TheHomeRuns.org — HOU @ PHI

Playable air · 1.10×

HOU @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.10× Wind 4 mph cross 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

6:40p

+2 ↑

7:40p

+3 ↑

8:40p

+4 ↑

9:40p

+6 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 10:40p window peaks +6

Best of game Jeremy Peña conv 24 · vs Painter ⟷ Kyle Schwarber conv 35 · vs Wesneski → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Andrew Painter RHP · PHI

leak 86

1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jeremy Peña +575 C ●●●●○

2 Yainer Diaz +750 C ●●●●○

3 Yordan Alvarez +225 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Hayden Wesneski RHP · HOU

leak 62

0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Schwarber +220 B ●●●●●

2 Bryce Harper +400 C ●●○○○

3 Bryson Stott +625 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 17.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Wesneski Edge +220 0.283 · 92.3 · 10.7% 33.3% 36.5% F B O B 70

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Painter +575 0.185 · 88.3 · 7.0% 23.1% 25.8% F B O C 55

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Painter +750 0.162 · 88.5 · 6.9% 25.0% 23.3% F B O C 51

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Wesneski Edge +400 0.229 · 90.4 · 8.6% 8.3% 19.0% F B O C 57

· HOU Yordan Alvarez COOL vs Painter Edge +225 0.285 · 94.4 · 11.1% 0.0% 23.7% F B O C+ 63

· HOU Christian Walker vs Painter +425 0.195 · 89.1 · 8.2% 8.3% 15.3% F B O C 55

· HOU Cam Smith COOL vs Painter — 0.175 · 89.1 · 9.2% 0.0% 13.2% F B O C 52

· HOU Taylor Trammell COOL vs Painter Edge +625 0.156 · 87.8 · 9.5% 0.0% 11.8% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· HOU Isaac Paredes COOL vs Painter +525 0.162 · 86.0 · 6.0% 7.7% 11.8% F B O D 47

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Wesneski Edge +625 0.146 · 89.1 · 6.2% 8.3% 9.0% F B O D 42

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Wesneski +625 0.142 · 90.5 · 6.4% 9.1% 7.1% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve vs Painter +750 0.153 · 85.5 · 5.9% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 41

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Wesneski Edge +700 0.152 · 89.2 · 7.4% 0.0% 10.6% F B O D 44

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Painter — 0.121 · 86.0 · 4.0% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 37

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Wesneski Edge — 0.083 · 87.2 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

· PHI Trea Turner vs Wesneski +525 0.138 · 88.4 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.3% F B O D 41

· PHI J.T. Realmuto vs Wesneski +700 0.132 · 89.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.7% ← leak BRK 41.1% OFF 17.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 6

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

16.5% 20.8% 8.6% 16.0% C+ 63 +225

Jeremy Peña R

6.2% 6.0% 8.7% 6.4% C 55 +575

Christian Walker R

7.7% 9.5% 12.5% 8.7% C 55 +425

Cam Smith R

8.6% 15.4% 15.6% 10.9% C 52 —

Yainer Diaz R

6.1% 6.0% 6.1% 6.1% C 51 +750

Taylor Trammell L Edge

18.9% 4.8% 3.4% 11.7% C 50 +625

Long shots · 3 — below the fade line

Isaac Paredes R

6.1% 2.8% 1.8% 4.7% D 47 +525

123

Jose Altuve R

5.5% 4.1% 0.0% 4.5% D 41 +750

160

Christian Vazquez R

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (41.7% usage) carries Painter's damage — FB is the leak. 2 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 56.4% ← leak BRK 30.5% OFF 12.6% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L Edge

16.7% 14.6% 25.7% 17.0% B 70 +220

Neutral · 1

Bryce Harper L Edge

11.8% 12.6% 6.6% 11.0% C 57 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

100

Brandon Marsh L Edge

6.5% 14.6% 3.4% 8.2% D 44 +700

113

Alec Bohm R

5.1% 7.0% 10.0% 6.1% D 43 +625

120

Bryson Stott L Edge

7.5% 3.4% 5.5% 5.9% D 42 +625

127

Trea Turner R

7.9% 4.7% 4.1% 6.4% D 41 +525

158

J.T. Realmuto R

4.4% 7.0% 4.0% 5.0% D 37 +700

198

Justin Crawford L Edge

1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.3% D 30 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.4% usage) carries Wesneski's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Peña Diaz Schwarber Harper

Legend

attack side — vs Painter fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Kyle Schwarber +220 · 70

Jeremy Peña +575 · 55

Yainer Diaz +750 · 51

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.10× Wind 4 mph cross 74°F open

↑

4 mph · cross

75°F

6:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

71°F

7:40p

↑

3 mph · cross

69°F

8:40p

↑

3 mph · slight_out

67°F

9:40p

↑

4 mph · out

65°F

10:40p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.10× 74°F, wind 4 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Andrew Painter · RHP 1.46 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.36 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez 63 C+ +225 COOL 7 0.285 94.4 11.1% 25.0%vs RHP 403 0.0% 0.0% 23.7% 34

2 Jeremy Peña 55 C +575 WARM 32 0.185 88.3 7.0% 28.3%vs RHP 387 15.7% 23.1% 25.8% 36

3 Christian Walker 55 C +425 · 34 0.195 89.1 8.2% 23.5%vs RHP 391 16.5% 8.3% 15.3% 36

4 Cam Smith 52 C — COOL 49 0.175 89.1 9.2% 19.6%vs RHP 408 12.1% 0.0% 13.2% 22

5 Yainer Diaz 51 C +750 WARM 52 0.162 88.5 6.9% 31.2%vs RHP 391 11.1% 25.0% 23.3% 26

6 Taylor Trammell 50 C +625 COOL 61 0.156 87.8 9.5% 18.9%vs RHP 413 11.6% 0.0% 11.8% 25

7 Isaac Paredes 47 D +525 COOL 79 0.162 86.0 6.0% 17.0%vs RHP 375 11.7% 7.7% 11.8% 38

8 Jose Altuve 41 D +750 WARM 123 0.153 85.5 5.9% 20.0%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 38

9 Christian Vazquez 37 D — COOL 160 0.121 86.0 4.0% 17.6%vs RHP 375 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 11

vs Hayden Wesneski · RHP 0.45 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.60 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 70 B +220 COOL 1 0.283 92.3 10.7% 42.4%vs RHP 403 23.9% 33.3% 36.5% 31

2 Bryce Harper 57 C +400 COOL 24 0.229 90.4 8.6% 34.8%vs RHP 402 18.0% 8.3% 19.0% 31

3 Brandon Marsh 44 D +700 COOL 100 0.152 89.2 7.4% 18.4%vs RHP 391 11.0% 0.0% 10.6% 18

4 Alec Bohm 43 D +625 WARM 113 0.142 90.5 6.4% 13.3%vs RHP 394 10.6% 9.1% 7.1% 25

5 Bryson Stott 42 D +625 COOL 120 0.146 89.1 6.2% 9.5%vs RHP 393 7.5% 8.3% 9.0% 29

6 Trea Turner 41 D +525 WARM 127 0.138 88.4 6.6% 17.9%vs RHP 392 11.9% 0.0% 7.3% 38

7 J.T. Realmuto 37 D +700 WARM 158 0.132 89.7 5.8% 17.8%vs RHP 397 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 21

8 Justin Crawford 30 D — COOL 198 0.083 87.2 3.0% 4.2%vs RHP 382 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% 18

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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