TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIA

Suppressed air · 0.84×

NYM @ MIA

loanDepot Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph in 75°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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6:40p

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7:40p

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8:40p

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9:40p

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10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks -12

Best of game Kyle Stowers conv 26 · vs Manaea ⟷ Juan Soto conv 24 · vs Alcantara → edge: Kyle Stowers

ATTACK Sean Manaea LHP · NYM

leak 95

1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Stowers +400 C ●●●●○

2 Heriberto Hernández +350 C ●●○○○

3 Javier Sanoja +950 D ●●○○○

FADE Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 52

0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · stingy — thin edge

1 Juan Soto +320 C ●●●●○

2 Francisco Lindor +475 D ●●●●○

3 Bo Bichette +850 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Stowers: 12.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIA Kyle Stowers ✶ HOT vs Manaea +400 0.228 · 92.5 · 11.6% 30.0% 22.2% F B O C 55

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Alcantara Edge +320 0.252 · 92.3 · 8.6% 25.0% 23.9% F B O C 52

· MIA Heriberto Hernández COOL vs Manaea Edge +350 0.241 · 91.2 · 12.1% 0.0% 26.7% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Alcantara Edge +475 0.194 · 91.1 · 6.9% 30.8% 17.2% F B O D 44

· NYM Bo Bichette vs Alcantara +850 0.137 · 89.5 · 6.0% 16.7% 8.0% F B O D 34

· MIA Javier Sanoja vs Manaea Edge +950 0.146 · 86.8 · 4.8% 15.4% 7.7% F B O D 33

· NYM Francisco Alvarez vs Alcantara +575 0.176 · 90.2 · 9.2% 0.0% 17.1% F B O D 37

· MIA Jakob Marsee HOT vs Manaea +850 0.118 · 87.4 · 6.2% 10.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Manaea Edge +750 0.137 · 89.1 · 8.0% 7.7% 6.7% F B O D 36

· MIA Owen Caissie COOL vs Manaea — 0.186 · 91.0 · 11.9% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 46

· NYM Jared Young COOL vs Alcantara Edge +700 0.165 · 89.8 · 6.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 33

· NYM Brett Baty HOT vs Alcantara Edge +625 0.128 · 90.1 · 7.2% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 32

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Alcantara Edge +750 0.140 · 88.8 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.9% F B O D 32

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Alcantara +950 0.126 · 86.5 · 5.6% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Alcantara Edge +750 0.117 · 89.3 · 6.1% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 59.7% ← leak OFF 20.4% BRK 20.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.1% 4.2% 12.7% 14.0% C 52 +320

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Francisco Lindor S Edge

11.5% 5.4% 6.0% 9.1% D 44 +475

159

Francisco Alvarez R

15.7% 15.4% 16.7% 16.0% D 37 +575

177

Bo Bichette R

6.0% 0.0% 10.1% 6.6% D 34 +850

182

Jared Young L Edge

5.9% 11.4% 6.0% 6.8% D 33 +700

191

Brett Baty L Edge

8.2% 5.5% 16.1% 9.5% D 32 +625

194

Carson Benge L Edge

6.2% 7.2% 7.9% 6.8% D 32 +750

199

Marcus Semien R

8.3% 5.9% 1.8% 5.9% D 30 +950

209

A.J. Ewing L Edge

7.0% 2.1% 11.3% 7.1% D 27 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.7% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 65.5% ← leak BRK 30.4% OFF 4.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Kyle Stowers L

10.4% 22.2% 7.1% 12.9% C 55 +400

Heriberto Hernández R Edge

13.8% 13.9% 13.6% 13.8% C 50 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Owen Caissie L

14.9% 8.5% 16.7% 13.5% D 46 —

166

Otto Lopez R Edge

8.5% 3.5% 4.1% 6.1% D 36 +750

185

Javier Sanoja R Edge

2.5% 2.8% 0.0% 2.3% D 33 +950

195

Jakob Marsee L

3.7% 1.6% 6.8% 3.7% D 32 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.5% usage) carries Manaea's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Stowers Hernández

Legend

attack side — vs Manaea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Stowers +400 · 55

Juan Soto +320 · 52

Stadium conditions

loanDepot Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.84× Wind 9 mph in 75°F retractable

-13

↑

9 mph · in

75°F

6:40p

-13

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8 mph · in

73°F

7:40p

-13

↑

8 mph · in

74°F

8:40p

-12

↑

8 mph · in

75°F

9:40p · peak

-12

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8 mph · in

76°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.84× 75°F, wind 9 mph SE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.89 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.37 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 52 C +320 COOL 46 0.252 92.3 8.6% 31.7%vs RHP 400 20.0% 25.0% 23.9% 25

2 Francisco Lindor 44 D +475 · 95 0.194 91.1 6.9% 19.0%vs RHP 395 14.7% 30.8% 17.2% 37

3 Francisco Alvarez 37 D +575 WARM 159 0.176 90.2 9.2% 28.6%vs RHP 402 0.0% 0.0% 17.1% 14

4 Bo Bichette 34 D +850 WARM 177 0.137 89.5 6.0% 11.0%vs RHP 388 10.8% 16.7% 8.0% 32

5 Jared Young 33 D +700 COOL 182 0.165 89.8 6.0% 18.2%vs RHP 400 6.3% 0.0% 8.6% 30

6 Brett Baty 32 D +625 HOT 191 0.128 90.1 7.2% 12.5%vs RHP 393 6.5% 0.0% 8.0% 16

7 Carson Benge 32 D +750 COOL 194 0.140 88.8 6.1% 14.1%vs RHP 396 10.2% 0.0% 6.9% 34

8 Marcus Semien 30 D +950 COOL 199 0.126 86.5 5.6% 14.9%vs RHP 391 10.2% 0.0% 6.4% 34

9 A.J. Ewing 27 D +750 COOL 209 0.117 89.3 6.1% 12.5%vs RHP 401 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 31

vs Sean Manaea · LHP 1.49 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.47 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers ✶ 55 C +400 HOT 33 0.228 92.5 11.6% 14.3%vs LHP 400 15.0% 30.0% 22.2% 20

2 Heriberto Hernández 50 C +350 COOL 56 0.241 91.2 12.1% 35.7%vs LHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 26.7% 33

3 Owen Caissie 46 D — COOL 85 0.186 91.0 11.9% 21.0% 398 13.1% 0.0% 11.7% 12

4 Otto Lopez 36 D +750 · 166 0.137 89.1 8.0% 9.7%vs LHP 402 6.4% 7.7% 6.7% 40

5 Javier Sanoja 33 D +950 · 185 0.146 86.8 4.8% 15.0%vs LHP 381 8.0% 15.4% 7.7% 44

6 Jakob Marsee 32 D +850 HOT 195 0.118 87.4 6.2% 8.3%vs LHP 382 7.9% 10.0% 6.9% 27

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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