TheHomeRuns.org — SD @ ATL

Truist Park is live · 1.14×

SD @ ATL

Truist Park · 7:15p · 13 ranked batters

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 74°F Roof open

Hourly window

+14 ↑

7:15p

+13 ↑

8:15p

+13 ↑

9:15p

+13 ↑

10:15p

+11 ↑

11:15p

best window is early — 7:15p at +14

Best of game Ty France conv 39 · vs Pérez ⟷ Matt Olson conv 28 · vs King → edge: Ty France

ATTACK Martín Pérez LHP · ATL

leak 81

1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · leakiest side of this game

1 Ty France +475 C+ ●●●●●

2 Manny Machado +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Jackson Merrill +500 C ●●○○○

FADE Michael King RHP · SD

leak 45

0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · stingy — thin edge

1 Matt Olson +305 B ●●●●○

2 Drake Baldwin +425 C+ ●●●●○

3 Mike Yastrzemski +575 D ●●●●○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Ty France: 11.3% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 44.4% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SD Ty France ✶ HOT vs Pérez Edge +475 0.258 · 92.2 · 9.1% 44.4% 34.5% F B O C+ 68

· ATL Matt Olson COOL vs King Edge +305 0.276 · 92.6 · 10.9% 22.2% 34.3% F B O B 71

· ATL Drake Baldwin vs King Edge +425 0.202 · 91.5 · 11.5% 22.2% 27.0% F B O C+ 63

· SD Manny Machado vs Pérez Edge +390 0.211 · 90.2 · 8.6% 22.2% 24.1% F B O C+ 61

· ATL Austin Riley vs King +425 0.160 · 90.4 · 9.9% 22.2% 20.0% F B O C 54

· SD Jackson Merrill vs Pérez +500 0.140 · 89.6 · 8.2% 11.1% 15.1% F B O C 50

· SD Gavin Sheets COOL vs Pérez — 0.201 · 88.1 · 7.1% 0.0% 16.8% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 6 long shots

· ATL Mike Yastrzemski HOT vs King Edge +575 0.156 · 90.4 · 7.4% 33.3% 13.5% F B O D 49

· ATL Ozzie Albies COOL vs King Edge +625 0.170 · 86.8 · 6.0% 11.1% 11.1% F B O D 48

· SD Xander Bogaerts vs Pérez Edge +625 0.106 · 88.0 · 6.5% 11.1% 8.3% F B O D 43

· ATL Mauricio Dubon COOL vs King +950 0.146 · 86.4 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 42

· SD Jake Cronenworth COOL vs Pérez — 0.081 · 87.4 · 6.4% 0.0% 9.6% F B O D 40

· ATL Dominic Smith vs King Edge +750 0.117 · 87.8 · 7.1% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 43

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 61.2% ← leak OFF 30.4% BRK 8.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Ty France R Edge

12.9% 8.0% 10.2% 11.3% C+ 68 +475

Manny Machado R Edge

13.0% 5.3% 7.7% 10.5% C+ 61 +390

Gavin Sheets L

9.9% 3.9% 4.7% 7.6% C 52 —

Jackson Merrill L

11.5% 6.6% 8.4% 9.5% C 50 +500

Long shots · 2 — below the fade line

155

Xander Bogaerts R Edge

8.0% 4.2% 2.9% 6.3% D 43 +625

183

Jake Cronenworth L

6.2% 4.3% 5.3% 5.7% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (61.2% usage) carries Pérez's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 6 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 47.9% ← leak OFF 27.4% BRK 24.7% Overall Score

Prime targets · 1

Matt Olson L Edge

17.2% 14.7% 9.8% 14.8% B 71 +305

Neutral · 2

Drake Baldwin L Edge

15.7% 3.1% 22.8% 15.7% C+ 63 +425

Austin Riley R

13.0% 3.2% 13.5% 12.0% C 54 +425

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Mike Yastrzemski L Edge

7.0% 10.3% 4.8% 7.0% D 49 +575

106

Ozzie Albies S Edge

5.7% 3.2% 1.1% 3.8% D 48 +625

153

Dominic Smith L Edge

6.3% 2.7% 6.5% 5.7% D 43 +750

157

Mauricio Dubon R

3.5% 3.8% 6.8% 4.5% D 42 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (47.9% usage) carries King's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → France Machado Merrill Olson Baldwin Riley Yastrzemski

Legend

attack side — vs Pérez fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 5

Ty France +475 · 68

Matt Olson +305 · 71

Drake Baldwin +425 · 63

Manny Machado +390 · 61

Austin Riley +425 · 54

Stadium conditions

Truist Park

First pitch 7:15p · roof open

Park 1.14× Wind 5 mph out 74°F open

+14

↑

9 mph · out

81°F

7:15p · peak

+13

↑

8 mph · out

79°F

8:15p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

78°F

9:15p

+13

↑

8 mph · out

77°F

10:15p

+11

↑

7 mph · out

76°F

11:15p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Boost · Combined 1.14× 74°F, wind 5 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Martín Pérez · LHP 1.11 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.39 · 6 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Ty France ✶ 68 C+ +475 HOT 10 0.258 92.2 9.1% 27.3%vs LHP 394 20.5% 44.4% 34.5% 25

2 Manny Machado 61 C+ +390 · 25 0.211 90.2 8.6% 19.1%vs LHP 395 20.2% 22.2% 24.1% 27

3 Gavin Sheets 52 C — COOL 70 0.201 88.1 7.1% 20.3% 397 11.6% 0.0% 16.8% 19

4 Jackson Merrill 50 C +500 · 85 0.140 89.6 8.2% 16.7%vs LHP 407 11.8% 11.1% 15.1% 30

5 Xander Bogaerts 43 D +625 · 155 0.106 88.0 6.5% 6.2%vs LHP 396 8.7% 11.1% 8.3% 27

6 Jake Cronenworth 40 D — COOL 183 0.081 87.4 6.4% 10.0% 389 2.0% 0.0% 9.6% 24

vs Michael King · RHP 0.88 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.21 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Matt Olson 71 B +305 COOL 5 0.276 92.6 10.9% 33.9%vs RHP 408 21.2% 22.2% 34.3% 20

2 Drake Baldwin 63 C+ +425 · 17 0.202 91.5 11.5% 28.9%vs RHP 405 19.2% 22.2% 27.0% 31

3 Austin Riley 54 C +425 WARM 54 0.160 90.4 9.9% 17.7%vs RHP 405 9.2% 22.2% 20.0% 22

4 Mike Yastrzemski 49 D +575 HOT 95 0.156 90.4 7.4% 17.0%vs RHP 387 8.2% 33.3% 13.5% 7

5 Ozzie Albies 48 D +625 COOL 106 0.170 86.8 6.0% 12.5%vs RHP 384 13.1% 11.1% 11.1% 27

6 Dominic Smith 43 D +750 WARM 153 0.117 87.8 7.1% 13.0%vs RHP 390 6.7% 0.0% 8.6% 11

7 Mauricio Dubon 42 D +950 COOL 157 0.146 86.4 6.3% 13.6%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 10.2% 30

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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