TheHomeRuns.org — MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park is live · 1.15×

MIA @ HOU

Minute Maid Park · 8:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph in 81°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:10p

+1 ↑

8:10p

+2 ↑

9:10p

+4 ↑

10:10p

+7 ↑

11:10p

conditions build late — the 11:10p window peaks +7

Best of game Yordan Alvarez conv 15 · vs Alcantara ⟷ Kyle Stowers conv 14 · vs Lambert → edge: Yordan Alvarez

ATTACK Sandy Alcantara RHP · MIA

leak 61

0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · leakiest side of this game

1 Yordan Alvarez +210 C+ ●●○○○

2 Yainer Diaz +750 D ●●○○○

3 Cam Smith +625 D ●●○○○

FADE Peter Lambert RHP · HOU

leak 11

1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · stingy — thin edge

1 Kyle Stowers +290 C ●●○○○

2 Liam Hicks +850 D ●●○○○

3 Heriberto Hernández +320 D ●○○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Yordan Alvarez: 19.0% barrels overall vs the FB leak · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· HOU Yordan Alvarez ✶ vs Alcantara Edge +210 0.322 · 94.7 · 10.3% 0.0% 30.4% F B O C+ 61

· MIA Kyle Stowers COOL vs Lambert Edge +290 0.207 · 91.5 · 8.8% 12.5% 14.8% F B O C 52

· HOU Christian Walker COOL vs Alcantara +400 0.227 · 89.4 · 7.4% 0.0% 16.3% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· HOU Yainer Diaz vs Alcantara +750 0.154 · 88.0 · 5.4% 16.7% 10.6% F B O D 41

· HOU Cam Smith vs Alcantara +625 0.151 · 89.4 · 8.1% 16.7% 10.5% F B O D 45

· HOU Jeremy Peña vs Alcantara +700 0.147 · 87.6 · 4.8% 16.7% 9.5% F B O D 40

· MIA Liam Hicks COOL vs Lambert Edge +850 0.164 · 85.2 · 5.1% 12.5% 10.2% F B O D 43

· HOU Jose Altuve COOL vs Alcantara +750 0.169 · 85.7 · 5.8% 0.0% 19.9% F B O D 39

· MIA Heriberto Hernández vs Lambert +320 0.224 · 92.4 · 9.1% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 48

· MIA Otto Lopez vs Lambert +575 0.167 · 89.5 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.9% F B O D 44

· HOU Isaac Paredes vs Alcantara +475 0.160 · 86.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· HOU Christian Vazquez COOL vs Alcantara — 0.117 · 85.9 · 2.8% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 31

· MIA Javier Sanoja COOL vs Lambert +850 0.125 · 87.2 · 3.0% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 34

· MIA Jakob Marsee COOL vs Lambert Edge +950 0.093 · 86.7 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 33

· MIA Xavier Edwards COOL vs Lambert Edge +950 0.117 · 87.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 36

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.2% ← leak BRK 26.9% OFF 22.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kyle Stowers L Edge

12.6% 15.2% 3.0% 11.5% C 52 +290

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

Heriberto Hernández R

12.4% 11.8% 8.3% 11.9% D 48 +320

140

Otto Lopez R

10.4% 4.1% 2.1% 7.0% D 44 +575

152

Liam Hicks L Edge

3.5% 4.5% 3.8% 3.8% D 43 +850

214

Xavier Edwards S Edge

5.2% 2.9% 3.3% 4.3% D 36 +950

226

Javier Sanoja R

0.8% 2.7% 0.0% 1.3% D 34 +850

234

Jakob Marsee L Edge

2.8% 0.0% 8.3% 3.1% D 33 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.2% usage) carries Lambert's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 59.1% ← leak OFF 20.9% BRK 20.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Yordan Alvarez L Edge

19.6% 10.3% 24.1% 19.0% C+ 61 +210

Christian Walker R

8.9% 14.3% 11.4% 10.2% C 52 +400

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

130

Cam Smith R

9.4% 20.0% 16.1% 12.0% D 45 +625

167

Yainer Diaz R

9.0% 4.2% 2.0% 5.9% D 41 +750

169

Isaac Paredes R

7.6% 2.4% 3.9% 5.9% D 41 +475

184

Jeremy Peña R

2.9% 14.3% 3.8% 4.1% D 40 +700

187

Jose Altuve R

6.8% 0.0% 6.0% 6.0% D 39 +750

243

Christian Vazquez R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% D 31 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (59.1% usage) carries Alcantara's damage — FB is the leak. 1 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Stowers Alvarez Smith Diaz Peña

Legend

attack side — vs Alcantara fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 0

Empty zone — nobody is both hot and well-matched. Thin game; consider passing.

Stadium conditions

Minute Maid Park

First pitch 7:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 5 mph in 81°F retractable

↑

3 mph · in

99°F

7:10p

↑

4 mph · in

97°F

8:10p

↑

4 mph · cross

95°F

9:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

94°F

10:10p

↑

5 mph · slight_out

92°F

11:10p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.15× 81°F, wind 5 mph WSW (in) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Peter Lambert · RHP 1.08 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.19 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Stowers 52 C +290 COOL 73 0.207 91.5 8.8% 23.9%vs RHP 396 11.3% 12.5% 14.8% 18

2 Heriberto Hernández 48 D +320 WARM 97 0.224 92.4 9.1% 17.6%vs RHP 411 0.0% 0.0% 15.6% 21

3 Otto Lopez 44 D +575 · 140 0.167 89.5 6.9% 12.7%vs RHP 402 8.3% 0.0% 10.9% 20

4 Liam Hicks 43 D +850 COOL 152 0.164 85.2 5.1% 22.0%vs RHP 378 15.9% 12.5% 10.2% 28

5 Xavier Edwards 36 D +950 COOL 214 0.117 87.1 5.4% 3.5%vs RHP 396 5.2% 0.0% 6.2% 28

6 Javier Sanoja 34 D +850 COOL 226 0.125 87.2 3.0% 3.9%vs RHP 385 4.8% 0.0% 7.4% 29

7 Jakob Marsee 33 D +950 COOL 234 0.093 86.7 4.6% 7.8%vs RHP 379 6.3% 0.0% 6.7% 19

vs Sandy Alcantara · RHP 0.91 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.22 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Yordan Alvarez ✶ 61 C+ +210 WARM 20 0.322 94.7 10.3% 28.1%vs RHP 405 0.0% 0.0% 30.4% 24

2 Christian Walker 52 C +400 COOL 71 0.227 89.4 7.4% 27.9%vs RHP 388 18.9% 0.0% 16.3% 13

3 Cam Smith 45 D +625 · 130 0.151 89.4 8.1% 19.6%vs RHP 414 12.1% 16.7% 10.5% 19

4 Yainer Diaz 41 D +750 · 167 0.154 88.0 5.4% 24.0%vs RHP 391 9.5% 16.7% 10.6% 21

5 Isaac Paredes 41 D +475 · 169 0.160 86.7 5.7% 17.4%vs RHP 373 10.4% 0.0% 10.2% 27

6 Jeremy Peña 40 D +700 WARM 184 0.147 87.6 4.8% 17.6%vs RHP 381 9.3% 16.7% 9.5% 20

7 Jose Altuve 39 D +750 COOL 187 0.169 85.7 5.8% 25.0%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 19.9% 24

8 Christian Vazquez 31 D — COOL 243 0.117 85.9 2.8% 14.3%vs RHP 377 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 7

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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