TheHomeRuns.org — MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field is live · 1.48×

MIN @ CLE

Progressive Field · 6:40p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph out 62°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

6:40p

+0 ↑

7:40p

-3 ↑

8:40p

-4 ↑

9:40p

-4 ↑

10:40p

best window is early — 6:40p at +1

Best of game Royce Lewis conv 23 · vs Cecconi ⟷ Rhys Hoskins conv 29 · vs Ober → edge: Byron Buxton

ATTACK Slade Cecconi RHP · CLE

leak 91

1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · leakiest side of this game

1 Royce Lewis +475 C ●●●●○

2 Kody Clemens +400 C+ ●●●○○

3 Byron Buxton +320 C+ ●●○○○

FADE Bailey Ober RHP · MIN

leak 48

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Rhys Hoskins — C ●●●●○

2 Travis Bazzana +425 C ●●●●○

3 Brayan Rocchio +750 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Byron Buxton: 19.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· CLE Rhys Hoskins HOT vs Ober — 0.205 · 88.9 · 10.9% 33.3% 24.9% F B O C 59

· CLE Travis Bazzana vs Ober Edge +425 0.193 · 88.3 · 6.9% 30.0% 25.1% F B O C 54

· MIN Royce Lewis vs Cecconi +475 0.172 · 89.5 · 10.1% 25.0% 21.7% F B O C 54

· MIN Kody Clemens vs Cecconi Edge +400 0.252 · 92.6 · 10.1% 11.1% 27.7% F B O C+ 62

· MIN Byron Buxton ✶ COOL vs Cecconi +320 0.314 · 90.7 · 12.1% 0.0% 26.3% F B O C+ 68

· CLE Chase Delauter HOT vs Ober Edge +475 0.189 · 91.0 · 7.9% 0.0% 25.2% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CLE Brayan Rocchio HOT vs Ober Edge +750 0.138 · 86.6 · 5.1% 30.0% 16.5% F B O D 44

· MIN Trevor Larnach vs Cecconi Edge +700 0.162 · 87.1 · 7.5% 12.5% 9.7% F B O D 45

· MIN Brooks Lee COOL vs Cecconi Edge +700 0.178 · 88.1 · 5.4% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 45

· MIN Josh Bell COOL vs Cecconi Edge +500 0.172 · 89.9 · 9.0% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 48

· CLE Kyle Manzardo vs Ober Edge +370 0.147 · 89.3 · 10.1% 0.0% 11.1% F B O D 48

· CLE Daniel Schneemann vs Ober Edge — 0.126 · 88.1 · 8.5% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 44

· MIN Victor Caratini COOL vs Cecconi Edge — 0.138 · 89.5 · 7.6% 0.0% 8.9% F B O D 40

· MIN Luke Keaschall COOL vs Cecconi +950 0.095 · 84.3 · 4.9% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 34

· MIN Austin Martin COOL vs Cecconi — 0.074 · 87.0 · 4.1% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 32

· CLE Steven Kwan COOL vs Ober Edge +850 0.056 · 83.1 · 1.9% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 72.2% ← leak BRK 25.7% OFF 1.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Byron Buxton R

21.3% 17.2% 14.8% 19.4% C+ 68 +320

Kody Clemens L Edge

10.5% 20.3% 12.2% 13.2% C+ 62 +400

Royce Lewis R

15.1% 11.3% 9.1% 13.3% C 54 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

104

Josh Bell S Edge

10.0% 14.8% 6.1% 10.1% D 48 +500

129

Brooks Lee S Edge

7.0% 1.2% 1.3% 4.0% D 45 +700

131

Trevor Larnach L Edge

8.5% 8.3% 3.1% 7.7% D 45 +700

177

Victor Caratini S Edge

6.8% 14.3% 6.5% 7.9% D 40 —

225

Luke Keaschall R

3.7% 3.8% 0.0% 3.3% D 34 +950

239

Austin Martin R

2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 2.1% D 32 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (72.2% usage) carries Cecconi's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

OFF 36.0% FB 35.3% BRK 28.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Rhys Hoskins R

16.7% 9.1% 14.3% 11.0% C 59 —

Travis Bazzana L Edge

4.3% 5.7% 4.3% 5.2% C 54 +425

Chase Delauter L Edge

1.9% 10.8% 6.0% 7.8% C 50 +475

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

105

Kyle Manzardo L Edge

8.1% 12.4% 10.9% 11.2% D 48 +370

134

Brayan Rocchio S Edge

1.3% 3.6% 3.9% 3.1% D 44 +750

147

Daniel Schneemann L Edge

0.0% 12.4% 5.8% 8.2% D 44 —

252

Steven Kwan L Edge

0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.4% D 27 +850

Read the columns: no single family leads Ober's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 6 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Buxton Clemens Lewis Hoskins Bazzana Rocchio

Legend

attack side — vs Cecconi fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Rhys Hoskins — · 59

Travis Bazzana +425 · 54

Royce Lewis +475 · 54

Stadium conditions

Progressive Field

First pitch 6:40p · roof open

Park 1.05× Wind 14 mph out 62°F open

↑

6 mph · cross

70°F

6:40p · peak

↑

6 mph · cross

69°F

7:40p

-3

↑

6 mph · cross

67°F

8:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

64°F

9:40p

-4

↑

5 mph · in

62°F

10:40p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.48× 62°F, wind 14 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +4. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Slade Cecconi · RHP 1.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.10 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Byron Buxton ✶ 68 C+ +320 COOL 11 0.314 90.7 12.1% 32.3%vs RHP 402 30.7% 0.0% 26.3% 3

2 Kody Clemens 62 C+ +400 · 18 0.252 92.6 10.1% 21.2%vs RHP 389 19.3% 11.1% 27.7% 22

3 Royce Lewis 54 C +475 WARM 53 0.172 89.5 10.1% 19.1%vs RHP 396 17.2% 25.0% 21.7% 23

4 Josh Bell 48 D +500 COOL 104 0.172 89.9 9.0% 20.8%vs RHP 404 10.7% 0.0% 11.5% 27

5 Brooks Lee 45 D +700 COOL 129 0.178 88.1 5.4% 19.0%vs RHP 367 14.3% 0.0% 11.6% 27

6 Trevor Larnach 45 D +700 · 131 0.162 87.1 7.5% 12.2%vs RHP 399 7.4% 12.5% 9.7% 23

7 Victor Caratini 40 D — COOL 177 0.138 89.5 7.6% 18.2%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 17

8 Luke Keaschall 34 D +950 COOL 225 0.095 84.3 4.9% 7.5%vs RHP 370 4.8% 0.0% 8.3% 18

9 Austin Martin 32 D — COOL 239 0.074 87.0 4.1% 4.2%vs RHP 392 1.9% 0.0% 7.8% 8

vs Bailey Ober · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rhys Hoskins 59 C — HOT 30 0.205 88.9 10.9% 26.9%vs RHP 386 13.9% 33.3% 24.9% 12

2 Travis Bazzana 54 C +425 WARM 52 0.193 88.3 6.9% 21.9%vs RHP 396 14.3% 30.0% 25.1% 22

3 Chase Delauter 50 C +475 HOT 81 0.189 91.0 7.9% 24.4%vs RHP 393 0.0% 0.0% 25.2% 31

4 Kyle Manzardo 48 D +370 WARM 105 0.147 89.3 10.1% 20.4%vs RHP 389 10.2% 0.0% 11.1% 19

5 Brayan Rocchio 44 D +750 HOT 134 0.138 86.6 5.1% 15.2%vs RHP 386 8.6% 30.0% 16.5% 32

6 Daniel Schneemann 44 D — · 147 0.126 88.1 8.5% 11.9%vs RHP 398 6.5% 0.0% 8.9% 11

7 Steven Kwan 27 D +850 COOL 252 0.056 83.1 1.9% 1.9%vs RHP 381 1.1% 0.0% 7.4% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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