TheHomeRuns.org — LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park is live · 1.18×

LAD @ PHI

Citizens Bank Park · 6:40p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.18× Wind 4 mph out 72°F Roof open

Hourly window

+7 ↑

6:40p

+6 ↑

7:40p

+4 ↑

8:40p

+1 ↑

9:40p

-2 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +7

Best of game Kyle Schwarber conv 34 · vs Lauer ⟷ Shohei Ohtani conv 30 · vs Nola → edge: Kyle Schwarber

ATTACK Eric Lauer LHP · LAD

leak 95

2.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · leakiest side of this game

1 Kyle Schwarber +1000 A ●●●●●

2 Trea Turner +475 C ●●●●○

3 Bryce Harper +390 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Aaron Nola RHP · PHI

leak 92

2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.25 · stingy — thin edge

1 Shohei Ohtani +205 B ●●●●●

2 Max Muncy +320 C+ ●●●○○

3 Mookie Betts +575 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Kyle Schwarber: 19.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 22.2%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· PHI Kyle Schwarber ✶ COOL vs Lauer +1000 0.307 · 93.5 · 14.1% 22.2% 45.9% F B O A 82

· LAD Shohei Ohtani vs Nola Edge +205 0.245 · 93.4 · 12.9% 22.2% 37.0% F B O B 73

· PHI Trea Turner HOT vs Lauer Edge +475 0.146 · 88.8 · 8.4% 37.5% 17.0% F B O C 57

· LAD Max Muncy COOL vs Nola Edge +320 0.235 · 90.1 · 11.5% 12.5% 28.6% F B O C+ 67

· LAD Mookie Betts COOL vs Nola +575 0.189 · 90.5 · 9.2% 11.1% 29.7% F B O C 59

· LAD Andy Pages vs Nola +475 0.191 · 89.0 · 9.0% 11.1% 21.2% F B O C 59

· PHI Bryce Harper COOL vs Lauer +390 0.237 · 90.1 · 10.8% 11.1% 18.3% F B O C+ 67

· PHI Brandon Marsh COOL vs Lauer +525 0.185 · 89.7 · 9.8% 11.1% 15.6% F B O C+ 60

· LAD Dalton Rushing COOL vs Nola Edge +390 0.209 · 89.0 · 10.6% 0.0% 26.5% F B O C 58

· PHI Alec Bohm vs Lauer Edge +525 0.139 · 90.4 · 7.4% 11.1% 10.5% F B O C 52

· LAD Freddie Freeman COOL vs Nola Edge +400 0.188 · 90.6 · 10.1% 0.0% 15.6% F B O C 58

· LAD Teoscar Hernandez COOL vs Nola +500 0.159 · 90.0 · 9.7% 0.0% 14.6% F B O C 50

· PHI Bryson Stott COOL vs Lauer +750 0.145 · 89.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 10.8% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 4 long shots

· LAD Alex Freeland COOL vs Nola Edge — 0.094 · 88.7 · 7.2% 0.0% 12.3% F B O D 44

· LAD Kyle Tucker vs Nola Edge +525 0.122 · 88.8 · 7.4% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 46

· PHI Justin Crawford COOL vs Lauer — 0.091 · 86.6 · 3.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· PHI J.T. Realmuto COOL vs Lauer Edge +500 0.129 · — · 7.0% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 44

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 50.9% ← leak BRK 35.0% OFF 14.2% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Shohei Ohtani L Edge

22.2% 11.2% 14.6% 17.5% B 73 +205

Neutral · 6

Max Muncy L Edge

17.7% 14.5% 7.1% 14.3% C+ 67 +320

Mookie Betts R

10.1% 3.7% 6.7% 8.1% C 59 +575

Andy Pages R

8.1% 8.9% 6.7% 8.2% C 59 +475

Dalton Rushing L Edge

11.7% 17.9% 3.1% 11.5% C 58 +390

Freddie Freeman L Edge

10.3% 9.8% 10.2% 10.1% C 58 +400

Teoscar Hernandez R

10.2% 14.7% 9.1% 11.0% C 50 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

119

Kyle Tucker L Edge

7.7% 3.6% 1.6% 5.5% D 46 +525

137

Alex Freeland L Edge

6.0% 10.3% 3.7% 6.5% D 44 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (50.9% usage) carries Nola's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 63.6% ← leak BRK 20.0% OFF 16.4% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Kyle Schwarber L

19.8% 15.9% 26.9% 19.5% A 82 +1000

Neutral · 5

Bryce Harper L

8.7% 16.0% 8.6% 11.2% C+ 67 +390

Brandon Marsh L

8.1% 14.9% 2.7% 9.2% C+ 60 +525

Trea Turner R Edge

8.7% 4.1% 0.0% 6.5% C 57 +475

Alec Bohm R Edge

5.2% 5.2% 6.7% 5.3% C 52 +525

Bryson Stott L

8.1% 5.1% 6.1% 6.9% C 51 +750

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

132

J.T. Realmuto R Edge

4.5% 4.1% 8.3% 4.7% D 44 +500

191

Justin Crawford L

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.9% D 39 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.6% usage) carries Lauer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ohtani Muncy Betts Pages Rushing Schwarber Harper Marsh Turner

Legend

attack side — vs Lauer fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Kyle Schwarber +1000 · 82

Shohei Ohtani +205 · 73

Stadium conditions

Citizens Bank Park

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.18× Wind 4 mph out 72°F open

↑

8 mph · slight_out

80°F

6:40p · peak

↑

7 mph · cross

78°F

7:40p

↑

7 mph · cross

76°F

8:40p

↑

8 mph · cross

74°F

9:40p

-2

↑

10 mph · in

71°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.18× 72°F, wind 4 mph SW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Aaron Nola · RHP 2.05 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.25 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shohei Ohtani 73 B +205 WARM 2 0.245 93.4 12.9% 23.2%vs RHP 405 19.8% 22.2% 37.0% 23

2 Max Muncy 67 C+ +320 COOL 12 0.235 90.1 11.5% 24.0%vs RHP 409 18.0% 12.5% 28.6% 15

3 Mookie Betts 59 C +575 COOL 27 0.189 90.5 9.2% 20.8%vs RHP 389 11.9% 11.1% 29.7% 24

4 Andy Pages 59 C +475 · 31 0.191 89.0 9.0% 21.1%vs RHP 391 14.3% 11.1% 21.2% 17

5 Dalton Rushing 58 C +390 COOL 33 0.209 89.0 10.6% 36.0%vs RHP 396 5.0% 0.0% 26.5% 6

6 Freddie Freeman 58 C +400 COOL 39 0.188 90.6 10.1% 16.9%vs RHP 398 13.4% 0.0% 15.6% 20

7 Teoscar Hernandez 50 C +500 COOL 82 0.159 90.0 9.7% 19.5%vs RHP 388 0.0% 0.0% 14.6% 20

8 Kyle Tucker 46 D +525 WARM 119 0.122 88.8 7.4% 10.3%vs RHP 399 5.3% 0.0% 9.9% 23

9 Alex Freeland 44 D — COOL 137 0.094 88.7 7.2% 9.7%vs RHP 373 2.7% 0.0% 12.3% 1

vs Eric Lauer · LHP 2.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.62 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kyle Schwarber ✶ 82 A +1000 COOL 1 0.307 93.5 14.1% 44.8%vs LHP 403 25.8% 22.2% 45.9% 18

2 Bryce Harper 67 C+ +390 COOL 13 0.237 90.1 10.8% 10.3%vs LHP 400 19.8% 11.1% 18.3% 25

3 Brandon Marsh 60 C+ +525 COOL 26 0.185 89.7 9.8% 16.7%vs LHP 393 14.1% 11.1% 15.6% 23

4 Trea Turner 57 C +475 HOT 43 0.146 88.8 8.4% 9.4%vs LHP 391 13.8% 37.5% 17.0% 23

5 Alec Bohm 52 C +525 WARM 75 0.139 90.4 7.4% 15.6%vs LHP 394 11.8% 11.1% 10.5% 27

6 Bryson Stott 51 C +750 COOL 80 0.145 89.1 8.5% 8.3%vs LHP 393 7.7% 0.0% 10.8% 25

7 J.T. Realmuto 44 D +500 COOL 132 0.129 — 7.0% 5.0%vs LHP — 0.0% 0.0% 8.4% 22

8 Justin Crawford 39 D — COOL 191 0.091 86.6 3.1% 4.2% 382 2.9% 0.0% 9.1% 14

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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