TheHomeRuns.org — CIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park is live · 1.17×

CIN @ SEA

T-Mobile Park · 3:40p · 18 ranked batters

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph cross 92°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+4 ↑

12:40p

+4 ↑

1:40p

+4 ↑

2:40p

+4 ↑

3:40p

+4 ↑

4:40p

conditions hold steady across the window · +4 FIT

Best of game Weston Wilson conv 30 · vs Singer ⟷ Nathaniel Lowe conv 43 · vs Hancock → edge: Nathaniel Lowe

ATTACK Brady Singer RHP · CIN

leak 94

1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · leakiest side of this game

1 Weston Wilson — D ●●●●●

2 Cole Young — D ●●●●○

3 Julio Rodríguez — D ●●●○○

FADE Emerson Hancock RHP · SEA

leak 84

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nathaniel Lowe — C ●●●●●

2 Elly De La Cruz — C ●●●●●

3 Sal Stewart — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Nathaniel Lowe: 11.6% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 60.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CIN Nathaniel Lowe ✶ HOT vs Hancock Edge — 0.218 · 89.1 · 10.3% 60.0% 25.5% F B O C 53

· CIN Elly De La Cruz vs Hancock Edge — 0.230 · 94.2 · 11.6% 40.0% 23.2% F B O C 56

· CIN Sal Stewart COOL vs Hancock — 0.216 · 90.3 · 11.3% 20.0% 20.6% F B O C 51

· SEA Dominic Canzone COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.259 · 92.8 · 11.7% 12.5% 18.1% F B O C 58

· SEA Luke Raley COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.224 · 90.6 · 12.6% 0.0% 20.3% F B O C 55

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· SEA Weston Wilson HOT vs Singer — 0.138 · 86.7 · 8.1% 50.0% 9.9% F B O D 42

· SEA Cole Young vs Singer Edge — 0.165 · 88.4 · 7.1% 30.0% 18.3% F B O D 46

· SEA Julio Rodríguez vs Singer — 0.165 · 90.3 · 9.3% 25.0% 17.7% F B O D 49

· SEA Randy Arozarena vs Singer — 0.169 · 91.3 · 8.6% 20.0% 18.1% F B O D 47

· CIN Tyler Stephenson vs Hancock — 0.153 · 90.9 · 10.1% 14.3% 14.3% F B O D 41

· CIN Spencer Steer vs Hancock — 0.193 · 89.7 · 10.5% 10.0% 16.7% F B O D 47

· CIN Jj Bleday vs Hancock Edge — 0.239 · 89.0 · 9.3% 0.0% 25.9% F B O D 45

· SEA Cal Raleigh COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.145 · 87.9 · 10.4% 10.0% 8.8% F B O D 45

· SEA Colt Emerson vs Singer Edge — 0.177 · 86.5 · 7.4% 0.0% 13.0% F B O D 43

· CIN Dane Myers COOL vs Hancock — 0.117 · 90.1 · 7.8% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· SEA Josh Naylor COOL vs Singer Edge — 0.099 · 87.5 · 6.6% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 34

· CIN Ke'Bryan Hayes COOL vs Hancock — 0.071 · 90.7 · 8.7% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 32

· CIN Edwin Arroyo HOT vs Hancock Edge — 0.046 · 87.3 · 3.2% 0.0% 5.8% F B O D 25

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 73.8% ← leak BRK 20.9% OFF 5.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Elly De La Cruz S Edge

19.7% 10.9% 3.8% 14.2% C 56 —

Nathaniel Lowe L Edge

10.6% 14.3% 12.5% 11.6% C 53 —

Sal Stewart R

16.7% 10.2% 10.7% 13.9% C 51 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

101

Spencer Steer R

13.3% 10.5% 9.7% 12.0% D 47 —

115

Jj Bleday L Edge

10.3% 9.3% 6.1% 9.0% D 45 —

171

Tyler Stephenson R

13.1% 8.0% 6.2% 11.0% D 41 —

235

Dane Myers R

6.5% 6.7% 7.7% 6.7% D 34 —

250

Ke'Bryan Hayes R

9.0% 6.5% 0.0% 7.8% D 32 —

275

Edwin Arroyo S Edge

2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 25 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (73.8% usage) carries Hancock's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.8% ← leak BRK 42.2% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Dominic Canzone L Edge

17.3% 17.6% 14.8% C 58 —

Luke Raley L Edge

19.6% 13.9% 16.6% C 55 —

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Julio Rodríguez R

9.8% 7.3% 8.9% D 49 —

100

Randy Arozarena R

7.9% 9.4% 7.8% D 47 —

110

Cole Young L Edge

4.8% 9.1% 5.3% D 46 —

124

Cal Raleigh S Edge

9.2% 14.6% 11.4% D 45 —

143

Colt Emerson L Edge

5.6% 6.5% 5.8% D 43 —

166

Weston Wilson R

3.1% 25.0% 7.0% D 42 —

234

Josh Naylor L Edge

4.4% 7.1% 4.6% D 34 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (57.8% usage) carries Singer's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Cruz Lowe Stewart Steer Stephenson Canzone Rodríguez Arozarena Young Wilson

Legend

attack side — vs Singer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Nathaniel Lowe — · 53

Elly De La Cruz — · 56

Sal Stewart — · 51

Cole Young — · 46

Randy Arozarena — · 47

Stadium conditions

T-Mobile Park

First pitch 12:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.90× Wind 7 mph cross 92°F retractable

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

12:40p · peak

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

1:40p

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

2:40p

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

3:40p

↑

10 mph · out

63°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.17× 92°F, wind 7 mph N (cross) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Emerson Hancock · RHP 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.02 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Elly De La Cruz 56 C — · 36 0.230 94.2 11.6% 17.8%vs RHP 397 17.7% 40.0% 23.2% 34

2 Nathaniel Lowe ✶ 53 C — HOT 48 0.218 89.1 10.3% 31.4%vs RHP 395 17.9% 60.0% 25.5% 13

3 Sal Stewart 51 C — COOL 67 0.216 90.3 11.3% 21.2%vs RHP 393 12.9% 20.0% 20.6% 34

4 Spencer Steer 47 D — · 101 0.193 89.7 10.5% 20.0%vs RHP 394 13.0% 10.0% 16.7% 26

5 Jj Bleday 45 D — · 115 0.239 89.0 9.3% 23.9%vs RHP 387 0.0% 0.0% 25.9% 26

6 Tyler Stephenson 41 D — WARM 171 0.153 90.9 10.1% 19.5%vs RHP 395 7.8% 14.3% 14.3% 19

7 Dane Myers 34 D — COOL 235 0.117 90.1 7.8% 10.0%vs RHP 378 6.2% 0.0% 8.0% 7

8 Ke'Bryan Hayes 32 D — COOL 250 0.071 90.7 8.7% 4.0%vs RHP 365 6.2% 0.0% 5.8% 10

9 Edwin Arroyo 25 D — HOT 275 0.046 87.3 3.2% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.8% 25

vs Brady Singer · RHP 1.99 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.32 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dominic Canzone 58 C — COOL 30 0.259 92.8 11.7% 29.8%vs RHP 400 16.9% 12.5% 18.1% 25

2 Luke Raley 55 C — COOL 40 0.224 90.6 12.6% 33.3%vs RHP 385 13.7% 0.0% 20.3% 17

3 Julio Rodríguez 49 D — WARM 87 0.165 90.3 9.3% 17.9%vs RHP 410 16.7% 25.0% 17.7% 10

4 Randy Arozarena 47 D — · 100 0.169 91.3 8.6% 24.4%vs RHP 393 11.1% 20.0% 18.1% 26

5 Cole Young 46 D — · 110 0.165 88.4 7.1% 19.0%vs RHP 388 12.4% 30.0% 18.3% 32

6 Cal Raleigh 45 D — COOL 124 0.145 87.9 10.4% 13.3%vs RHP 392 12.8% 10.0% 8.8% 21

7 Colt Emerson 43 D — · 143 0.177 86.5 7.4% 29.4%vs RHP 369 11.8% 0.0% 13.0% 19

8 Weston Wilson 42 D — HOT 166 0.138 86.7 8.1% 10.5% 392 11.1% 50.0% 9.9% 7

9 Josh Naylor 34 D — COOL 234 0.099 87.5 6.6% 13.2%vs RHP 390 7.4% 0.0% 8.0% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

🏟️

Six home runs to freedom

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Every ranked bat on the Game Board, the per-side Threat Matrix, the Form × Fit lock zone, and the full stat ledger — all six lenses, every game.

Create a free account — tonight's full board is on us Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card. Your first day includes the complete board.

15 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Unlock the full game deep-dive

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.