TheHomeRuns.org — PIT @ NYY

Playable air · 1.06×

PIT @ NYY

Yankee Stadium · 1:05p · 26 ranked batters

Park 1.06× Wind 9 mph cross 73°F Roof open

Hourly window

-5 ↑

1:05p

-6 ↑

2:05p

-6 ↑

3:05p

-5 ↑

4:05p

-4 ↑

5:05p

conditions build late — the 5:05p window peaks -4

Best of game Marcell Ozuna conv 15 · vs Cole ⟷ Marcell Ozuna conv 14 · vs Fried → edge: Ben Rice

ATTACK Gerrit Cole RHP · NYY

leak 89

1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · leakiest side of this game

1 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●○○○

2 Nick Gonzales +800 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +425 C ●●○○○

FADE Max Fried LHP · NYY

leak 3

0.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.18 · stingy — thin edge

1 Marcell Ozuna — D ●●○○○

2 Nick Gonzales +800 D ●●○○○

3 Bryan Reynolds +425 D ●●○○○

FADE Mitch Keller RHP · PIT

leak 89

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +220 B ●●●●○

2 Trent Grisham +280 C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells +390 D ●●●○○

FADE Bubba Chandler RHP · PIT

leak 84

0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · stingy — thin edge

1 Ben Rice +220 B ●●●●○

2 Trent Grisham +280 C ●●●●○

3 Austin Wells +390 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ben Rice: Match 36.0% · 14D pace 20.0% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Keller Edge +220 0.314 · 92.3 · 10.7% 20.0% 36.0% F B O B 71

· NYY Ben Rice ✶ vs Chandler Edge +220 0.314 · 92.3 · 10.2% 20.0% 34.8% F B O B 71

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Keller Edge +280 0.182 · 91.3 · 9.2% 33.3% 18.9% F B O C 54

· NYY Trent Grisham vs Chandler Edge +280 0.182 · 91.3 · 8.7% 33.3% 18.3% F B O C 54

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Keller +425 0.223 · 86.5 · 9.2% 16.7% 18.9% F B O C 56

· NYY Paul Goldschmidt COOL vs Chandler +425 0.223 · 86.5 · 8.7% 16.7% 18.5% F B O C 55

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Cole Edge +425 0.190 · 90.9 · 9.8% 9.1% 15.7% F B O C 53

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Cole Edge +305 0.229 · 91.0 · 10.5% 0.0% 18.0% F B O C 57

Below the fade line · 18 long shots

· NYY Austin Wells vs Keller Edge +390 0.101 · 88.8 · 6.9% 25.0% 15.1% F B O D 43

· NYY Austin Wells vs Chandler Edge +390 0.101 · 88.8 · 6.5% 25.0% 14.6% F B O D 43

· PIT Marcell Ozuna vs Cole — 0.125 · 89.5 · 8.8% 16.7% 12.8% F B O D 45

· PIT Marcell Ozuna vs Fried Edge — 0.125 · 89.5 · 5.2% 16.7% 11.9% F B O D 38

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Cole +800 0.097 · 85.8 · 5.0% 18.2% 7.9% F B O D 36

· PIT Nick Gonzales COOL vs Fried Edge +800 0.097 · 85.8 · 3.0% 18.2% 5.9% F B O D 31

· PIT Bryan Reynolds vs Fried Edge +425 0.190 · 90.9 · 5.8% 9.1% 13.0% F B O D 45

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Cole Edge +1000 0.071 · 84.7 · 3.7% 11.1% 8.6% F B O D 32

· PIT Jake Mangum HOT vs Fried Edge +1000 0.071 · 84.7 · 2.2% 11.1% 5.4% F B O D 27

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Keller Edge +370 0.165 · 91.0 · 9.1% 0.0% 16.2% F B O D 49

· NYY Ryan Mcmahon vs Chandler Edge +370 0.165 · 91.0 · 8.6% 0.0% 15.6% F B O D 49

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Cole Edge +425 0.185 · 89.8 · 8.4% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 49

· PIT Brandon Lowe COOL vs Fried +305 0.229 · 91.0 · 6.2% 0.0% 11.5% F B O D 48

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Keller Edge +370 0.156 · 89.1 · 6.9% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· NYY Cody Bellinger COOL vs Chandler Edge +370 0.156 · 89.1 · 6.5% 0.0% 9.9% F B O D 44

· PIT Ryan O'Hearn vs Fried +425 0.185 · 89.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 9.4% F B O D 41

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Keller +750 0.140 · 83.8 · 5.3% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 37

· NYY Jose Caballero COOL vs Chandler +750 0.140 · 83.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 8.1% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 52.1% BRK 33.1% OFF 14.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Brandon Lowe L Edge

16.5% 6.7% 12.0% 12.4% C 57 +305

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.8% 14.3% 5.3% 10.5% C 53 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan O'Hearn L Edge

9.6% 7.1% 4.5% 8.4% D 49 +425

127

Marcell Ozuna R

8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 8.3% D 45 —

213

Nick Gonzales R

1.7% 5.8% 0.0% 2.8% D 36 +800

237

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 32 +1000

Read the columns: no single family leads Cole's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 61.3% ← leak BRK 24.0% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

103

Brandon Lowe L

16.5% 6.7% 12.0% 12.4% D 48 +305

126

Bryan Reynolds S Edge

10.8% 14.3% 5.3% 10.5% D 45 +425

171

Ryan O'Hearn L

9.6% 7.1% 4.5% 8.4% D 41 +425

196

Marcell Ozuna R Edge

8.3% 11.1% 0.0% 8.3% D 38 —

245

Nick Gonzales R Edge

1.7% 5.8% 0.0% 2.8% D 31 +800

254

Jake Mangum S Edge

3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% D 27 +1000

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.3% usage) carries Fried's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 57.4% BRK 34.2% OFF 8.5% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.4% 11.2% 13.3% 15.4% B 71 +220

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.0% 5.4% 10.7% 11.5% C 56 +425

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.5% 10.3% 5.7% 11.1% C 54 +280

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.6% 5.1% 18.2% 12.1% D 49 +370

143

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 11.8% 8.9% 6.2% D 44 +370

150

Austin Wells L Edge

8.8% 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% D 43 +390

199

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 37 +750

Read the columns: no single family leads Keller's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.9% ← leak BRK 28.3% OFF 16.8% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Ben Rice L Edge

18.4% 11.2% 13.3% 15.4% B 71 +220

Neutral · 2

Paul Goldschmidt R

15.0% 5.4% 10.7% 11.5% C 55 +425

Trent Grisham L Edge

12.5% 10.3% 5.7% 11.1% C 54 +280

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Ryan Mcmahon L Edge

13.6% 5.1% 18.2% 12.1% D 49 +370

146

Cody Bellinger L Edge

3.3% 11.8% 8.9% 6.2% D 44 +370

151

Austin Wells L Edge

8.8% 6.7% 0.0% 6.9% D 43 +390

200

Jose Caballero R

— — — — D 37 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.9% usage) carries Chandler's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Ozuna Gonzales Ozuna Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells Rice Goldschmidt Grisham Wells

Legend

attack side — vs Cole fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Ben Rice +220 · 71

Trent Grisham +280 · 54

Stadium conditions

Yankee Stadium

First pitch 1:05p · roof open

Park 1.06× Wind 9 mph cross 73°F open

-5

↑

10 mph · in

76°F

1:05p

-6

↑

10 mph · in

77°F

2:05p

-6

↑

11 mph · in

78°F

3:05p

-5

↑

12 mph · cross

79°F

4:05p

-4

↑

13 mph · cross

79°F

5:05p · peak

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.06× 73°F, wind 9 mph SW (cross) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Gerrit Cole · RHP 1.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.40 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 57 C +305 COOL 41 0.229 91.0 10.5% 24.3%vs RHP 392 15.9% 0.0% 18.0% 19

2 Bryan Reynolds 53 C +425 WARM 62 0.190 90.9 9.8% 18.6%vs RHP 409 13.5% 9.1% 15.7% 18

3 Ryan O'Hearn 49 D +425 WARM 94 0.185 89.8 8.4% 21.8%vs RHP 384 14.1% 0.0% 14.2% 22

4 Marcell Ozuna 45 D — · 127 0.125 89.5 8.8% 14.3%vs RHP 404 9.5% 16.7% 12.8% 13

5 Nick Gonzales 36 D +800 COOL 213 0.097 85.8 5.0% 11.1%vs RHP 396 6.5% 18.2% 7.9% 25

6 Jake Mangum 32 D +1000 HOT 237 0.071 84.7 3.7% 10.0%vs RHP 408 3.6% 11.1% 8.6% 28

vs Max Fried · LHP 0.15 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -1.18 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Brandon Lowe 48 D +305 COOL 103 0.229 91.0 6.2% 16.7%vs LHP 392 15.9% 0.0% 11.5% 19

2 Bryan Reynolds 45 D +425 WARM 126 0.190 90.9 5.8% 26.1%vs LHP 409 13.5% 9.1% 13.0% 18

3 Ryan O'Hearn 41 D +425 WARM 171 0.185 89.8 5.0% 17.4%vs LHP 384 14.1% 0.0% 9.4% 22

4 Marcell Ozuna 38 D — · 196 0.125 89.5 5.2% 22.2%vs LHP 404 9.5% 16.7% 11.9% 13

5 Nick Gonzales 31 D +800 COOL 245 0.097 85.8 3.0% 4.8%vs LHP 396 6.5% 18.2% 5.9% 25

6 Jake Mangum 27 D +1000 HOT 254 0.071 84.7 2.2% 0.0%vs LHP 408 3.6% 11.1% 5.4% 28

vs Mitch Keller · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 71 B +220 WARM 3 0.314 92.3 10.7% 34.9%vs RHP 389 26.1% 20.0% 36.0% 25

2 Paul Goldschmidt 56 C +425 COOL 45 0.223 86.5 9.2% 23.3%vs RHP 391 17.5% 16.7% 18.9% 15

3 Trent Grisham 54 C +280 WARM 55 0.182 91.3 9.2% 17.0%vs RHP 390 12.2% 33.3% 18.9% 28

4 Ryan Mcmahon 49 D +370 WARM 88 0.165 91.0 9.1% 23.1%vs RHP 384 33.3% 0.0% 16.2% 16

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D +370 COOL 143 0.156 89.1 6.9% 10.4%vs RHP 379 9.7% 0.0% 10.2% 26

6 Austin Wells 43 D +390 WARM 150 0.101 88.8 6.9% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.1% 25.0% 15.1% 18

7 Jose Caballero 37 D +750 COOL 199 0.140 83.8 5.3% 18.2%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 24

vs Bubba Chandler · RHP 0.95 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.40 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ben Rice ✶ 71 B +220 WARM 4 0.314 92.3 10.2% 34.9%vs RHP 389 26.1% 20.0% 34.8% 25

2 Paul Goldschmidt 55 C +425 COOL 48 0.223 86.5 8.7% 23.3%vs RHP 391 17.5% 16.7% 18.5% 15

3 Trent Grisham 54 C +280 WARM 56 0.182 91.3 8.7% 17.0%vs RHP 390 12.2% 33.3% 18.3% 28

4 Ryan Mcmahon 49 D +370 WARM 92 0.165 91.0 8.6% 23.1%vs RHP 384 33.3% 0.0% 15.6% 16

5 Cody Bellinger 44 D +370 COOL 146 0.156 89.1 6.5% 10.4%vs RHP 379 9.7% 0.0% 9.9% 26

6 Austin Wells 43 D +390 WARM 151 0.101 88.8 6.5% 12.9%vs RHP 378 9.1% 25.0% 14.6% 18

7 Jose Caballero 37 D +750 COOL 200 0.140 83.8 5.0% 18.2%vs RHP 379 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 24

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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