TheHomeRuns.org — CLE @ BAL

Neutral air · 0.99×

CLE @ BAL

Camden Yards · 6:35p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.99× Wind 5 mph slight_out 77°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:35p

+2 ↑

7:35p

+2 ↑

8:35p

+3 ↑

9:35p

+4 ↑

10:35p

conditions build late — the 10:35p window peaks +4

Best of game Brayan Rocchio conv 19 · vs Young ⟷ Pete Alonso conv 24 · vs Bibee → edge: Pete Alonso

ATTACK Brandon Young RHP · BAL

leak 76

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●●○○

2 Travis Bazzana +700 D ●●○○○

3 Patrick Bailey +700 D ●●○○○

FADE Tanner Bibee RHP · CLE

leak 30

1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · stingy — thin edge

1 Pete Alonso +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Coby Mayo +370 C ●●●○○

3 Gunnar Henderson +390 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Pete Alonso: 14.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 21.4%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BAL Pete Alonso ✶ vs Bibee +280 0.227 · 94.3 · 10.5% 21.4% 26.2% F B O C+ 62

· BAL Coby Mayo COOL vs Bibee +370 0.222 · 91.4 · 9.8% 25.0% 17.6% F B O C 57

· BAL Samuel Basallo COOL vs Bibee Edge +350 0.192 · 90.5 · 10.0% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio vs Young Edge +750 0.131 · 86.9 · 4.7% 25.0% 13.1% F B O D 39

· CLE Travis Bazzana COOL vs Young Edge +700 0.136 · 87.7 · 5.7% 20.0% 8.5% F B O D 40

· CLE Patrick Bailey COOL vs Young Edge +700 0.122 · 90.4 · 6.9% 14.3% 13.0% F B O D 40

· CLE Angel Martinez vs Young Edge +575 0.185 · 87.5 · 7.0% 0.0% 21.4% F B O D 42

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Bibee Edge +390 0.178 · 89.4 · 7.4% 7.1% 14.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Bibee Edge +500 0.151 · 88.0 · 9.0% 10.0% 11.1% F B O D 47

· BAL Jackson Holliday vs Bibee Edge +625 0.119 · 87.0 · 7.5% 9.1% 9.0% F B O D 39

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Bibee Edge +700 0.130 · 88.3 · 5.8% 9.1% 8.7% F B O D 38

· CLE Chase Delauter vs Young Edge +425 0.164 · 91.3 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 41

· CLE Jose Ramirez COOL vs Young Edge +425 0.141 · 89.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 35

· CLE Steven Kwan vs Young Edge — 0.061 · 83.8 · 1.8% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 23

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.9% ← leak BRK 27.4% OFF 18.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

115

Angel Martinez S Edge

6.8% 13.5% 3.9% 7.3% D 42 +575

124

Chase Delauter L Edge

7.7% 6.2% 1.5% 6.2% D 41 +425

133

Patrick Bailey S Edge

9.1% 4.0% 4.2% 6.6% D 40 +700

140

Travis Bazzana L Edge

5.2% 3.0% 2.4% 4.4% D 40 +700

147

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

3.9% 3.9% 1.0% 3.2% D 39 +750

171

Jose Ramirez S Edge

— — — — D 35 +425

213

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.4% 1.1% 0.0% 0.5% D 23 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.9% usage) carries Young's damage — FB is the leak. 7 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 69.0% ← leak BRK 16.0% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R

15.3% 10.1% 16.7% 14.0% C+ 62 +280

Coby Mayo R

10.3% 14.5% 15.2% 12.4% C 57 +370

Samuel Basallo L Edge

15.0% 10.0% 11.5% 12.8% C 51 +350

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Gunnar Henderson L Edge

6.9% 7.2% 7.0% 7.0% D 47 +390

Colton Cowser L Edge

12.1% 14.0% 3.8% 10.4% D 47 +500

149

Jackson Holliday L Edge

7.9% 5.8% 6.7% 7.1% D 39 +625

156

Leody Taveras S Edge

4.2% 8.2% 0.0% 4.2% D 38 +700

Read the columns: the fastball family (69.0% usage) carries Bibee's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Bailey Bazzana Rocchio Alonso Mayo

Legend

attack side — vs Young fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Pete Alonso +280 · 62

Stadium conditions

Camden Yards

First pitch 6:35p · roof open

Park 0.99× Wind 5 mph slight_out 77°F open

↑

5 mph · slight_out

78°F

6:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

74°F

7:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

72°F

8:35p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

70°F

9:35p

↑

6 mph · slight_out

67°F

10:35p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 0.99× 77°F, wind 5 mph SE (slight_out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast) — mild park boost, weather flat.

vs Brandon Young · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.20 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Angel Martinez 42 D +575 · 115 0.185 87.5 7.0% 22.7%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 21.4% 21

2 Chase Delauter 41 D +425 · 124 0.164 91.3 6.4% 19.3%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 24

3 Patrick Bailey 40 D +700 COOL 133 0.122 90.4 6.9% 16.7%vs RHP 409 7.1% 14.3% 13.0% 13

4 Travis Bazzana 40 D +700 COOL 140 0.136 87.7 5.7% 15.2%vs RHP 396 10.4% 20.0% 8.5% 26

5 Brayan Rocchio 39 D +750 · 147 0.131 86.9 4.7% 11.4%vs RHP 384 8.9% 25.0% 13.1% 31

6 Jose Ramirez 35 D +425 COOL 171 0.141 89.1 5.4% 8.8%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 38

7 Steven Kwan 23 D — WARM 213 0.061 83.8 1.8% 2.9%vs RHP 372 1.5% 0.0% 6.7% 42

vs Tanner Bibee · RHP 1.43 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.29 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso ✶ 62 C+ +280 WARM 13 0.227 94.3 10.5% 31.2%vs RHP 402 20.8% 21.4% 26.2% 32

2 Coby Mayo 57 C +370 COOL 25 0.222 91.4 9.8% 9.8%vs RHP 411 17.3% 25.0% 17.6% 27

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C +350 COOL 54 0.192 90.5 10.0% 26.8%vs RHP 399 14.0% 0.0% 15.1% 23

4 Gunnar Henderson 47 D +390 COOL 78 0.178 89.4 7.4% 17.1%vs RHP 393 14.1% 7.1% 14.1% 36

5 Colton Cowser 47 D +500 WARM 80 0.151 88.0 9.0% 20.7%vs RHP 412 15.6% 10.0% 11.1% 23

6 Jackson Holliday 39 D +625 · 149 0.119 87.0 7.5% 15.4%vs RHP 389 4.7% 9.1% 9.0% 34

7 Leody Taveras 38 D +700 WARM 156 0.130 88.3 5.8% 12.7%vs RHP 403 4.9% 9.1% 8.7% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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