TheHomeRuns.org — WSH @ COL

Coors Field is live · 1.20×

WSH @ COL

Coors Field · 3:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.20× Wind 1 mph slight_out 69°F Roof open

Hourly window

+2 ↑

1:10p

+1 ↑

2:10p

+0 ↑

3:10p

+0 ↑

4:10p

+0 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +2

Best of game Willi Castro conv 29 · vs Cavalli ⟷ James Wood conv 34 · vs Hughes → edge: James Wood

ATTACK Cade Cavalli RHP · WSH

leak 11

0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willi Castro — D ●●●●●

2 Hunter Goodman +235 B ●●●●○

3 Kyle Karros +625 C ●●●●○

FADE Gabriel Hughes RHP · CIN

leak 3

0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.48 · stingy — thin edge

1 James Wood +205 B ●●●●●

2 Cj Abrams +320 C ●●●●●

3 Curtis Mead +500 C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is James Wood: Match 29.5% · 14D pace 37.5% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· — James Wood ✶ COOL vs Hughes Edge +205 0.272 · 95.1 · 11.2% 37.5% 29.5% F B O B 70

· — Cj Abrams vs Hughes Edge +320 0.239 · 89.9 · 7.7% 33.3% 26.5% F B O C 58

· COL Hunter Goodman vs Cavalli +235 0.302 · 91.1 · 11.0% 12.5% 36.0% F B O B 70

· COL Kyle Karros vs Cavalli +625 0.172 · 89.7 · 7.8% 25.0% 20.5% F B O C 51

· — Curtis Mead vs Hughes +500 0.252 · 88.1 · 7.9% 14.3% 26.9% F B O C 59

Below the fade line · 12 long shots

· COL Willi Castro HOT vs Cavalli Edge — 0.129 · 88.3 · 7.1% 42.9% 16.1% F B O D 47

· COL Edouard Julien vs Cavalli Edge +700 0.109 · 91.1 · 7.1% 16.7% 16.1% F B O D 43

· — Jacob Young vs Hughes +700 0.150 · 88.7 · 6.3% 20.0% 11.6% F B O D 45

· — Keibert Ruiz vs Hughes Edge +500 0.184 · 89.3 · 5.6% 16.7% 13.4% F B O D 47

· — Daylen Lile HOT vs Hughes Edge +425 0.165 · 88.1 · 6.7% 14.3% 8.8% F B O D 46

· COL Jake Mccarthy COOL vs Cavalli Edge +750 0.201 · 85.1 · 6.3% 0.0% 15.5% F B O D 48

· COL Tj Rumfield COOL vs Cavalli Edge +700 0.181 · 83.9 · 6.2% 0.0% 14.0% F B O D 45

· COL Ezequiel Tovar vs Cavalli +700 0.138 · 87.2 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.2% F B O D 42

· COL Troy Johnston vs Cavalli Edge +750 0.135 · 89.8 · 3.9% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 37

· COL Tyler Freeman vs Cavalli — 0.074 · 88.0 · 3.2% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 32

· — Jorbit Vivas COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.096 · 83.2 · 4.6% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 35

· — Nasim Nunez COOL vs Hughes Edge — 0.045 · 84.8 · 1.7% 0.0% 5.6% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.8% ← leak BRK 38.2% OFF 7.9% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Hunter Goodman R

18.9% 17.5% 7.4% 17.1% B 70 +235

Neutral · 1

Kyle Karros R

8.3% 5.1% 14.3% 8.0% C 51 +625

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

Jake Mccarthy L Edge

6.2% 1.5% 10.3% 5.5% D 48 +750

108

Willi Castro S Edge

7.2% 6.8% 6.7% 7.0% D 47 —

122

Tj Rumfield L Edge

6.7% 2.2% 6.0% 5.3% D 45 +700

149

Edouard Julien L Edge

6.3% 11.8% 6.5% 7.5% D 43 +700

162

Ezequiel Tovar R

7.5% 8.5% 4.5% 7.6% D 42 +700

202

Troy Johnston L Edge

2.7% 3.9% 0.0% 2.5% D 37 +750

242

Tyler Freeman R

2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.5% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.8% usage) carries Cavalli's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.5% BRK 28.0% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

James Wood L Edge

22.4% 24.3% 22.0% B 70 +205

Neutral · 2

Curtis Mead R

13.5% 10.2% 11.1% C 59 +500

Cj Abrams L Edge

12.0% 7.1% 9.9% C 58 +320

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

109

Keibert Ruiz S Edge

8.2% 1.9% 5.3% D 47 +500

120

Daylen Lile L Edge

7.9% 10.8% 8.1% D 46 +425

128

Jacob Young R

8.1% 4.6% 6.6% D 45 +700

221

Jorbit Vivas L Edge

3.1% 5.0% 3.7% D 35 —

255

Nasim Nunez S Edge

0.8% 0.0% 0.5% D 26 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Hughes's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Goodman Karros Castro Julien Wood Mead Abrams Ruiz Young

Legend

attack side — vs Cavalli fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

James Wood +205 · 70

Cj Abrams +320 · 58

Kyle Karros +625 · 51

Stadium conditions

Coors Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 1.20× Wind 1 mph slight_out 69°F open

↑

8 mph · in

87°F

1:10p · peak

↑

9 mph · in

92°F

2:10p

↑

10 mph · in

95°F

3:10p

↑

9 mph · in

92°F

4:10p

↑

8 mph · in

90°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.20× 69°F, wind 1 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Cade Cavalli · RHP 0.75 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Hunter Goodman 70 B +235 WARM 6 0.302 91.1 11.0% 42.6%vs RHP 412 25.0% 12.5% 36.0% 16

2 Kyle Karros 51 C +625 WARM 79 0.172 89.7 7.8% 24.2%vs RHP 417 11.5% 25.0% 20.5% 25

3 Jake Mccarthy 48 D +750 COOL 98 0.201 85.1 6.3% 17.8%vs RHP 419 14.3% 0.0% 15.5% 29

4 Willi Castro 47 D — HOT 108 0.129 88.3 7.1% 13.5%vs RHP 417 9.3% 42.9% 16.1% 16

5 Tj Rumfield 45 D +700 COOL 122 0.181 83.9 6.2% 17.9%vs RHP 410 7.1% 0.0% 14.0% 25

6 Edouard Julien 43 D +700 WARM 149 0.109 91.1 7.1% 13.3%vs RHP 400 3.8% 16.7% 16.1% 11

7 Ezequiel Tovar 42 D +700 WARM 162 0.138 87.2 6.8% 16.4%vs RHP 410 7.8% 0.0% 9.2% 21

8 Troy Johnston 37 D +750 WARM 202 0.135 89.8 3.9% 7.7%vs RHP 415 1.3% 0.0% 9.0% 16

9 Tyler Freeman 32 D — WARM 242 0.074 88.0 3.2% 3.9%vs RHP 369 2.2% 0.0% 7.2% 22

vs Gabriel Hughes · RHP 0.00 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.48 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 James Wood ✶ 70 B +205 COOL 7 0.272 95.1 11.2% 38.5%vs RHP 412 29.3% 37.5% 29.5% 19

2 Curtis Mead 59 C +500 · 28 0.252 88.1 7.9% 28.6%vs RHP 400 20.7% 14.3% 26.9% 22

3 Cj Abrams 58 C +320 WARM 32 0.239 89.9 7.7% 29.2%vs RHP 394 33.3% 33.3% 26.5% 25

4 Keibert Ruiz 47 D +500 WARM 109 0.184 89.3 5.6% 8.5%vs RHP 377 12.2% 16.7% 13.4% 14

5 Daylen Lile 46 D +425 HOT 120 0.165 88.1 6.7% 11.8%vs RHP 403 9.0% 14.3% 8.8% 21

6 Jacob Young 45 D +700 WARM 128 0.150 88.7 6.3% 17.5%vs RHP 396 9.0% 20.0% 11.6% 15

7 Jorbit Vivas 35 D — COOL 221 0.096 83.2 4.6% 9.7%vs RHP 392 3.7% 0.0% 6.8% 13

8 Nasim Nunez 26 D — COOL 255 0.045 84.8 1.7% 0.0%vs RHP 372 0.0% 0.0% 5.6% 19

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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