TheHomeRuns.org — COL @ NYY

Playable air · 1.06×

COL @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 7:05p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

+9 ↑

7:05p

+9 ↑

8:05p

+9 ↑

9:05p

+9 ↑

10:05p

+9 ↑

11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · +9 FIT

Best of game Hunter Goodman conv 24 · vs Schlittler ⟷ Luis García Jr. conv 32 · vs Hughes → edge: Hunter Goodman

ATTACK Cam Schlittler RHP · NYY

leak 86

0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · leakiest side of this game

1 Hunter Goodman — C+ ●●●●○

2 Cole Carrigg — D ●●●○○

3 Mickey Moniak — C ●●○○○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · COL

leak 21

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · stingy — thin edge

1 Luis García Jr. — C ●●●●●

2 Ben Rice — C+ ●●●○○

3 Aaron Judge — C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Hunter Goodman: Match 28.5% · 14D pace 20.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Luis García Jr. vs Hughes Edge — 0.258 · 91.7 · 8.1% 40.0% 23.3% F B O C 59

· COL Hunter Goodman ✶ COOL vs Schlittler — 0.279 · 90.3 · 11.1% 20.0% 28.5% F B O C+ 64

· NYY Ben Rice COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.264 · 92.0 · 8.8% 16.7% 19.3% F B O C+ 62

· COL Mickey Moniak vs Schlittler Edge — 0.250 · 89.5 · 8.8% 11.1% 16.3% F B O C 54

· NYY Aaron Judge vs Hughes — 0.285 · 94.1 · 10.9% 0.0% 22.7% F B O C+ 63

· NYY Spencer Jones COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.200 · 94.1 · 9.3% 0.0% 21.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Cole Carrigg HOT vs Schlittler Edge — 0.186 · 87.1 · 6.6% 22.2% 12.8% F B O D 44

· COL Adael Amador COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.276 · 82.7 · 8.1% 0.0% 20.6% F B O D 44

· COL Zac Veen COOL vs Schlittler Edge — 0.263 · 88.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 16.9% F B O D 45

· NYY Cody Bellinger vs Hughes Edge — 0.148 · 88.9 · 5.6% 7.7% 8.7% F B O D 41

· NYY Austin Wells vs Hughes Edge — 0.124 · 89.3 · 6.0% 0.0% 13.5% F B O D 40

· COL Kyle Karros vs Schlittler — 0.156 · 89.4 · 7.9% 0.0% 12.7% F B O D 42

· COL Jake Mccarthy vs Schlittler Edge — 0.191 · 85.5 · 6.5% 0.0% 11.7% F B O D 39

· NYY Jazz Chisholm Jr. COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.172 · 90.7 · 6.8% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 46

· COL Tj Rumfield HOT vs Schlittler Edge — 0.161 · 84.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.7% F B O D 36

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.145 · 91.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.3% F B O D 40

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Schlittler — 0.121 · 87.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 37

· NYY George Lombard Jr. vs Hughes — 0.112 · 85.6 · 5.9% 0.0% 8.5% F B O D 39

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for Cam Schlittler — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for Gabriel Hughes — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Moniak Carrigg Rice Jr.

Legend

attack side — vs Schlittler fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Luis García Jr. — · 59

Hunter Goodman — · 64

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 7:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 4 mph in 76°F open

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

7:05p · peak

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

8:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

9:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

10:05p

↑

12 mph · slight_out

84°F

11:05p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 76°F, wind 4 mph NNE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cam Schlittler · RHP 0.78 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.16 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman ✶ 64 C+ — COOL 7 0.279 90.3 11.1% 38.0%vs RHP 412 23.3% 20.0% 28.5% 31

2 Mickey Moniak 54 C — · 39 0.250 89.5 8.8% 22.2%vs RHP 416 17.3% 11.1% 16.3% 29

3 Zac Veen 45 D — COOL 93 0.263 88.7 10.1% 25.0%vs RHP 407 0.0% 0.0% 16.9% 11

4 Adael Amador 44 D — COOL 100 0.276 82.7 8.1% 40.0%vs RHP 385 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 19

5 Cole Carrigg 44 D — HOT 103 0.186 87.1 6.6% 13.3%vs RHP 402 7.9% 22.2% 12.8% 35

6 Kyle Karros 42 D — · 127 0.156 89.4 7.9% 20.0%vs RHP 416 10.5% 0.0% 12.7% 0

7 Jake Mccarthy 39 D — WARM 156 0.191 85.5 6.5% 15.4%vs RHP 415 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 46

8 Ezequiel Tovar 37 D — WARM 177 0.121 87.5 7.1% 13.3%vs RHP 409 7.4% 0.0% 8.9% 17

9 Tj Rumfield 36 D — HOT 183 0.161 84.3 6.3% 13.1%vs RHP 412 0.0% 0.0% 10.7% 36

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Aaron Judge 63 C+ — · 11 0.285 94.1 10.9% 34.3%vs RHP 404 23.1% 0.0% 22.7% 0

2 Ben Rice 62 C+ — COOL 15 0.264 92.0 8.8% 31.3%vs RHP 395 23.7% 16.7% 19.3% 38

3 Luis García Jr. 59 C — · 19 0.258 91.7 8.1% 36.8%vs RHP 397 12.7% 40.0% 23.3% 33

4 Spencer Jones 52 C — COOL 50 0.200 94.1 9.3% 20.0%vs RHP 395 12.5% 0.0% 21.2% 25

5 Jazz Chisholm Jr. 46 D — COOL 88 0.172 90.7 6.8% 22.6%vs RHP 384 12.5% 0.0% 11.6% 26

6 Cody Bellinger 41 D — · 136 0.148 88.9 5.6% 11.6%vs RHP 378 8.9% 7.7% 8.7% 48

7 Ryan Mcmahon 40 D — COOL 141 0.145 91.0 7.1% 18.5%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 9

8 Austin Wells 40 D — WARM 142 0.124 89.3 6.0% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.8% 0.0% 13.5% 22

9 George Lombard Jr. 39 D — WARM 167 0.112 85.6 5.9% 18.2%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 8.5% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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