TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium is live · 1.26×

CIN @ LAD

Dodger Stadium · 10:10p · 14 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 88°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

7:10p

+5 ↑

8:10p

+6 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+3 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 7:10p at +6

Best of game Max Muncy conv 17 · vs Lodolo ⟷ Sal Stewart conv 30 · vs Skubal → edge: Max Muncy

ATTACK Nick Lodolo LHP · CIN

leak 90

1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · leakiest side of this game

1 Max Muncy — C+ ●●●○○

2 Tommy Edman +475 D ●●○○○

3 Mookie Betts +390 C ●●○○○

FADE Tarik Skubal LHP · DET

leak 33

0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sal Stewart +425 C ●●●●●

2 Tyler Stephenson +700 D ●●●●○

3 Elly De La Cruz +425 C ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Max Muncy: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 14.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Sal Stewart vs Skubal Edge +425 0.215 · 90.1 · 9.7% 33.3% 25.7% F B O C 57

· — Elly De La Cruz HOT vs Skubal Edge +425 0.212 · 94.4 · 10.3% 25.0% 20.6% F B O C 56

· LAD Max Muncy ✶ COOL vs Lodolo — 0.238 · 90.4 · 11.1% 14.3% 18.8% F B O C+ 65

· LAD Mookie Betts vs Lodolo Edge +390 0.177 · 90.1 · 8.3% 15.4% 11.8% F B O C 53

· LAD Shohei Ohtani COOL vs Lodolo +245 0.246 · 93.2 · 12.1% 0.0% 20.8% F B O C+ 66

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Lodolo +625 0.158 · 89.6 · 8.8% 7.7% 11.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 8 long shots

· — Tyler Stephenson vs Skubal Edge +700 0.176 · 91.1 · 9.4% 30.0% 16.6% F B O D 49

· LAD Tommy Edman vs Lodolo Edge +475 0.143 · 88.1 · 7.2% 15.4% 12.6% F B O D 48

· — Eugenio Suarez COOL vs Skubal Edge +500 0.209 · 88.3 · 9.0% 0.0% 25.0% F B O D 46

· — Dane Myers COOL vs Skubal Edge +700 0.114 · 89.3 · 5.6% 12.5% 8.0% F B O D 36

· — Jj Bleday COOL vs Skubal +525 0.209 · 88.5 · 8.6% 0.0% 18.7% F B O D 49

· LAD Kyle Tucker COOL vs Lodolo +625 0.130 · 88.8 · 7.2% 8.3% 8.1% F B O D 45

· — Matt Mclain COOL vs Skubal Edge +850 0.160 · 88.4 · 8.3% 0.0% 15.4% F B O D 43

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez HOT vs Lodolo Edge +320 0.146 · 90.2 · 9.9% 0.0% 11.0% F B O D 47

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.6% ← leak BRK 24.1% OFF 23.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Shohei Ohtani L

18.9% 11.0% 14.3% 15.7% C+ 66 +245

Max Muncy L

14.4% 8.5% 4.8% 11.4% C+ 65 —

Mookie Betts R Edge

7.6% 5.1% 7.0% 7.0% C 53 +390

Freddie Freeman L

8.7% 7.6% 7.5% 8.2% C 50 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Tommy Edman S Edge

4.7% 6.7% 7.1% 5.6% D 48 +475

Teoscar Hernandez R Edge

10.1% 12.3% 10.3% 10.6% D 47 +320

Kyle Tucker L

8.0% 2.6% 1.2% 5.5% D 45 +625

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.6% usage) carries Lodolo's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.9% ← leak OFF 26.3% BRK 18.8% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Sal Stewart R Edge

15.4% 8.3% 10.8% 12.9% C 57 +425

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

18.3% 7.7% 11.7% 14.4% C 56 +425

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Jj Bleday L

12.4% 6.2% 6.1% 9.8% D 49 +525

Tyler Stephenson R Edge

16.1% 4.0% 6.9% 12.3% D 49 +700

Eugenio Suarez R Edge

13.5% 4.8% 5.9% 11.1% D 46 +500

105

Matt Mclain R Edge

10.7% 3.7% 9.7% 9.6% D 43 +850

167

Dane Myers R Edge

3.9% 4.8% 5.0% 4.3% D 36 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.9% usage) carries Skubal's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Muncy Betts Edman Stewart Cruz Stephenson

Legend

attack side — vs Lodolo fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Sal Stewart +425 · 57

Elly De La Cruz +425 · 56

Stadium conditions

Dodger Stadium

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 5 mph slight_out 88°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

88°F

7:10p · peak

↑

4 mph · slight_out

86°F

8:10p

↑

3 mph · out

85°F

9:10p

↑

2 mph · out

84°F

10:10p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

84°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.26× 88°F, wind 5 mph W (slight_out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Nick Lodolo · LHP 1.71 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.97 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 66 C+ +245 COOL 4 0.246 93.2 12.1% 30.8%vs LHP 407 18.1% 0.0% 20.8% 20

2 Max Muncy ✶ 65 C+ — COOL 5 0.238 90.4 11.1% 23.5%vs LHP 411 21.4% 14.3% 18.8% 46

3 Mookie Betts 53 C +390 · 45 0.177 90.1 8.3% 10.0%vs LHP 389 11.9% 15.4% 11.8% 44

4 Freddie Freeman 50 C +625 COOL 62 0.158 89.6 8.8% 14.7%vs LHP 399 10.0% 7.7% 11.2% 29

5 Tommy Edman 48 D +475 · 68 0.143 88.1 7.2% 30.0%vs LHP 396 9.3% 15.4% 12.6% 39

6 Teoscar Hernandez 47 D +320 HOT 75 0.146 90.2 9.9% 18.5%vs LHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 11.0% 30

7 Kyle Tucker 45 D +625 COOL 92 0.130 88.8 7.2% 6.1%vs LHP 391 7.5% 8.3% 8.1% 34

vs Tarik Skubal · LHP 0.82 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Sal Stewart 57 C +425 WARM 22 0.215 90.1 9.7% 27.6%vs LHP 397 17.8% 33.3% 25.7% 40

2 Elly De La Cruz 56 C +425 HOT 28 0.212 94.4 10.3% 36.4%vs LHP 400 16.9% 25.0% 20.6% 32

3 Jj Bleday 49 D +525 COOL 64 0.209 88.5 8.6% 21.7%vs LHP 389 18.2% 0.0% 18.7% 33

4 Tyler Stephenson 49 D +700 · 66 0.176 91.1 9.4% 9.1%vs LHP 392 10.5% 30.0% 16.6% 23

5 Eugenio Suarez 46 D +500 COOL 84 0.209 88.3 9.0% 27.8%vs LHP 396 0.0% 0.0% 25.0% 20

6 Matt Mclain 43 D +850 COOL 105 0.160 88.4 8.3% 25.0%vs LHP 391 12.5% 0.0% 15.4% 29

7 Dane Myers 36 D +700 COOL 167 0.114 89.3 5.6% 14.8%vs LHP 384 6.3% 12.5% 8.0% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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