TheHomeRuns.org — AZ @ KC

Kauffman Stadium is live · 1.65×

AZ @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 7:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.03× Wind 13 mph slight_out 91°F Roof open

Hourly window

+6 ↑

6:40p

+7 ↑

7:40p

+10 ↑

8:40p

+12 ↑

9:40p

+12 ↑

10:40p

conditions build late — the 9:40p window peaks +12

Best of game Carter Jensen conv 27 · vs Proxy ⟷ Ketel Marte conv 17 · vs Wacha → edge: Carter Jensen

ATTACK AZ Bullpen Proxy · AZ

leak 40

1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Carter Jensen +500 C+ ●●●●○

2 Vinnie Pasquantino +575 D ●●●○○

3 Jac Caglianone — C+ ●●○○○

FADE Michael Wacha RHP · KC

leak 14

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ketel Marte +350 C ●●●○○

2 Gabriel Moreno +575 D ●●●○○

3 Nolan Arenado +500 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Carter Jensen: Match 21.2% · 14D pace 33.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· KC Carter Jensen ✶ vs Proxy +500 0.210 · 91.4 · 11.2% 33.3% 21.2% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Wacha Edge +350 0.197 · 90.1 · 8.3% 20.0% 14.3% F B O C 52

· KC Jac Caglianone COOL vs Proxy — 0.211 · 93.1 · 13.7% 10.0% 14.3% F B O C+ 60

· AZ Corbin Carroll vs Wacha Edge +370 0.228 · 91.8 · 9.2% 8.3% 13.4% F B O C 54

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Proxy +575 0.146 · 89.7 · 8.0% 25.0% 13.1% F B O D 47

· AZ Gabriel Moreno vs Wacha +575 0.169 · 89.3 · 7.5% 16.7% 16.2% F B O D 47

· AZ Nolan Arenado COOL vs Wacha +500 0.190 · 84.7 · 6.6% 7.7% 14.8% F B O D 47

· AZ Tim Tawa vs Wacha +500 0.149 · 90.8 · 8.3% 8.3% 12.1% F B O D 45

· AZ Ryan Waldschmidt vs Wacha +850 0.112 · 87.0 · 6.8% 9.1% 9.3% F B O D 38

· KC Nick Loftin vs Proxy +850 0.148 · 87.1 · 4.4% 10.0% 7.9% F B O D 39

· KC Bobby Witt vs Proxy — 0.170 · 92.3 · 11.8% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 49

· KC Michael Massey vs Proxy +750 0.164 · 89.7 · 6.0% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· KC Salvador Perez vs Proxy +425 0.156 · 88.8 · 10.3% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 44

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Wacha Edge +850 0.114 · 87.4 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 34

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Proxy — 0.116 · 88.4 · 5.3% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 36

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas COOL vs Wacha Edge +850 0.131 · 87.4 · 4.7% 0.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.7% ← leak OFF 24.7% BRK 18.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Corbin Carroll L Edge

13.2% 8.1% 13.2% 12.1% C 54 +370

Ketel Marte S Edge

13.4% 3.4% 8.5% 10.0% C 52 +350

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Gabriel Moreno R

8.4% 8.0% 7.8% 8.1% D 47 +575

Nolan Arenado R

9.5% 4.8% 1.7% 6.3% D 47 +500

Tim Tawa R

9.5% 12.0% 10.0% 9.9% D 45 +500

155

Ryan Waldschmidt R

7.6% 0.0% 8.0% 6.7% D 38 +850

173

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.2% 1.2% 2.5% 3.2% D 35 +850

179

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.6% 1.9% 1.2% 2.8% D 34 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.7% usage) carries Wacha's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

No arsenal data cached for AZ Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Marte Moreno Jensen Pasquantino

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 1

Carter Jensen +500 · 60

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.03× Wind 13 mph slight_out 91°F open

↑

13 mph · slight_out

91°F

6:40p

↑

13 mph · slight_out

90°F

7:40p

+10

↑

13 mph · slight_out

89°F

8:40p

+12

↑

13 mph · slight_out

88°F

9:40p · peak

+12

↑

12 mph · out

87°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.65× 91°F, wind 13 mph SSE (slight_out) — modifier: +6 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Michael Wacha · RHP 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 54 C +370 · 37 0.228 91.8 9.2% 16.5%vs RHP 402 12.9% 8.3% 13.4% 34

2 Ketel Marte 52 C +350 COOL 48 0.197 90.1 8.3% 15.1%vs RHP 408 15.3% 20.0% 14.3% 16

3 Gabriel Moreno 47 D +575 · 76 0.169 89.3 7.5% 13.6%vs RHP 400 10.3% 16.7% 16.2% 30

4 Nolan Arenado 47 D +500 COOL 77 0.190 84.7 6.6% 21.1%vs RHP 389 14.9% 7.7% 14.8% 35

5 Tim Tawa 45 D +500 WARM 90 0.149 90.8 8.3% 23.7%vs RHP 398 8.7% 8.3% 12.1% 20

6 Ryan Waldschmidt 38 D +850 WARM 155 0.112 87.0 6.8% 9.7%vs RHP 415 3.8% 9.1% 9.3% 19

7 Ildemaro Vargas 35 D +850 COOL 173 0.131 87.4 4.7% 6.4%vs RHP 396 4.6% 0.0% 6.6% 35

8 Geraldo Perdomo 34 D +850 COOL 179 0.114 87.4 4.3% 9.8%vs RHP 383 6.2% 0.0% 7.0% 35

vs AZ Bullpen Proxy 1.12 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Carter Jensen ✶ 60 C+ +500 WARM 26 0.210 91.4 11.2% 14.8% 399 16.5% 33.3% 21.2% 31

2 Jac Caglianone 60 C+ — COOL 27 0.211 93.1 13.7% 25.3% 416 14.4% 10.0% 14.3% 31

3 Bobby Witt 49 D — WARM 89 0.170 92.3 11.8% 11.7% 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.8% 40

4 Vinnie Pasquantino 47 D +575 WARM 102 0.146 89.7 8.0% 8.6% 396 11.6% 25.0% 13.1% 37

5 Salvador Perez 44 D +425 WARM 131 0.156 88.8 10.3% 12.4% 405 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 40

6 Michael Massey 42 D +750 WARM 153 0.164 89.7 6.0% 10.4% 399 7.3% 0.0% 9.2% 16

7 Nick Loftin 39 D +850 WARM 168 0.148 87.1 4.4% 7.4% 397 9.2% 10.0% 7.9% 31

8 Isaac Collins 36 D — COOL 188 0.116 88.4 5.3% 5.4% 394 5.1% 0.0% 6.8% 26

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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