TheHomeRuns.org — ATH @ AZ

Suppressed air · 0.94×

ATH @ AZ

Chase Field · 3:40p · 14 ranked batters

Park 0.85× Wind 3 mph out 85°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+1 ↑

12:40p

+3 ↑

1:40p

+3 ↑

2:40p

+3 ↑

3:40p

+3 ↑

4:40p

the 1:40p window peaks +3

Best of game Tyler Soderstrom conv 34 · vs Kelly ⟷ Nolan Arenado conv 25 · vs Jump → edge: Tyler Soderstrom

ATTACK Merrill Kelly RHP · AZ

leak 95

2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · leakiest side of this game

1 Tyler Soderstrom +525 C ●●●●●

2 Shea Langeliers +400 C+ ●●●●○

3 Carlos Cortes +750 D ●●●○○

FADE Gage Jump LHP · ATH

leak 18

0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · stingy — thin edge

1 Nolan Arenado +575 D ●●●●○

2 Ketel Marte +390 D ●●○○○

3 Corbin Carroll +425 D ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Tyler Soderstrom: 10.7% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 42.9% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· ATH Tyler Soderstrom ✶ vs Kelly Edge +525 0.238 · 90.2 · 11.6% 42.9% 25.6% F B O C 59

· ATH Shea Langeliers HOT vs Kelly +400 0.236 · 91.9 · 14.0% 22.2% 26.3% F B O C+ 62

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· AZ Nolan Arenado HOT vs Jump Edge +575 0.185 · 85.5 · 6.6% 33.3% 16.6% F B O D 40

· ATH Carlos Cortes COOL vs Kelly Edge +750 0.160 · 90.0 · 10.0% 20.0% 16.1% F B O D 45

· ATH Jacob Wilson vs Kelly +850 0.120 · 84.1 · 5.5% 22.2% 9.3% F B O D 35

· AZ Ketel Marte COOL vs Jump Edge +390 0.202 · 91.2 · 8.0% 11.1% 12.4% F B O D 42

· AZ Corbin Carroll COOL vs Jump +425 0.226 · 91.3 · 8.5% 11.1% 11.3% F B O D 44

· AZ Geraldo Perdomo COOL vs Jump Edge +850 0.117 · 87.0 · 4.3% 11.1% 5.6% F B O D 26

· AZ Ildemaro Vargas vs Jump Edge +950 0.150 · 87.5 · 4.6% 0.0% 8.7% F B O D 29

· ATH Lawrence Butler vs Kelly Edge +750 0.104 · 89.1 · 8.6% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 36

· AZ Gabriel Moreno COOL vs Jump Edge +700 0.155 · 89.2 · 6.6% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 32

· ATH Jeff Mcneil COOL vs Kelly Edge +950 0.072 · 86.4 · 3.2% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 26

· ATH Henry Bolte COOL vs Kelly +950 0.089 · 89.9 · 8.9% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 36

· AZ Adrian Del Castillo COOL vs Jump — 0.130 · 88.9 · 6.3% 0.0% 6.0% F B O D 31

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 51.6% ← leak OFF 25.9% BRK 22.6% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Shea Langeliers R

17.4% 4.8% 17.0% 15.3% C+ 62 +400

Tyler Soderstrom L Edge

9.9% 0.0% 19.3% 10.7% C 59 +525

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

124

Carlos Cortes L Edge

8.0% 9.8% 4.4% 7.5% D 45 +750

210

Lawrence Butler L Edge

6.5% 4.3% 8.8% 6.3% D 36 +750

215

Henry Bolte R

6.7% 5.6% 8.1% 6.9% D 36 +950

219

Jacob Wilson R

3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% D 35 +850

256

Jeff Mcneil L Edge

0.0% 1.9% 2.0% 0.8% D 26 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.6% usage) carries Kelly's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 48.6% ← leak BRK 42.8% OFF 7.5% Overall Score

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

139

Corbin Carroll L

10.7% 15.7% 7.5% 11.6% D 44 +425

160

Ketel Marte S Edge

14.7% 8.4% 3.9% 10.7% D 42 +390

178

Nolan Arenado R Edge

10.2% 2.4% 3.8% 7.0% D 40 +575

240

Gabriel Moreno R Edge

7.3% 7.9% 10.7% 7.9% D 32 +700

244

Adrian Del Castillo L

10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 6.5% D 31 —

248

Ildemaro Vargas S Edge

4.6% 1.7% 1.8% 3.4% D 29 +950

258

Geraldo Perdomo S Edge

3.9% 0.0% 2.8% 3.0% D 26 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (48.6% usage) carries Jump's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Langeliers Soderstrom Cortes Wilson Arenado

Legend

attack side — vs Kelly fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Tyler Soderstrom +525 · 59

Shea Langeliers +400 · 62

Stadium conditions

Chase Field

First pitch 12:40p · roof retractable

Park 0.85× Wind 3 mph out 85°F retractable

↑

4 mph · out

97°F

12:40p

↑

5 mph · out

100°F

1:40p · peak

↑

5 mph · out

102°F

2:40p

↑

5 mph · out

102°F

3:40p

↑

4 mph · out

103°F

4:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 85°F, wind 3 mph NNE (out) — modifier: +1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Merrill Kelly · RHP 2.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.31 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Shea Langeliers 62 C+ +400 HOT 19 0.236 91.9 14.0% 22.0%vs RHP 416 20.0% 22.2% 26.3% 16

2 Tyler Soderstrom ✶ 59 C +525 WARM 29 0.238 90.2 11.6% 22.0%vs RHP 403 16.5% 42.9% 25.6% 21

3 Carlos Cortes 45 D +750 COOL 124 0.160 90.0 10.0% 16.7%vs RHP 403 5.8% 20.0% 16.1% 12

4 Lawrence Butler 36 D +750 WARM 210 0.104 89.1 8.6% 21.4%vs RHP 402 3.7% 0.0% 8.3% 17

5 Henry Bolte 36 D +950 COOL 215 0.089 89.9 8.9% 0.0%vs RHP 422 10.0% 0.0% 6.1% 17

6 Jacob Wilson 35 D +850 WARM 219 0.120 84.1 5.5% 13.8%vs RHP 385 7.0% 22.2% 9.3% 34

7 Jeff Mcneil 26 D +950 COOL 256 0.072 86.4 3.2% 7.3%vs RHP 373 3.8% 0.0% 6.8% 14

vs Gage Jump · LHP 0.70 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.39 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Corbin Carroll 44 D +425 COOL 139 0.226 91.3 8.5% 13.6%vs LHP 403 13.8% 11.1% 11.3% 19

2 Ketel Marte 42 D +390 COOL 160 0.202 91.2 8.0% 34.8%vs LHP 412 15.9% 11.1% 12.4% 29

3 Nolan Arenado 40 D +575 HOT 178 0.185 85.5 6.6% 21.1%vs LHP 391 13.0% 33.3% 16.6% 23

4 Gabriel Moreno 32 D +700 COOL 240 0.155 89.2 6.6% 15.4%vs LHP 395 7.3% 0.0% 7.7% 28

5 Adrian Del Castillo 31 D — COOL 244 0.130 88.9 6.3% 0.0%vs LHP 400 8.3% 0.0% 6.0% 3

6 Ildemaro Vargas 29 D +950 WARM 248 0.150 87.5 4.6% 29.4%vs LHP 399 5.6% 0.0% 8.7% 18

7 Geraldo Perdomo 26 D +850 COOL 258 0.117 87.0 4.3% 5.6%vs LHP 386 7.1% 11.1% 5.6% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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