TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ CWS

Playable air · 1.07×

PIT @ CWS

Rate Field · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — Roof unknown

Best of game Brandon Lowe conv 25 · vs Burke ⟷ Colson Montgomery conv 33 · vs Chandler → edge: Colson Montgomery

ATTACK Sean Burke RHP · CWS

leak 73

1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · leakiest side of this game

1 Brandon Lowe +370 C ●●●●○

2 Oneil Cruz +330 C ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +475 D ●●○○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 69

0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · stingy — thin edge

1 Colson Montgomery +330 C+ ●●●●●

2 Tristan Peters +700 D ●●○○○

3 Munetaka Murakami +290 C+ ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Colson Montgomery: 12.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 36.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CWS Colson Montgomery ✶ vs Chandler Edge +330 0.225 · 88.8 · 8.6% 36.4% 29.1% F B O C+ 62

· PIT Brandon Lowe vs Burke Edge +370 0.223 · 91.0 · 9.5% 22.2% 27.4% F B O C 59

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Chandler Edge +290 0.267 · 93.9 · 10.5% 8.3% 20.4% F B O C+ 63

· PIT Oneil Cruz COOL vs Burke Edge +330 0.206 · 95.0 · 11.3% 9.1% 17.5% F B O C 58

· CWS Randal Grichuk vs Chandler — 0.280 · 91.4 · 8.2% 0.0% 23.0% F B O C 57

· CWS Miguel Vargas COOL vs Chandler +390 0.234 · 90.6 · 8.9% 8.3% 13.3% F B O C 58

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CWS Tristan Peters vs Chandler Edge +700 0.189 · 87.6 · 5.9% 16.7% 14.6% F B O D 48

· CWS Andrew Benintendi vs Chandler Edge +425 0.174 · 89.0 · 7.1% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 48

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Burke Edge +475 0.161 · 91.0 · 9.2% 9.1% 10.8% F B O D 48

· PIT Jared Triolo vs Burke — 0.070 · 86.6 · 4.4% 11.1% 7.4% F B O D 32

· CWS Braden Montgomery COOL vs Chandler Edge +750 0.134 · 88.6 · 5.0% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 40

· PIT Spencer Horwitz COOL vs Burke Edge +575 0.127 · 87.0 · 7.0% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 40

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Chandler Edge +850 0.125 · 87.3 · 5.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 38

· PIT Jake Mangum COOL vs Burke Edge — 0.086 · 85.5 · 3.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· PIT Nick Gonzales vs Burke +850 0.087 · 86.0 · 4.7% 0.0% 7.6% F B O D 32

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Chandler — 0.124 · 87.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.2% ← leak BRK 36.6% OFF 2.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

15.3% 7.9% 9.0% 11.7% C 59 +370

Oneil Cruz L Edge

17.4% 17.2% 11.4% 16.2% C 58 +330

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

12.0% 12.4% 7.3% 11.1% D 48 +475

139

Spencer Horwitz L Edge

6.3% 5.3% 8.3% 6.3% D 40 +575

180

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.2% 1.0% 0.0% 1.9% D 34 —

192

Nick Gonzales R

2.8% 4.2% 0.0% 2.9% D 32 +850

193

Jared Triolo R

2.6% 2.0% 3.0% 2.6% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.2% usage) carries Burke's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 55.7% ← leak BRK 29.4% OFF 15.0% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Munetaka Murakami L Edge

22.4% 16.2% 12.9% 18.9% C+ 63 +290

Colson Montgomery L Edge

13.2% 10.0% 14.9% 12.7% C+ 62 +330

Miguel Vargas R

15.5% 10.2% 12.8% 13.6% C 58 +390

Randal Grichuk R

8.2% 11.1% 25.0% 11.7% C 57 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Tristan Peters L Edge

7.6% 4.1% 1.9% 5.8% D 48 +700

Andrew Benintendi L Edge

12.7% 4.1% 4.7% 8.7% D 48 +425

136

Braden Montgomery S Edge

5.9% 2.0% 3.5% 4.3% D 40 +750

157

Sam Antonacci L Edge

6.8% 4.0% 0.0% 5.2% D 38 +850

162

Chase Meidroth R

3.9% 5.2% 3.3% 4.1% D 37 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (55.7% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Lowe Cruz Murakami Montgomery Peters

Legend

attack side — vs Burke fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Colson Montgomery +330 · 62

Brandon Lowe +370 · 59

Stadium conditions

Rate Field

First pitch 7:40p · roof unknown

Park 1.07× Wind unknown — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Boost · Combined 1.07× Unknown stadium. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Sean Burke · RHP 1.07 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.13 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 59 C +370 · 16 0.223 91.0 9.5% 25.8%vs RHP 390 17.2% 22.2% 27.4% 25

2 Oneil Cruz 58 C +330 COOL 19 0.206 95.0 11.3% 38.2%vs RHP 413 22.2% 9.1% 17.5% 25

3 Bryan Reynolds 48 D +475 WARM 72 0.161 91.0 9.2% 15.2%vs RHP 410 10.7% 9.1% 10.8% 35

4 Spencer Horwitz 40 D +575 COOL 139 0.127 87.0 7.0% 13.4%vs RHP 395 8.8% 0.0% 8.6% 30

5 Jake Mangum 34 D — COOL 180 0.086 85.5 3.8% 9.1%vs RHP 393 4.2% 0.0% 8.0% 23

6 Nick Gonzales 32 D +850 · 192 0.087 86.0 4.7% 9.4%vs RHP 397 6.0% 0.0% 7.6% 31

7 Jared Triolo 32 D — WARM 193 0.070 86.6 4.4% 8.0%vs RHP 409 2.5% 11.1% 7.4% 23

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.80 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.51 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 63 C+ +290 COOL 8 0.267 93.9 10.5% 36.4%vs RHP 402 18.2% 8.3% 20.4% 23

2 Colson Montgomery ✶ 62 C+ +330 WARM 12 0.225 88.8 8.6% 27.6%vs RHP 397 22.7% 36.4% 29.1% 22

3 Miguel Vargas 58 C +390 COOL 21 0.234 90.6 8.9% 17.1%vs RHP 392 20.0% 8.3% 13.3% 37

4 Randal Grichuk 57 C — WARM 23 0.280 91.4 8.2% 15.4%vs RHP 390 14.3% 0.0% 23.0% 11

5 Tristan Peters 48 D +700 WARM 67 0.189 87.6 5.9% 13.6%vs RHP 377 11.4% 16.7% 14.6% 34

6 Andrew Benintendi 48 D +425 WARM 70 0.174 89.0 7.1% 16.3%vs RHP 388 12.5% 10.0% 11.7% 24

7 Braden Montgomery 40 D +750 COOL 136 0.134 88.6 5.0% 18.5%vs RHP 395 7.4% 9.1% 9.3% 39

8 Sam Antonacci 38 D +850 COOL 157 0.125 87.3 5.5% 11.6%vs RHP 390 7.6% 0.0% 8.3% 35

9 Chase Meidroth 37 D — COOL 162 0.124 87.3 4.9% 14.0%vs RHP 379 7.3% 0.0% 7.2% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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