TheHomeRuns.org — STL @ SF

Oracle Park is live · 1.13×

STL @ SF

Oracle Park · 9:45p · 10 ranked batters

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph out 80°F Roof open

Hourly window

+4 ↑

6:45p

+3 ↑

7:45p

+1 ↑

8:45p

-1 ↑

9:45p

-2 ↑

10:45p

best window is early — 6:45p at +4

Best of game Nolan Gorman conv 14 · vs Roupp ⟷ Rafael Devers conv 34 · vs Mathews → edge: Rafael Devers

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 72

0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · leakiest side of this game

1 Nolan Gorman +500 D ●●○○○

2 Jordan Walker +575 D ●●○○○

3 Alec Burleson +575 D ●○○○○

FADE Quinn Mathews LHP · STL

leak 4

0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.99 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rafael Devers +500 C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge +575 D ●○○○○

3 Drew Gilbert — D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Rafael Devers: Match 18.5% · 14D pace 50.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Rafael Devers ✶ HOT vs Mathews +500 0.259 · 93.1 · 6.8% 50.0% 18.5% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· STL Nolan Gorman vs Roupp Edge +500 0.139 · 89.5 · 7.4% 16.7% 11.3% F B O D 37

· STL Jordan Walker vs Roupp +575 0.211 · 92.3 · 8.3% 7.7% 13.0% F B O D 46

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Mathews +575 0.185 · 92.3 · 6.6% 9.1% 9.2% F B O D 40

· STL Alec Burleson COOL vs Roupp Edge +575 0.181 · 91.9 · 7.6% 7.7% 9.6% F B O D 41

· SF Drew Gilbert vs Mathews — 0.139 · 86.7 · 4.4% 8.3% 5.8% F B O D 29

· STL Nathan Church COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.120 · 86.0 · 5.5% 7.7% 6.3% F B O D 30

· STL Ivan Herrera vs Roupp +850 0.138 · 89.3 · 5.4% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 28

· STL José Fermín COOL vs Roupp — 0.113 · 86.1 · 3.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 25

· SF Jung Hoo Lee vs Mathews — 0.127 · 87.4 · 3.1% 0.0% 5.2% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.7% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 20.6% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Jordan Walker R

14.2% 10.7% 17.5% 13.2% D 46 +575

128

Alec Burleson L Edge

11.6% 10.0% 10.8% 10.9% D 41 +575

163

Nolan Gorman L Edge

14.8% 3.0% 7.7% 10.5% D 37 +500

202

Nathan Church L Edge

6.5% 6.5% 3.9% 5.8% D 30 —

207

Ivan Herrera R

5.6% 4.7% 8.3% 5.6% D 28 +850

211

José Fermín R

3.1% 1.6% 0.0% 2.3% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.7% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.9% BRK 36.6% OFF 16.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Rafael Devers L

14.5% 11.7% 7.0% 12.4% C 54 +500

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

142

Bryce Eldridge L

11.1% 11.1% 13.2% 11.4% D 40 +575

205

Drew Gilbert L

5.9% 7.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 29 —

212

Jung Hoo Lee L

2.7% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Mathews's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 0 of 4 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Gorman Devers

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Rafael Devers +500 · 54

Stadium conditions

Oracle Park

First pitch 6:45p · roof open

Park 0.87× Wind 7 mph out 80°F open

↑

7 mph · out

80°F

6:45p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

76°F

7:45p

↑

5 mph · out

73°F

8:45p

-1

↑

3 mph · out

72°F

9:45p

-2

↑

2 mph · out

70°F

10:45p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.13× 80°F, wind 7 mph W (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.69 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.26 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jordan Walker 46 D +575 · 88 0.211 92.3 8.3% 26.0%vs RHP 406 17.4% 7.7% 13.0% 31

2 Alec Burleson 41 D +575 COOL 128 0.181 91.9 7.6% 21.4%vs RHP 405 14.5% 7.7% 9.6% 40

3 Nolan Gorman 37 D +500 WARM 163 0.139 89.5 7.4% 14.3%vs RHP 407 10.0% 16.7% 11.3% 23

4 Nathan Church 30 D — COOL 202 0.120 86.0 5.5% 13.8%vs RHP 386 7.8% 7.7% 6.3% 39

5 Ivan Herrera 28 D +850 · 207 0.138 89.3 5.4% 19.6%vs RHP 406 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% 40

6 José Fermín 25 D — COOL 211 0.113 86.1 3.5% 6.2%vs RHP 390 5.7% 0.0% 6.2% 36

vs Quinn Mathews · LHP 0.36 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.99 · 4 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers ✶ 54 C +500 HOT 39 0.259 93.1 6.8% 15.6%vs LHP 398 22.1% 50.0% 18.5% 36

2 Bryce Eldridge 40 D +575 · 142 0.185 92.3 6.6% 23.8%vs LHP 399 17.3% 9.1% 9.2% 29

3 Drew Gilbert 29 D — WARM 205 0.139 86.7 4.4% 10.1% 394 6.6% 8.3% 5.8% 25

4 Jung Hoo Lee 25 D — WARM 212 0.127 87.4 3.1% 8.0%vs LHP 382 5.4% 0.0% 5.2% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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