 89.2 · 8.1% 10.0% 9.3% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Peterson Edge +950 0.132 · 88.8 · 5.2% 11.1% 7.0% F B O D 34

· MIL Brice Turang COOL vs Peterson +950 0.168 · 90.2 · 6.9% 8.3% 9.2% F B O D 40

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Misiorowski — 0.095 · 86.0 · 2.5% 7.7% 7.2% F B O D 22

· MIL Garrett Mitchell vs Peterson +750 0.153 · 93.1 · 8.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 40

· MIL David Hamilton COOL vs Peterson — 0.094 · 87.0 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 76.8% ← leak BRK 21.7% OFF 1.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

11.4% 17.6% 12.8% 13.4% C 58 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

108

Seiya Suzuki R

10.7% 8.8% 10.3% 10.0% D 43 +575

118

Ian Happ S Edge

15.0% 14.0% 2.4% 11.5% D 42 +700

146

Alex Bregman R

4.3% 8.4% 7.3% 5.7% D 39 +850

165

Michael Busch L Edge

11.8% 5.3% 1.9% 9.0% D 36 +625

190

Carson Kelly R

6.6% 3.7% 4.3% 5.5% D 32 +850

214

Nico Hoerner R

1.5% 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% D 22 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (76.8% usage) carries Misiorowski's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 32.6% OFF 13.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Jake Bauers L

14.1% 13.1% 12.2% 13.6% C 53 —

Jackson Chourio R Edge

13.8% 11.5% 6.5% 12.1% C 50 +500

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

135

Garrett Mitchell L

14.2% 11.4% 5.4% 12.1% D 40 +750

137

Brice Turang L

8.1% 9.3% 1.5% 7.3% D 40 +950

148

Christian Yelich L

9.8% 8.5% 11.8% 9.7% D 39 +750

151

William Contreras R Edge

8.6% 9.5% 0.0% 7.9% D 39 +700

178

Joey Ortiz R Edge

4.3% 5.3% 0.0% 4.3% D 34 +950

203

David Hamilton L

3.2% 5.5% 0.0% 3.3% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Peterson's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Bregman Busch Kelly Bauers Chourio

Legend

attack side — vs Peterson fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong +400 · 58

Jackson Chourio +500 · 50

Alex Bregman +850 · 39

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.92× Wind 8 mph in 77°F retractable

-8

↑

8 mph · in

77°F

6:40p

-7

↑

7 mph · in

75°F

7:40p

-5

↑

6 mph · cross

74°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

9:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

71°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.92× 77°F, wind 8 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jacob Misiorowski · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong ✶ 58 C +400 HOT 18 0.292 90.5 7.6% 26.9%vs RHP 397 23.4% 38.5% 26.2% 37

2 Seiya Suzuki 43 D +575 · 108 0.210 88.4 6.6% 20.0%vs RHP 406 16.4% 15.4% 14.9% 38

3 Ian Happ 42 D +700 COOL 118 0.195 89.2 7.0% 24.4%vs RHP 402 17.5% 12.5% 12.0% 22

4 Alex Bregman 39 D +850 WARM 146 0.182 88.1 5.0% 18.3%vs RHP 390 12.7% 23.1% 20.0% 42

5 Michael Busch 36 D +625 · 165 0.155 88.4 6.2% 12.8%vs RHP 403 13.2% 16.7% 9.8% 34

6 Carson Kelly 32 D +850 · 190 0.126 87.3 4.9% 9.5%vs RHP 403 8.7% 20.0% 12.7% 24

7 Nico Hoerner 22 D — WARM 214 0.095 86.0 2.5% 6.9%vs RHP 383 5.6% 7.7% 7.2% 43

vs David Peterson · LHP 1.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.25 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers 53 C — COOL 42 0.223 92.4 9.4% 21.4%vs LHP 402 19.1% 11.1% 19.5% 16

2 Jackson Chourio 50 C +500 COOL 58 0.192 91.9 9.0% 28.0%vs LHP 399 16.3% 23.1% 21.1% 44

3 Garrett Mitchell 40 D +750 WARM 135 0.153 93.1 8.8% 16.7%vs LHP 415 7.1% 0.0% 10.0% 24

4 Brice Turang 40 D +950 COOL 137 0.168 90.2 6.9% 5.0%vs LHP 407 10.2% 8.3% 9.2% 31

5 Christian Yelich 39 D +750 · 148 0.145 89.2 8.1% 15.4%vs LHP 400 8.2% 10.0% 9.3% 32

6 William Contreras 39 D +700 · 151 0.136 90.2 7.3% 13.3%vs LHP 413 10.0% 16.7% 8.6% 35

7 Joey Ortiz 34 D +950 · 178 0.132 88.8 5.2% 11.1%vs LHP 390 7.4% 11.1% 7.0% 27

8 David Hamilton 29 D — COOL 203 0.094 87.0 4.6% 20.0%vs LHP 386 4.3% 0.0% 8.9% 32

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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