TheHomeRuns.org — NYM @ MIL

Suppressed air · 0.94×

NYM @ MIL

American Family Field · 2:10p · 15 ranked batters

Park 1.04× Wind 2 mph in 56°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

+7 ↑

1:10p

+6 ↑

2:10p

+7 ↑

3:10p

+6 ↑

4:10p

+3 ↑

5:10p

best window is early — 1:10p at +7

Best of game Jake Bauers conv 33 · vs Scott ⟷ Francisco Lindor conv 21 · vs Henderson → edge: Jake Bauers

ATTACK Christian Scott RHP · NYM

leak 89

1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · leakiest side of this game

1 Jake Bauers +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Brice Turang +575 C ●●●●○

3 Joey Ortiz +850 D ●●○○○

FADE Logan Henderson RHP · MIL

leak 57

0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · stingy — thin edge

1 Francisco Lindor +350 D ●●●○○

2 Brett Baty +500 D ●●●○○

3 Juan Soto +225 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Jake Bauers: 14.5% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 30.0% · platoon edge · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· MIL Jake Bauers ✶ HOT vs Scott Edge +400 0.258 · 92.5 · 10.1% 30.0% 35.5% F B O C+ 64

· MIL Brice Turang vs Scott Edge +575 0.196 · 90.7 · 7.9% 25.0% 25.9% F B O C 52

· NYM Juan Soto COOL vs Henderson Edge +225 0.254 · 92.5 · 10.9% 11.1% 18.4% F B O C 58

· MIL Jackson Chourio COOL vs Scott +370 0.209 · 92.2 · 9.8% 0.0% 12.2% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· NYM Francisco Lindor vs Henderson Edge +350 0.159 · 92.1 · 8.9% 25.0% 16.3% F B O D 46

· NYM Brett Baty vs Henderson Edge +500 0.097 · 89.4 · 8.3% 25.0% 12.9% F B O D 39

· MIL Joey Ortiz vs Scott +850 0.100 · 87.9 · 5.7% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 38

· NYM Francisco Alvarez COOL vs Henderson +425 0.181 · 90.1 · 11.5% 0.0% 22.3% F B O D 46

· MIL Garrett Mitchell COOL vs Scott Edge +400 0.180 · 92.7 · 10.1% 0.0% 14.2% F B O D 49

· NYM Marcus Semien COOL vs Henderson +625 0.124 · 86.1 · 8.0% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 39

· NYM A.J. Ewing COOL vs Henderson Edge +525 0.154 · — · 7.7% 0.0% 10.0% F B O D 36

· MIL Christian Yelich COOL vs Scott Edge +475 0.134 · 89.0 · 7.1% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 40

· MIL William Contreras vs Scott +500 0.143 · 90.2 · 7.5% 0.0% 8.4% F B O D 42

· NYM Carson Benge COOL vs Henderson Edge +500 0.131 · 89.2 · 7.9% 0.0% 8.0% F B O D 39

· NYM Bo Bichette COOL vs Henderson +525 0.119 · 89.8 · 7.5% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 37

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 63.2% ← leak OFF 33.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Juan Soto L Edge

18.2% 4.9% 14.2% C 58 +225

Long shots · 7 — below the fade line

112

Francisco Alvarez R

15.9% 16.7% 15.7% D 46 +425

115

Francisco Lindor S Edge

10.1% 8.8% 9.0% D 46 +350

188

Brett Baty L Edge

8.3% 2.4% 8.3% D 39 +500

189

Marcus Semien R

11.2% 9.5% 8.1% D 39 +625

192

Carson Benge L Edge

7.2% 6.5% 7.4% D 39 +500

205

Bo Bichette R

4.7% 0.0% 6.6% D 37 +525

206

A.J. Ewing L Edge

9.4% 0.0% 7.2% D 36 +525

Read the columns: the fastball family (63.2% usage) carries Henderson's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 68.5% ← leak BRK 27.6% OFF 3.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Jake Bauers L Edge

14.3% 14.0% 16.7% 14.5% C+ 64 +400

Brice Turang L Edge

9.8% 9.8% 2.2% 8.5% C 52 +575

Jackson Chourio R

13.2% 14.9% 3.8% 12.6% C 52 +370

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

Garrett Mitchell L Edge

16.0% 11.7% 5.0% 13.4% D 49 +400

163

William Contreras R

10.0% 7.7% 0.0% 8.5% D 42 +500

185

Christian Yelich L Edge

4.3% 9.8% 11.1% 6.5% D 40 +475

195

Joey Ortiz R

3.5% 6.6% 0.0% 4.2% D 38 +850

Read the columns: the fastball family (68.5% usage) carries Scott's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Soto Lindor Baty Bauers Turang Ortiz

Legend

attack side — vs Scott fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 2

Jake Bauers +400 · 64

Brice Turang +575 · 52

Stadium conditions

American Family Field

First pitch 1:10p · roof retractable

Park 1.04× Wind 2 mph in 56°F retractable

↑

7 mph · out

69°F

1:10p · peak

↑

6 mph · out

70°F

2:10p

↑

6 mph · out

70°F

3:10p

↑

5 mph · out

71°F

4:10p

↑

4 mph · slight_out

71°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.94× 56°F, wind 2 mph WSW (in) — modifier: -1. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Logan Henderson · RHP 0.79 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.45 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Juan Soto 58 C +225 COOL 37 0.254 92.5 10.9% 31.5%vs RHP 401 20.0% 11.1% 18.4% 21

2 Francisco Alvarez 46 D +425 COOL 112 0.181 90.1 11.5% 27.3%vs RHP 404 0.0% 0.0% 22.3% 16

3 Francisco Lindor 46 D +350 WARM 115 0.159 92.1 8.9% 16.1%vs RHP 399 10.3% 25.0% 16.3% 25

4 Brett Baty 39 D +500 · 188 0.097 89.4 8.3% 10.4%vs RHP 401 5.4% 25.0% 12.9% 24

5 Marcus Semien 39 D +625 COOL 189 0.124 86.1 8.0% 16.3%vs RHP 391 10.0% 0.0% 10.5% 4

6 Carson Benge 39 D +500 COOL 192 0.131 89.2 7.9% 13.6%vs RHP 399 9.4% 0.0% 8.0% 21

7 Bo Bichette 37 D +525 COOL 205 0.119 89.8 7.5% 9.8%vs RHP 385 9.4% 0.0% 7.7% 21

8 A.J. Ewing 36 D +525 COOL 206 0.154 — 7.7% 17.9%vs RHP — 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 25

vs Christian Scott · RHP 1.06 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.06 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Jake Bauers ✶ 64 C+ +400 HOT 15 0.258 92.5 10.1% 35.3%vs RHP 401 20.8% 30.0% 35.5% 13

2 Brice Turang 52 C +575 WARM 68 0.196 90.7 7.9% 25.9%vs RHP 406 11.5% 25.0% 25.9% 21

3 Jackson Chourio 52 C +370 COOL 74 0.209 92.2 9.8% 18.9%vs RHP 402 16.7% 0.0% 12.2% 20

4 Garrett Mitchell 49 D +400 COOL 93 0.180 92.7 10.1% 26.7%vs RHP 415 8.9% 0.0% 14.2% 25

5 William Contreras 42 D +500 WARM 163 0.143 90.2 7.5% 19.0%vs RHP 419 10.0% 0.0% 8.4% 22

6 Christian Yelich 40 D +475 COOL 185 0.134 89.0 7.1% 13.8%vs RHP 402 6.2% 0.0% 9.1% 20

7 Joey Ortiz 38 D +850 WARM 195 0.100 87.9 5.7% 13.3%vs RHP 395 6.2% 20.0% 12.0% 23

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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