Today · 2026-07-22

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⭐ Today's Slate

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Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 5 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Kyle Schwarber vs Eric Lauer FIP 6.16 HR/FB 25.0% #2 Shohei Ohtani vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.1 HR/FB 23.2% #9 Willson Contreras vs Dean Kremer FIP 6.35 HR/FB 20.0% #13 Max Muncy vs Aaron Nola FIP 5.1 HR/FB 23.2% #14 Bryce Harper vs Eric Lauer FIP 6.16 HR/FB 25.0%

📦 STACK Eric Lauer FIP 6.16 HR/FB 25.0% → #1 Kyle Schwarber, #14 Bryce Harper

📦 STACK Aaron Nola FIP 5.1 HR/FB 23.2% → #2 Shohei Ohtani, #13 Max Muncy

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-07-20. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.9% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Kyle Schwarber (L) ³	82	-14.4	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟢 A	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	33	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls18 BBE Barrel%14.1% Avg EV93.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffSean Manaea Exit Velo106.0 mph Angle41.0° Distance399 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○●○○	0.7×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.10 FIP3.84 IP867.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+2 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+2 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 33 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
2	Shohei Ohtani (L) ⁵	73	-13.9	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%12.9% Avg EV93.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffMitch Bratt Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle33.0° Distance437 ft StadiumDodger Stadium	○○○○○	1.7×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.25 FIP3.90 IP904.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-11 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
3	Ben Rice (L) ⁹	71	-13.1	●	Mitch Keller (RHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	1:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.7% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarson Palmquist Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance387 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.09 FIP4.08 IP917.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-63 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.3°F Wind9.0 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-63 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note73°F, wind 9 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0
4	Ben Rice (L) ⁹	71	-13.1	●	Bubba Chandler (RHP) PIT @ NYY · Yankee Stadium	7:05p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffCarson Palmquist Exit Velo102.0 mph Angle29.0° Distance387 ft StadiumNationals Park	○○○○○	3.5×	·	PIT Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.7% HR/91.09 FIP4.08 IP917.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-63 Weather · Yankee Stadium warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp73.3°F Wind9.0 mph SW Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-63 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR Note73°F, wind 9 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0
5	Matt Olson (L)	71	-6.5	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	26	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls20 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffCal Quantrill Exit Velo110.7 mph Angle27.0° Distance420 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○○○	0.8×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.36 IP900.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+49 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.9 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+49 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note74°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
6	Hunter Goodman (R) ²	70	-12.0	●	Cade Cavalli (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	31	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffSam Moll Exit Velo105.1 mph Angle29.0° Distance442 ft StadiumCoors Field	○○○●○	0.3×	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.41 FIP4.69 IP895.3 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-35 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.0°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-35 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 30 HR Note69°F, wind 1 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +0
7	James Wood (L) ²	70	-14.9	●	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	28	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV95.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	10d Last HR · 2026-07-12 OffWill Warren Exit Velo110.0 mph Angle26.0° Distance434 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○○	2.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.45 FIP4.90 IP909.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-49 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.0°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-49 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 28 HR Note69°F, wind 1 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +0
8	Junior Caminero (R) ³	69	-6.3	●	Braydon Fisher (RHP) TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	29	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%12.5% Avg EV93.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffEduardo Rivera Exit Velo111.6 mph Angle26.0° Distance423 ft StadiumFenway Park	●●○○○	1.5×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.17 FIP4.08 IP909.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 29 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
9	Willson Contreras (R) ⁶	69	-13.7	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) BAL @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%12.2% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumFenway Park	○●○●○	0.2×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.07 IP894.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+43 Weather · Fenway Park mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+43 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note71°F, wind 2 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
10	Ty France (R) ²	68	-0.2	●	Martín Pérez (LHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%9.1% Avg EV92.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffBryce Elder Exit Velo100.3 mph Angle31.0° Distance397 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○●●	0.0×	1	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.13 FIP4.12 IP891.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+42 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.9 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+42 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 15 HR Note74°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
11	Byron Buxton (R) ⁵	68	-6.6	●	Slade Cecconi (RHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	25	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%12.1% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	30d Last HR · 2026-06-22 OffWill Klein Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle35.0° Distance394 ft StadiumTarget Field	○○○○○	4.5×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.17 FIP3.99 IP920.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-11 Weather · Progressive Field cool air · strong wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp62.1°F Wind14.3 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-11 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 27 HR Note62°F, wind 14 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4
12	Max Muncy (L) ³	67	-6.9	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	5	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffGerrit Cole Exit Velo107.9 mph Angle31.0° Distance416 ft StadiumYankee Stadium	○●○○○	1.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.25 FIP3.90 IP904.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-9 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
13	Bryce Harper (L) ²	67	-3.5	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	21	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffLandon Knack Exit Velo104.0 mph Angle25.0° Distance407 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.10 FIP3.84 IP867.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-14 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-14 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
14	Dillon Dingler (R) ⁴	65	+0.3	●	Colin Rea (RHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffTyler Ferguson Exit Velo97.4 mph Angle31.0° Distance382 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP888.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+10 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.2°F Wind6.0 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 24 HR Note65°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
15	Jake Bauers (L) ²	64	-4.0	●	Christian Scott (RHP) NYM @ MIL · American Family Field	2:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls13 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffBraxton Ashcraft Exit Velo111.8 mph Angle22.0° Distance375 ft StadiumPNC Park	○○○○○	1.2×	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.15 FIP4.13 IP927.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+11 Weather · American Family Field cool air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp55.6°F Wind2.0 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind+11 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR Note56°F, wind 2 mph WSW (in) — modifier: -1
16	Willson Contreras (R) ⁶	64	-15.3	●	Kyle Bradish (RHP) BAL @ BOS · Fenway Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV90.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffShane McClanahan Exit Velo106.8 mph Angle29.0° Distance414 ft StadiumFenway Park	○●○●○	0.2×	1	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.07 IP894.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+43 Weather · Fenway Park mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+43 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note71°F, wind 2 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
17	Drake Baldwin (L)	63	-3.4	●	Michael King (RHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV91.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	3d Last HR · 2026-07-19 OffBen Peoples Exit Velo107.9 mph Angle34.0° Distance392 ft StadiumTruist Park	○●○●○	0.5×	·	SD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.20 FIP4.36 IP900.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+48 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.9 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+48 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note74°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
18	Kody Clemens (L) ³	62	-4.6	●	Slade Cecconi (RHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	18	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffCaleb Thielbar Exit Velo102.7 mph Angle37.0° Distance391 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CLE Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.3% HR/91.17 FIP3.99 IP920.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-27 Weather · Progressive Field cool air · strong wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp62.1°F Wind14.3 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-27 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 19 HR Note62°F, wind 14 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4
19	Shea Langeliers (R) ⁵	62	-4.6	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) ATH @ AZ · Chase Field	3:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	23	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls16 BBE Barrel%14.0% Avg EV91.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	5d Last HR · 2026-07-17 OffJorbit Vivas Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle24.0° Distance399 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	●●○○○	0.8×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.53 IP893.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+10 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp84.7°F Wind3 mph NNE Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 22 HR Note85°F, wind 3 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1
20	Yordan Alvarez (L) ⁴	61	-17.1	●	Sandy Alcantara (RHP) MIA @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	33	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%10.3% Avg EV94.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffLake Bachar Exit Velo108.3 mph Angle23.0° Distance419 ft StadiumMinute Maid Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.2% HR/91.00 FIP3.99 IP931.0 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-5 Weather · Minute Maid Park warm air · light wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp81.2°F Wind5.0 mph WSW Characterin HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-5 · Neutral Spray Sourceblend · 3 HR Note81°F, wind 5 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +1
21	Kazuma Okamoto (R) ³	61	-5.3	●	Griffin Jax (RHP) TB @ TOR · Rogers Centre	7:07p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%11.7% Avg EV91.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	12d Last HR · 2026-07-10 OffJhony Brito Exit Velo107.6 mph Angle44.0° Distance377 ft StadiumPetco Park	○○○○○	3.0×	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.24 FIP4.16 IP856.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+0 Weather · Rogers Centre neutral Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Wind0 mph — Characterdome HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Roof neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 21 HR NoteDome — weather irrelevant
22	Joc Pederson (L) ⁴	61	·	●	Anthony Kay (LHP) CWS @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	17	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls15 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffErick Fedde Exit Velo105.9 mph Angle36.0° Distance423 ft StadiumGlobe Life Field	○○●○●	0.0×	·	CWS Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.08 FIP4.27 IP888.5 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-31 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light partial wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp83.5°F Wind1.4 mph S Characterslight_out HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-31 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note84°F, wind 1 mph S (slight_out) — modifier: +1
23	Spencer Torkelson (R) ²	61	-4.9	●	Colin Rea (RHP) DET @ CHC · Wrigley Field	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	18	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV89.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffBrent Suter Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle28.0° Distance420 ft StadiumAngel Stadium	○○●○○	0.5×	·	CHC Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB16.9% HR/91.58 FIP4.80 IP888.4 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+10 Weather · Wrigley Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp65.2°F Wind6.0 mph NNE Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+10 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 18 HR Note65°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0
24	Wilyer Abreu (L) ⁶	61	·	●	Dean Kremer (RHP) BAL @ BOS · Fenway Park	1:35p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	15	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%11.5% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffGarrett Cleavinger Exit Velo103.7 mph Angle28.0° Distance412 ft StadiumFenway Park	●●●○○	0.7×	·	BAL Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.7% HR/91.06 FIP4.07 IP894.6 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+53 Weather · Fenway Park mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp71.1°F Wind2.0 mph N Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+53 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note71°F, wind 2 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0
25	Manny Machado (R)	61	-5.3	●	Martín Pérez (LHP) SD @ ATL · Truist Park	7:15p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffBryce Elder Exit Velo103.9 mph Angle29.0° Distance402 ft StadiumTruist Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.1% HR/91.13 FIP4.12 IP891.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+44 Weather · Truist Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74.4°F Wind4.9 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+44 · Green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 20 HR Note74°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0
26	Brandon Marsh (L) ²	60	-1.2	●	Eric Lauer (LHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	16	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffEmmet Sheehan Exit Velo100.7 mph Angle25.0° Distance396 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.10 FIP3.84 IP867.2 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-9 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 16 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
27	Mookie Betts (R) ³	59	-0.3	●	Aaron Nola (RHP) LAD @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	13	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%9.2% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffChase Shugart Exit Velo101.9 mph Angle28.0° Distance421 ft StadiumCitizens Bank Park	○○○○●	0.0×	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.8% HR/91.25 FIP3.90 IP904.2 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-33 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp72.2°F Wind4 mph SW Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-33 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 13 HR Note72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0
28	Curtis Mead (R)	59	-2.1	●	Gabriel Hughes (RHP) WSH @ COL · Coors Field	3:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	17	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls22 BBE Barrel%7.9% Avg EV88.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	11d Last HR · 2026-07-11 OffCam Schlittler Exit Velo100.5 mph Angle33.0° Distance388 ft StadiumNationals Park	●○○○○	1.0×	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB14.3% HR/91.45 FIP4.90 IP909.7 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-36 Weather · Coors Field mild air · light partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp69.0°F Wind1.0 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-36 · Red resistance Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note69°F, wind 1 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +0
29	Tyler Soderstrom (L) ⁴	59	-1.4	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) ATH @ AZ · Chase Field	3:40p	🟠 C	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	16	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%11.6% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	4d Last HR · 2026-07-18 OffZack Littell Exit Velo100.1 mph Angle27.0° Distance406 ft StadiumSutter Health Park	○●●○○	0.5×	·	AZ Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.7% HR/91.28 FIP4.53 IP893.9 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+13 Weather · Chase Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp84.7°F Wind3 mph NNE Characterout HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind+13 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourcetrue · 17 HR Note85°F, wind 3 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1
30	Rhys Hoskins (R) ⁴	59	·	●	Bailey Ober (RHP) MIN @ CLE · Progressive Field	6:40p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	11	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls12 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV88.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	2d Last HR · 2026-07-20 OffJoe Ryan Exit Velo107.5 mph Angle31.0° Distance398 ft StadiumProgressive Field	○○○○●	0.0×	·	MIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.0% HR/91.19 FIP4.36 IP929.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-4 Weather · Progressive Field cool air · strong wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp62.1°F Wind14.3 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind-4 · Neutral Spray Sourcetrue · 11 HR Note62°F, wind 14 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

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Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

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Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

17.3%

▼ -3.5 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 19.2% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-07-21

scoring

⏳

Results scoring in progress

Catch-rate and HR totals for 2026-07-21 update once the night's games finish and the model collects results. Usually live by mid-morning.

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Esmerlyn Valdez ×4 Drake Baldwin ×2 James Wood ×2 Joc Pederson ×2 Junior Caminero ×2

❄️ Cold

Ben Rice 0 of 7d Kazuma Okamoto 0 of 6d Pete Crow-Armstrong 0 of 6d Munetaka Murakami 0 of 6d Juan Soto 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.6%

B 19.8%

C+ 16.8%

C 13.6%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-07-22

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.