TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ DET

Suppressed air · 0.94×

MIN @ DET

Comerica Park · 6:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 76°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

6:40p

-6 ↑

7:40p

-5 ↑

8:40p

-6 ↑

9:40p

-6 ↑

10:40p

the 8:40p window peaks -5

Best of game Riley Greene conv 25 · vs Kremer ⟷ Kody Clemens conv 25 · vs Anderson → edge: Kody Clemens

ATTACK Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 93

2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · leakiest side of this game

1 Riley Greene +425 C ●●●●○

2 Spencer Torkelson +425 C ●●●○○

3 Hao-Yu Lee +625 D ●○○○○

FADE Drew Anderson RHP · DET

leak 76

1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kody Clemens +425 C ●●●●○

2 Brooks Lee +850 D ●●●○○

3 Trevor Larnach +950 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kody Clemens: Match 24.1% · 14D pace 25.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Riley Greene vs Kremer Edge +425 0.191 · 90.5 · 11.5% 28.6% 21.6% F B O C 55

· MIN Kody Clemens ✶ vs Anderson Edge +425 0.226 · 92.4 · 9.7% 25.0% 24.1% F B O C 56

· — Spencer Torkelson vs Kremer +425 0.189 · 89.3 · 10.4% 20.0% 23.4% F B O C 54

· — Dillon Dingler COOL vs Kremer +575 0.213 · 88.5 · 9.2% 0.0% 15.9% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· MIN Brooks Lee HOT vs Anderson Edge +850 0.189 · 88.3 · 5.8% 25.0% 17.8% F B O D 46

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Anderson Edge +950 0.153 · 87.9 · 7.7% 20.0% 9.0% F B O D 41

· MIN Royce Lewis COOL vs Anderson +475 0.166 · 89.8 · 9.5% 8.3% 11.5% F B O D 45

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Anderson Edge +525 0.167 · 89.9 · 8.6% 9.1% 10.5% F B O D 44

· — Hao-Yu Lee vs Kremer +625 0.148 · 89.7 · 8.6% 8.3% 10.7% F B O D 48

· MIN Luke Keaschall vs Anderson +950 0.114 · 85.5 · 5.3% 8.3% 8.4% F B O D 33

· MIN Victor Caratini vs Anderson Edge — 0.102 · 89.5 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 32

· — Colt Keith COOL vs Kremer Edge +575 0.141 · 89.0 · 8.0% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 40

· — Gleyber Torres vs Kremer +750 0.114 · 86.4 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 37

· — Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Kremer Edge +575 0.136 · 88.0 · 7.7% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 41

· — Zach Mckinstry COOL vs Kremer Edge +950 0.095 · 85.6 · 4.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 41.5% OFF 30.5% BRK 27.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kody Clemens L Edge

9.3% 11.9% 19.0% 11.9% C 56 +425

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.6% 0.9% 0.9% 4.2% D 46 +850

Royce Lewis R

13.7% 9.1% 7.1% 11.3% D 45 +475

101

Josh Bell S Edge

9.7% 5.8% 12.2% 9.4% D 44 +525

129

Trevor Larnach L Edge

7.6% 6.2% 8.3% 7.5% D 41 +950

187

Luke Keaschall R

4.6% 0.0% 2.8% 3.6% D 33 +950

189

Victor Caratini S Edge

5.6% 5.7% 11.1% 6.4% D 32 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Anderson's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.0% ← leak OFF 26.2% BRK 13.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Riley Greene L Edge

16.1% 9.1% 17.6% 15.2% C 55 +425

Spencer Torkelson R

13.1% 11.1% 11.1% 12.4% C 54 +425

Dillon Dingler R

11.7% 6.2% 7.5% 10.0% C 52 +575

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Hao-Yu Lee R

12.1% 3.6% 4.8% 8.6% D 48 +625

130

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

8.6% 1.3% 6.7% 6.9% D 41 +575

143

Colt Keith L Edge

7.1% 3.0% 14.3% 7.4% D 40 +575

164

Gleyber Torres R

7.8% 4.3% 4.3% 6.5% D 37 +750

201

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

2.9% 0.0% 1.6% 2.1% D 30 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.0% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Clemens Lee Larnach Greene Torkelson

Legend

attack side — vs Kremer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Riley Greene +425 · 55

Kody Clemens +425 · 56

Spencer Torkelson +425 · 54

Stadium conditions

Comerica Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 0.94× Wind 6 mph in 76°F open

-7

↑

6 mph · in

76°F

6:40p

-6

↑

5 mph · in

74°F

7:40p

-5

↑

4 mph · in

73°F

8:40p · peak

-6

↑

4 mph · in

71°F

9:40p

-6

↑

4 mph · in

69°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 76°F, wind 6 mph SSE (in) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Drew Anderson · RHP 1.29 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.49 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kody Clemens ✶ 56 C +425 · 29 0.226 92.4 9.7% 20.4%vs RHP 391 17.5% 25.0% 24.1% 29

2 Brooks Lee 46 D +850 HOT 87 0.189 88.3 5.8% 20.9%vs RHP 374 16.7% 25.0% 17.8% 41

3 Royce Lewis 45 D +475 COOL 93 0.166 89.8 9.5% 15.9%vs RHP 402 14.0% 8.3% 11.5% 32

4 Josh Bell 44 D +525 COOL 101 0.167 89.9 8.6% 20.0%vs RHP 410 11.3% 9.1% 10.5% 31

5 Trevor Larnach 41 D +950 WARM 129 0.153 87.9 7.7% 14.8%vs RHP 395 9.9% 20.0% 9.0% 23

6 Luke Keaschall 33 D +950 WARM 187 0.114 85.5 5.3% 10.3%vs RHP 378 7.2% 8.3% 8.4% 38

7 Victor Caratini 32 D — WARM 189 0.102 89.5 7.1% 13.9%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 4

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.28 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Riley Greene 55 C +425 WARM 35 0.191 90.5 11.5% 17.5%vs RHP 401 13.0% 28.6% 21.6% 15

2 Spencer Torkelson 54 C +425 · 38 0.189 89.3 10.4% 25.7%vs RHP 392 14.7% 20.0% 23.4% 19

3 Dillon Dingler 52 C +575 COOL 51 0.213 88.5 9.2% 27.2%vs RHP 398 17.4% 0.0% 15.9% 31

4 Hao-Yu Lee 48 D +625 WARM 73 0.148 89.7 8.6% 24.0%vs RHP 399 15.8% 8.3% 10.7% 25

5 Kevin Mcgonigle 41 D +575 COOL 130 0.136 88.0 7.7% 9.6%vs RHP 397 18.2% 0.0% 8.1% 37

6 Colt Keith 40 D +575 COOL 143 0.141 89.0 8.0% 13.0%vs RHP 385 6.2% 0.0% 8.9% 12

7 Gleyber Torres 37 D +750 WARM 164 0.114 86.4 7.5% 14.3%vs RHP 393 8.4% 0.0% 8.4% 28

8 Zach Mckinstry 30 D +950 COOL 201 0.095 85.6 4.3% 5.7%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.4% 20

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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