TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.17×

TB @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 18 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph cross 78°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

7:15p

+2 ↑

8:15p

+0 ↑

9:15p

-1 ↑

10:15p

-2 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +2

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 30 · vs Smith-Shawver ⟷ Matt Olson conv 14 · vs Peralta → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK AJ Smith-Shawver RHP · ATL

leak 86

1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +305 C+ ●●●●●

2 Richie Palacios +950 D ●●●●○

3 Jonathan Aranda +500 C ●●●○○

FADE Freddy Peralta RHP · NYM

leak 83

1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +350 C+ ●●○○○

2 Michael Harris — C ●●○○○

3 Ronald Acuna — D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: Match 35.6% · 14D pace 25.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Smith-Shawver +305 0.248 · 93.0 · 9.7% 25.0% 35.6% F B O C+ 66

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Smith-Shawver Edge +500 0.152 · 91.2 · 8.5% 27.3% 15.8% F B O C 51

· — Matt Olson COOL vs Peralta Edge +350 0.259 · 92.6 · 9.6% 7.7% 19.9% F B O C+ 63

· — Michael Harris COOL vs Peralta Edge — 0.202 · 90.5 · 8.1% 0.0% 26.6% F B O C 50

· — Drake Baldwin vs Peralta Edge +425 0.173 · 91.7 · 8.8% 7.7% 13.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· TB Richie Palacios vs Smith-Shawver Edge +950 0.132 · 86.2 · 5.4% 37.5% 13.7% F B O D 43

· — Ronald Acuna vs Peralta — 0.190 · 90.5 · 8.9% 0.0% 23.9% F B O D 49

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Smith-Shawver Edge +500 0.143 · 87.9 · 5.6% 11.1% 8.7% F B O D 43

· — Ozzie Albies vs Peralta Edge +625 0.162 · 87.1 · 5.0% 7.7% 10.8% F B O D 44

· — Austin Riley vs Peralta +500 0.144 · 91.5 · 8.8% 8.3% 9.9% F B O D 47

· TB Yandy Diaz HOT vs Smith-Shawver +500 0.162 · 91.1 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.8% F B O D 43

· TB Jonny Deluca COOL vs Smith-Shawver — 0.159 · 85.5 · 5.0% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 41

· — Dominic Smith vs Peralta Edge — 0.123 · 87.8 · 5.8% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 40

· — Mike Yastrzemski COOL vs Peralta Edge +850 0.147 · 90.6 · 6.4% 0.0% 10.1% F B O D 43

· TB Nick Fortes COOL vs Smith-Shawver — 0.099 · 85.1 · 3.9% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 34

· — Mauricio Dubon COOL vs Peralta +950 0.123 · 86.4 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 35

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge — 0.074 · 85.6 · 3.7% 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 30

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Smith-Shawver Edge — 0.050 · 83.6 · — 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 21

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 48.9% OFF 35.9% BRK 15.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Junior Caminero R

15.0% 6.9% 11.6% 12.8% C+ 66 +305

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

10.1% 5.6% 13.6% 10.0% C 51 +500

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

104

Yandy Diaz R

5.9% 3.5% 11.3% 7.3% D 43 +500

109

Richie Palacios L Edge

5.6% 2.8% 1.5% 4.1% D 43 +950

112

Cedric Mullins L Edge

4.3% 7.7% 2.7% 4.3% D 43 +500

122

Jonny Deluca R

4.2% 0.0% 3.3% 3.4% D 41 —

175

Nick Fortes R

2.7% 0.0% 1.7% 2.1% D 34 —

200

Taylor Walls S Edge

2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 30 —

215

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Smith-Shawver's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 52.4% ← leak BRK 23.5% OFF 23.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Matt Olson L Edge

16.5% 12.0% 12.2% 14.6% C+ 63 +350

Drake Baldwin L Edge

11.9% 18.1% 5.6% 12.6% C 52 +425

Michael Harris L Edge

7.1% 13.3% 13.0% 10.2% C 50 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Ronald Acuna R

12.9% 12.5% 11.8% 12.6% D 49 —

Austin Riley R

12.8% 13.4% 7.5% 12.3% D 47 +500

Ozzie Albies S Edge

6.3% 1.6% 2.4% 4.0% D 44 +625

110

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.0% 6.8% 5.3% 6.6% D 43 +850

134

Dominic Smith L Edge

5.6% 7.1% 2.5% 5.4% D 40 —

170

Mauricio Dubon R

2.8% 5.8% 4.1% 3.8% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (52.4% usage) carries Peralta's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Aranda Palacios Olson Harris

Legend

attack side — vs Smith-Shawver fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Junior Caminero +305 · 66

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 2 mph cross 78°F open

↑

2 mph · cross

78°F

7:15p · peak

↑

2 mph · cross

77°F

8:15p

↑

3 mph · in

77°F

9:15p

-1

↑

4 mph · in

77°F

10:15p

-2

↑

5 mph · in

77°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 78°F, wind 2 mph SSW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs AJ Smith-Shawver · RHP 1.02 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.38 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 66 C+ +305 · 2 0.248 93.0 9.7% 41.1%vs RHP 414 25.0% 25.0% 35.6% 38

2 Jonathan Aranda 51 C +500 WARM 53 0.152 91.2 8.5% 16.8%vs RHP 392 12.8% 27.3% 15.8% 32

3 Yandy Diaz 43 D +500 HOT 104 0.162 91.1 7.3% 25.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 12.8% 42

4 Richie Palacios 43 D +950 WARM 109 0.132 86.2 5.4% 16.7%vs RHP 389 7.4% 37.5% 13.7% 24

5 Cedric Mullins 43 D +500 WARM 112 0.143 87.9 5.6% 16.1%vs RHP 387 11.6% 11.1% 8.7% 26

6 Jonny Deluca 41 D — COOL 122 0.159 85.5 5.0% 24.1%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 12.4% 28

7 Nick Fortes 34 D — COOL 175 0.099 85.1 3.9% 15.8%vs RHP 396 4.1% 0.0% 9.2% 9

8 Taylor Walls 30 D — COOL 200 0.074 85.6 3.7% 2.2%vs RHP 383 0.9% 0.0% 6.4% 24

9 Chandler Simpson 21 D — COOL 215 0.050 83.6 — 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 46

vs Freddy Peralta · RHP 1.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 63 C+ +350 COOL 9 0.259 92.6 9.6% 29.5%vs RHP 408 22.8% 7.7% 19.9% 33

2 Drake Baldwin 52 C +425 · 50 0.173 91.7 8.8% 22.7%vs RHP 402 15.3% 7.7% 13.1% 36

3 Michael Harris 50 C — COOL 57 0.202 90.5 8.1% 25.4%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 26.6% 33

4 Ronald Acuna 49 D — WARM 63 0.190 90.5 8.9% 25.0%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 23.9% 35

5 Austin Riley 47 D +500 · 82 0.144 91.5 8.8% 17.7%vs RHP 409 9.2% 8.3% 9.9% 27

6 Ozzie Albies 44 D +625 · 99 0.162 87.1 5.0% 13.0%vs RHP 387 13.2% 7.7% 10.8% 39

7 Mike Yastrzemski 43 D +850 COOL 110 0.147 90.6 6.4% 14.5%vs RHP 389 7.7% 0.0% 10.1% 17

8 Dominic Smith 40 D — WARM 134 0.123 87.8 5.8% 14.0%vs RHP 392 7.9% 0.0% 11.1% 3

9 Mauricio Dubon 35 D +950 COOL 170 0.123 86.4 4.9% 10.0%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 39

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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