TheHomeRuns.org — TEX @ SEA

Neutral air · 1.02×

TEX @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 9:40p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 69°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

-3 ↑

6:40p

-3 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at -3

Best of game Joc Pederson conv 45 · vs Proxy ⟷ Cal Raleigh conv 29 · vs Proxy → edge: Joc Pederson

ATTACK SEA Bullpen Proxy · CHC

leak 58

1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · leakiest side of this game

1 Joc Pederson +500 C+ ●●●●●

2 Ezequiel Duran +700 D ●●●○○

3 Jake Burger +500 C ●●●○○

FADE TEX Bullpen Proxy · SF

leak 57

1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Cal Raleigh +280 C+ ●●●●○

2 Dominic Canzone +525 C ●●●○○

3 Randy Arozarena +475 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Joc Pederson: Match 30.1% · 14D pace 60.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — Joc Pederson ✶ vs Proxy +500 0.248 · 92.3 · 11.4% 60.0% 30.1% F B O C+ 66

· — Cal Raleigh HOT vs Proxy +280 0.193 · 89.9 · 14.9% 36.4% 21.0% F B O C+ 62

· — Jake Burger vs Proxy +500 0.194 · 90.2 · 11.9% 18.2% 22.3% F B O C 57

· — Dominic Canzone vs Proxy +525 0.221 · 91.1 · 11.9% 18.2% 18.2% F B O C 59

· — Randy Arozarena vs Proxy +475 0.189 · 90.7 · 7.9% 16.7% 17.0% F B O C 51

· — Corey Seager vs Proxy +330 0.190 · 91.6 · 14.9% 16.7% 14.5% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 9 long shots

· — Ezequiel Duran vs Proxy +700 0.180 · 89.0 · 6.4% 25.0% 19.3% F B O D 48

· — Evan Carter COOL vs Proxy +950 0.132 · 87.9 · 5.4% 16.7% 7.9% F B O D 38

· — Brandon Nimmo COOL vs Proxy +575 0.154 · 92.3 · 9.8% 8.3% 9.5% F B O D 47

· — Wyatt Langford COOL vs Proxy +500 0.191 · 88.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 12.0% F B O D 45

· — Julio Rodríguez vs Proxy +425 0.153 · 89.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 9.8% F B O D 46

· — Nicky Lopez COOL vs Proxy — 0.043 · 84.3 · — 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 20

· — Cole Young vs Proxy +750 0.136 · 88.1 · 4.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 37

· — J.P. Crawford COOL vs Proxy +850 0.123 · 87.9 · 5.7% 0.0% 8.2% F B O D 35

· — Josh Naylor COOL vs Proxy +850 0.095 · 87.1 · 4.4% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 32

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for SEA Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

No arsenal data cached for TEX Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Pederson Seager Burger Duran Raleigh Canzone Arozarena

Legend

attack side — vs Proxy fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Joc Pederson +500 · 66

Cal Raleigh +280 · 62

Ezequiel Duran +700 · 48

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof retractable

Park 1.02× Wind 7 mph cross 69°F retractable

-3

↑

7 mph · cross

69°F

6:40p · peak

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

66°F

7:40p

-3

↑

5 mph · cross

64°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

63°F

9:40p

-4

↑

4 mph · in

62°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 69°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs SEA Bullpen Proxy 1.25 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Joc Pederson ✶ 66 C+ +500 WARM 11 0.248 92.3 11.4% 24.8% 396 23.2% 60.0% 30.1% 16

2 Corey Seager 59 C +330 · 31 0.190 91.6 14.9% 18.8% 395 16.7% 16.7% 14.5% 36

3 Jake Burger 57 C +500 WARM 40 0.194 90.2 11.9% 19.1% 402 16.3% 18.2% 22.3% 31

4 Ezequiel Duran 48 D +700 · 94 0.180 89.0 6.4% 15.7% 397 13.9% 25.0% 19.3% 37

5 Brandon Nimmo 47 D +575 COOL 103 0.154 92.3 9.8% 11.4% 404 9.8% 8.3% 9.5% 38

6 Wyatt Langford 45 D +500 COOL 121 0.191 88.9 6.3% 13.2% 396 14.4% 0.0% 12.0% 32

7 Evan Carter 38 D +950 COOL 174 0.132 87.9 5.4% 8.7% 380 7.8% 16.7% 7.9% 20

8 Nicky Lopez 20 D — COOL 216 0.043 84.3 — 3.0% 397 1.9% 0.0% 8.7% 5

vs TEX Bullpen Proxy 1.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Cal Raleigh 62 C+ +280 HOT 17 0.193 89.9 14.9% 15.2% 383 16.4% 36.4% 21.0% 23

2 Dominic Canzone 59 C +525 · 30 0.221 91.1 11.9% 21.0% 404 15.3% 18.2% 18.2% 34

3 Randy Arozarena 51 C +475 · 74 0.189 90.7 7.9% 20.8% 386 15.2% 16.7% 17.0% 31

4 Julio Rodríguez 46 D +425 · 114 0.153 89.9 9.0% 14.9% 404 14.9% 0.0% 9.8% 35

5 Cole Young 37 D +750 WARM 181 0.136 88.1 4.7% 10.9% 383 11.0% 0.0% 8.2% 27

6 J.P. Crawford 35 D +850 COOL 196 0.123 87.9 5.7% 13.3% 388 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 26

7 Josh Naylor 32 D +850 COOL 206 0.095 87.1 4.4% 7.3% 392 5.8% 0.0% 7.5% 38

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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