TheHomeRuns.org — LAA @ BOS

Suppressed air · 0.93×

LAA @ BOS

Fenway Park · 6:45p · 9 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 5 mph cross 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

-2 ↑

6:45p

+0 ↑

7:45p

+0 ↑

8:45p

-1 ↑

9:45p

-1 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 7:45p at +0

Best of game Vaughn Grissom conv 14 · vs Sandoval ⟷ Jarren Duran conv 18 · vs Detmers → edge: Wilyer Abreu

ATTACK Patrick Sandoval LHP · BOS

leak 76

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Vaughn Grissom +950 D ●●○○○

2 Zach Neto +500 D ●●○○○

3 Josh Lowe — D ●○○○○

FADE Reid Detmers LHP · LAA

leak 42

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · stingy — thin edge

1 Jarren Duran — D ●●●○○

2 Wilyer Abreu +500 D ●●○○○

3 Andruw Monasterio — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Wilyer Abreu: 12.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 15.4% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Detmers — 0.153 · 90.0 · 8.3% 25.0% 10.0% F B O D 42

· LAA Vaughn Grissom vs Sandoval Edge +950 0.141 · 87.9 · 7.3% 16.7% 11.2% F B O D 39

· BOS Wilyer Abreu ✶ COOL vs Detmers +500 0.207 · 89.8 · 9.5% 15.4% 11.7% F B O D 48

· LAA Zach Neto vs Sandoval Edge +500 0.191 · 89.7 · 9.2% 9.1% 11.3% F B O D 48

· LAA Josh Lowe COOL vs Sandoval — 0.149 · 88.6 · 7.7% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 40

· LAA Mike Trout vs Sandoval Edge +500 0.181 · 89.9 · 10.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 47

· BOS Andruw Monasterio COOL vs Detmers Edge — 0.148 · 87.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 35

· LAA Oswald Peraza COOL vs Sandoval Edge +850 0.116 · 87.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 34

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Detmers Edge +850 0.131 · 83.4 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 29

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.8% ← leak BRK 34.0% OFF 24.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Zach Neto R Edge

13.6% 8.7% 8.3% 11.5% D 48 +500

Mike Trout R Edge

15.3% 18.6% 10.0% 15.4% D 47 +500

138

Josh Lowe L

11.2% 4.3% 4.8% 8.1% D 40 —

145

Vaughn Grissom R Edge

9.5% 6.1% 2.4% 7.3% D 39 +950

176

Oswald Peraza R Edge

5.8% 6.2% 10.0% 6.5% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.8% usage) carries Sandoval's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 46.5% ← leak BRK 43.9% OFF 9.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Wilyer Abreu L

11.1% 15.0% 11.1% 12.0% D 48 +500

119

Jarren Duran L

11.2% 8.2% 6.5% 9.4% D 42 —

172

Andruw Monasterio R Edge

6.8% 6.1% 10.5% 6.8% D 35 —

204

Caleb Durbin R Edge

2.9% 1.9% 2.5% 2.6% D 29 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (46.5% usage) carries Detmers's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Grissom Abreu Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Sandoval fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.93× Wind 5 mph cross 72°F open

-2

↑

5 mph · cross

72°F

6:45p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

70°F

7:45p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

68°F

8:45p

-1

↑

3 mph · slight_out

66°F

9:45p

-1

↑

2 mph · slight_out

64°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.93× 72°F, wind 5 mph SE (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Patrick Sandoval · LHP 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zach Neto 48 D +500 · 71 0.191 89.7 9.2% 15.8%vs LHP 404 15.4% 9.1% 11.3% 23

2 Mike Trout 47 D +500 · 81 0.181 89.9 10.7% 16.7%vs LHP 409 13.1% 0.0% 10.8% 31

3 Josh Lowe 40 D — COOL 138 0.149 88.6 7.7% 0.0%vs LHP 394 10.0% 9.1% 8.7% 15

4 Vaughn Grissom 39 D +950 WARM 145 0.141 87.9 7.3% 3.7%vs LHP 391 9.1% 16.7% 11.2% 37

5 Oswald Peraza 34 D +850 COOL 176 0.116 87.1 6.9% 22.7%vs LHP 386 5.0% 0.0% 8.5% 12

vs Reid Detmers · LHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.15 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Wilyer Abreu ✶ 48 D +500 COOL 69 0.207 89.8 9.5% 17.6%vs LHP 406 15.7% 15.4% 11.7% 35

2 Jarren Duran 42 D — WARM 119 0.153 90.0 8.3% 11.1%vs LHP 400 14.2% 25.0% 10.0% 32

3 Andruw Monasterio 35 D — COOL 172 0.148 87.8 7.1% 17.9%vs LHP 390 10.2% 0.0% 8.7% 19

4 Caleb Durbin 29 D +850 COOL 204 0.131 83.4 4.4% 12.5%vs LHP 376 8.1% 0.0% 7.2% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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