Quinn Mathews

LHP

0 matchups scored · 0 game days · 8 listed today

HRs allowed

HR rate (pool)

0.0%

Overall HR/FB

3.75

FIP

6.25

xFIP

#22

Leakiest SP today (of 22, by FIP−xFIP)

Leak meter STINGY

LEAKY 3

season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone

Tonight's read

vulnerability percentile · model flags

no model flags today

Vulnerability 3th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
8 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge

Where he leaks

quality of contact allowed · season

Barrel% allowed

—

Hard-Hit% allowed

—

Fly-ball rate

—

Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.

Recent form

HR allowed by scored game day

Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.

Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.

STL @ CIN 1:40p · Great American Ball Park Park 1.08 Wind 8.0 W out Roof open · 80°F BP FIP 4.14 BP HR 12.2% 0L / 7R listed (+1S) · lineup: confirmed

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × his arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.2% BRK 23.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

23 Elly De La Cruz S Edge

17.5% 9.5% 13.0% C 57

25 Sal Stewart R Edge

16.4% 9.8% 13.3% C 56

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

52 Tyler Stephenson R Edge

15.2% 7.8% 12.1% D 49

53 Eugenio Suarez R Edge

14.0% 7.3% 11.7% D 48

80 Matt Mclain R Edge

12.4% 9.0% 10.1% D 43

89 Ke'Bryan Hayes R Edge

9.7% 7.9% 8.6% D 42

105 Noelvi Marte R Edge

1.3% 10.9% 5.1% D 40

124 Dane Myers R Edge

3.9% 4.8% 4.4% D 36

No single family leads his damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 8 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Arsenal ledger

per-pitch damage against · season

PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage

Fastball Hard 41.2% 81.5 20.3° 0 +0.8

Slider Breaking 23.7% 72.8 27.0° 0 +1.2

RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.

Full ledger

pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked

Pool matchups0

HRs allowed (pool)0

Pool HR rate0%

Pool HR/game day—

Top-15 matchups0

HRs to top-150

Overall HR/FB0.0% 3

HR/9—

FIP3.75 37

xFIP6.25

FIP − xFIP—

Barrel% allowed—

Hard-Hit% allowed—

FB%—

K/9—

BB/9—

WHIP—

IP—

Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-17

Fastball

Hard · 41.2% usage

+0.8 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against81.5 mph

Avg launch angle20.3°

HRs allowed0

Pitches40

Slider

Breaking · 23.7% usage

+1.2 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against72.8 mph

Avg launch angle27.0°

HRs allowed0

Pitches23

Usage by handedness

what tonight's lefties/righties will see

Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.

Zone map

damage by location

Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.

Pitcher vs. Batter

career PA vs tonight's listed order

BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage

Elly De La Cruz S 0———— never faced

Sal Stewart R 0———— never faced

Tyler Stephenson R 0———— never faced

Eugenio Suarez R 0———— never faced

Matt Mclain R 0———— never faced

Ke'Bryan Hayes R 0———— never faced

Noelvi Marte R 0———— never faced

Dane Myers R 0———— never faced

BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.

HR Log

0 allowed · scored pool

No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.

Game-day log

last 0 scored game days · pool

No scored game days yet for Quinn Mathews.

Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.

Tonight — Great American Ball Park

open-air · game-window conditions

Park Factor 1.083 Wind 8 mph from W Temp 80°F Roof Open

TimeWindTempFIT

1:40p 7 69° +9

2:40p 7 66° +8

3:40p 6 65° +7

4:40p 5 64° +6

5:40p 5 63° +5

Slight green alignment

park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal

Game-window avg wind 6 mph from NNW

FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.

Fences vs his leak

wall distance · damage overlay

328ft

avg

404ft

avg

325ft

avg

vs LHH → RF

349ft

0 HRs allowed

vs RHH → LF

347ft

0 HRs allowed · short porch

Shortest: RF 325 ft

Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.

Venue splits

HRs allowed by venue · pool

No scored matchups by venue yet for Quinn Mathews.

⚾

Six home runs to freedom

Quinn Mathews's full pitcher profile is waiting

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Common questions about Quinn Mathews

Is Quinn Mathews likely to give up a home run tonight?

Quinn Mathews pitches tonight (STL @ CIN at Great American Ball Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

Quinn Mathews

Quinn Mathews's full pitcher profile is waiting

Common questions about Quinn Mathews

Is Quinn Mathews likely to give up a home run tonight?

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.