TheHomeRuns.org — TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park is live · 1.49×

TOR @ ATH

Sutter Health Park · 9:40p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.24× Wind 2 mph out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+10 ↑

6:40p

+10 ↑

7:40p

+9 ↑

8:40p

+9 ↑

9:40p

+8 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +10

Best of game Kazuma Okamoto conv 26 · vs Perkins ⟷ Zack Gelof conv 25 · vs Soriano → edge: Kazuma Okamoto

ATTACK Jack Perkins RHP · ATH

leak 67

1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kazuma Okamoto +350 C+ ●●●●○

2 George Springer +425 C ●●●○○

3 Nathan Lukes +850 D ●●○○○

FADE José Soriano RHP · LAA

leak 14

0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · stingy — thin edge

1 Zack Gelof +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Jonah Heim +750 C ●●●○○

3 Lawrence Butler +625 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kazuma Okamoto: 13.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto ✶ vs Perkins +350 0.211 · 90.5 · 10.4% 25.0% 26.5% F B O C+ 66

· — Zack Gelof vs Soriano +500 0.211 · 89.2 · 8.5% 23.1% 27.6% F B O C+ 60

· TOR George Springer vs Perkins +425 0.164 · 88.5 · 7.5% 20.0% 17.3% F B O C 53

· — Jonah Heim vs Soriano Edge +750 0.177 · 88.0 · 7.1% 16.7% 16.7% F B O C 50

· TOR Jesús Sánchez COOL vs Perkins Edge — 0.159 · 90.9 · 9.6% 0.0% 13.8% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Lawrence Butler vs Soriano Edge +625 0.140 · 90.0 · 7.6% 15.4% 17.3% F B O D 49

· TOR Nathan Lukes vs Perkins Edge +850 0.120 · 87.1 · 4.7% 16.7% 11.7% F B O D 44

· — Henry Bolte vs Soriano +950 0.112 · 91.0 · 7.3% 15.4% 9.6% F B O D 45

· — Jeff Mcneil vs Soriano Edge +850 0.105 · 86.7 · 3.8% 12.5% 10.3% F B O D 38

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Perkins Edge +950 0.110 · 85.5 · 5.3% 0.0% 10.3% F B O D 39

· TOR Vladimir Guerrero vs Perkins — 0.094 · 90.5 · 7.5% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 43

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Perkins +950 0.111 · 84.0 · 4.2% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 39

· TOR Myles Straw COOL vs Perkins — 0.112 · 86.2 · 5.1% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 49.7% ← leak BRK 32.1% OFF 18.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Kazuma Okamoto R

13.5% 9.9% 20.7% 13.0% C+ 66 +350

George Springer R

6.2% 7.8% 6.1% 6.7% C 53 +425

Jesús Sánchez L Edge

10.7% 17.5% 0.0% 11.0% C 53 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Nathan Lukes L Edge

1.6% 3.0% 5.8% 2.6% D 44 +850

111

Vladimir Guerrero R

6.2% 9.6% 1.8% 6.6% D 43 —

141

Myles Straw R

3.7% 0.0% 4.8% 3.1% D 40 —

144

Andres Gimenez L Edge

3.8% 2.0% 3.9% 3.3% D 39 +950

150

Ernie Clement R

2.2% 2.1% 1.5% 2.1% D 39 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (49.7% usage) carries Perkins's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.1% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 18.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Zack Gelof R

10.8% 6.4% 14.3% 9.7% C+ 60 +500

Jonah Heim S Edge

6.4% 3.6% 10.5% 6.7% C 50 +750

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Lawrence Butler L Edge

8.2% 10.3% 3.2% 7.5% D 49 +625

Henry Bolte R

7.4% 8.1% 3.6% 7.1% D 45 +950

154

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

1.4% 2.5% 2.7% 1.9% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.1% usage) carries Soriano's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 5 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Okamoto Springer Lukes Gelof Heim Butler

Legend

attack side — vs Perkins fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kazuma Okamoto +350 · 66

Zack Gelof +500 · 60

Stadium conditions

Sutter Health Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.24× Wind 2 mph out 88°F open

+10

↑

2 mph · out

88°F

6:40p · peak

+10

↑

2 mph · out

84°F

7:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

81°F

8:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

79°F

9:40p

↑

2 mph · slight_out

77°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.49× 88°F, wind 2 mph W (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Jack Perkins · RHP 1.65 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto ✶ 66 C+ +350 · 3 0.211 90.5 10.4% 26.3%vs RHP 400 18.2% 25.0% 26.5% 28

2 George Springer 53 C +425 WARM 43 0.164 88.5 7.5% 19.6%vs RHP 395 11.0% 20.0% 17.3% 31

3 Jesús Sánchez 53 C — COOL 44 0.159 90.9 9.6% 17.0%vs RHP 398 9.1% 0.0% 13.8% 12

4 Nathan Lukes 44 D +850 WARM 98 0.120 87.1 4.7% 16.4%vs RHP 382 8.0% 16.7% 11.7% 39

5 Vladimir Guerrero 43 D — WARM 111 0.094 90.5 7.5% 9.4%vs RHP 408 0.0% 0.0% 9.2% 44

6 Myles Straw 40 D — COOL 141 0.112 86.2 5.1% 4.2%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 23

7 Andres Gimenez 39 D +950 WARM 144 0.110 85.5 5.3% 9.8%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 24

8 Ernie Clement 39 D +950 COOL 150 0.111 84.0 4.2% 6.0%vs RHP 376 6.8% 0.0% 8.7% 35

vs José Soriano · RHP 0.83 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 5 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Zack Gelof 60 C+ +500 WARM 15 0.211 89.2 8.5% 25.0%vs RHP 397 20.7% 23.1% 27.6% 35

2 Jonah Heim 50 C +750 WARM 60 0.177 88.0 7.1% 7.5%vs RHP 409 9.3% 16.7% 16.7% 31

3 Lawrence Butler 49 D +625 WARM 65 0.140 90.0 7.6% 19.6%vs RHP 408 8.8% 15.4% 17.3% 28

4 Henry Bolte 45 D +950 · 91 0.112 91.0 7.3% 4.3%vs RHP 401 10.9% 15.4% 9.6% 32

5 Jeff Mcneil 38 D +850 WARM 154 0.105 86.7 3.8% 12.7%vs RHP 380 6.5% 12.5% 10.3% 42

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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