Riley Cornelio

RHP

0 matchups scored · 0 game days · 7 listed today

HRs allowed

HR rate (pool)

20.4%

Overall HR/FB

5.08

FIP

5.8

xFIP

#29

Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)

Leak meter STINGY

LEAKY 87

season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone

Tonight's read

vulnerability percentile · model flags

no model flags today

Vulnerability 87th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge

Where he leaks

quality of contact allowed · season

Barrel% allowed

—

Hard-Hit% allowed

—

Fly-ball rate

—

Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.

Recent form

HR allowed by scored game day

Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.

Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.

WSH @ SD 9:40p · Petco Park Park 0.89 Wind 9.0 NNW in Roof open · 90°F BP FIP 4.84 BP HR 15.3% 2L / 5R listed · lineup: proxy_pa_leaders

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × his arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 50.8% FB 49.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

47 Ty France R

10.5% 8.9% 9.4% C 52

59 Manny Machado R

5.4% 12.1% 9.8% C 50

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

86 Jackson Merrill L Edge

11.2% 13.1% 11.7% D 46

106 Fernando Tatis R

14.8% 11.1% 12.8% D 43

183 Xander Bogaerts R

4.3% 6.9% 5.9% D 33

197 Freddy Fermin R

4.7% 3.6% 4.2% D 31

208 Jake Cronenworth L Edge

2.3% 3.2% 3.0% D 28

Read the columns: the breaking family (50.8% usage) carries his damage — BRK is the leak. 2 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Arsenal ledger

per-pitch damage against · season

PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage

Slider Breaking 50.8% 79.0 14.1° 2 +1.2

Fastball Hard 43.8% 82.9 27.4° 0 +0.1

Cutter Hard 5.5% 86.4 5.0° 0 +1.1

RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.

Full ledger

pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked

Pool matchups0

HRs allowed (pool)0

Pool HR rate0%

Pool HR/game day—

Top-15 matchups0

HRs to top-150

Overall HR/FB20.4% 87

HR/9—

FIP5.08 84

xFIP5.8

FIP − xFIP—

Barrel% allowed—

Hard-Hit% allowed—

FB%—

K/9—

BB/9—

WHIP—

IP—

Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-08

Slider

Breaking · 50.8% usage

+1.2 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against79.0 mph

Avg launch angle14.1°

HRs allowed2

Pitches232

Fastball

Hard · 43.8% usage

+0.1 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against82.9 mph

Avg launch angle27.4°

HRs allowed0

Pitches200

Cutter

Hard · 5.5% usage

+1.1 run value against / 100 pitches

Avg EV against86.4 mph

Avg launch angle5.0°

HRs allowed0

Pitches25

Usage by handedness

what tonight's lefties/righties will see

Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.

Zone map

damage by location

Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.

Pitcher vs. Batter

career PA vs tonight's listed order

BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage

Ty France R 0———— never faced

Manny Machado R 0———— never faced

Jackson Merrill L 0———— never faced

Fernando Tatis R 0———— never faced

Xander Bogaerts R 0———— never faced

Freddy Fermin R 0———— never faced

Jake Cronenworth L 0———— never faced

BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.

HR Log

0 allowed · scored pool

No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.

Game-day log

last 0 scored game days · pool

No scored game days yet for Riley Cornelio.

Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.

Tonight — Petco Park

open-air · game-window conditions

Park Factor 0.889 Wind 9 mph from NNW Temp 90°F Roof Open

TimeWindTempFIT

6:40p 9 90° -9

7:40p 8 87° -9

8:40p 8 85° -9

9:40p 7 83° -8

10:40p 7 82° -8

-9

Slight red alignment

park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal

Game-window avg wind 8 mph from NNW

FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.

Fences vs his leak

wall distance · damage overlay

336ft

avg

396ft

avg

322ft

avg

vs LHH → RF

358ft

0 HRs allowed

vs RHH → LF

351ft

0 HRs allowed

Shortest: RF 322 ft

Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.

Venue splits

HRs allowed by venue · pool

No scored matchups by venue yet for Riley Cornelio.

⚾

Six home runs to freedom

Riley Cornelio's full pitcher profile is waiting

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Common questions about Riley Cornelio

Is Riley Cornelio likely to give up a home run tonight?

Riley Cornelio pitches tonight (WSH @ SD at Petco Park). This season he has allowed 0 home runs across 0 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.

Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.

Riley Cornelio

Riley Cornelio's full pitcher profile is waiting

Common questions about Riley Cornelio

Is Riley Cornelio likely to give up a home run tonight?

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.