TheHomeRuns.org — SF @ KC

Suppressed air · 0.71×

SF @ KC

Kauffman Stadium · 2:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph in 81°F Roof open

Hourly window

-7 ↑

1:10p

-7 ↑

2:10p

-7 ↑

3:10p

-7 ↑

4:10p

-7 ↑

5:10p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Lane Thomas conv 23 · vs Roupp ⟷ Willy Adames conv 31 · vs Lugo → edge: Willy Adames

ATTACK Landen Roupp RHP · SF

leak 66

0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · leakiest side of this game

1 Lane Thomas — D ●●●●○

2 Salvador Perez — D ●●●○○

3 Carter Jensen — D ●●○○○

FADE Seth Lugo RHP · KC

leak 41

1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willy Adames — C ●●●●●

2 Bryce Eldridge — C ●●●●○

3 Rafael Devers — C ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willy Adames: 9.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0% · suppressed air — pay the chalk or pass. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· SF Willy Adames ✶ COOL vs Lugo — 0.208 · 88.1 · 9.4% 40.0% 22.0% F B O C 52

· SF Bryce Eldridge vs Lugo Edge — 0.212 · 92.5 · 11.1% 30.0% 21.0% F B O C 54

· SF Rafael Devers COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.226 · 92.2 · 10.3% 20.0% 22.9% F B O C 54

· SF Casey Schmitt vs Lugo — 0.206 · 89.7 · 10.6% 20.0% 15.3% F B O C 51

Below the fade line · 13 long shots

· KC Lane Thomas HOT vs Roupp — 0.170 · 89.7 · 5.6% 30.0% 16.9% F B O D 40

· KC Salvador Perez vs Roupp — 0.162 · 89.0 · 6.6% 20.0% 14.8% F B O D 39

· SF Heliot Ramos vs Lugo — 0.192 · 92.4 · 12.0% 10.0% 11.7% F B O D 49

· KC Carter Jensen vs Roupp Edge — 0.183 · 90.8 · 6.6% 11.1% 9.4% F B O D 40

· KC Isaac Collins COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.118 · 88.5 · 5.1% 11.1% 5.9% F B O D 30

· KC Starling Marte COOL vs Roupp — 0.059 · 89.7 · 7.0% 0.0% 7.7% F B O D 29

· KC Michael Massey COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.158 · 90.1 · 5.3% 0.0% 7.4% F B O D 32

· SF Drew Cavanaugh vs Lugo Edge — 0.000 · 86.5 · 8.5% 0.0% 7.0% F B O D 33

· SF Drew Gilbert COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.124 · 85.6 · 4.1% 0.0% 6.8% F B O D 30

· KC Vinnie Pasquantino vs Roupp Edge — 0.114 · 88.7 · 5.7% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· KC Josh Rojas COOL vs Roupp Edge — 0.109 · 82.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 30

· SF Jung Hoo Lee COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.127 · 87.1 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.2% F B O D 30

· SF Luis Arraez COOL vs Lugo Edge — 0.125 · 87.0 · 2.2% 0.0% 5.7% F B O D 26

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 53.1% ← leak BRK 35.8% OFF 8.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Rafael Devers L Edge

14.3% 8.5% 9.6% 11.9% C 54 —

Bryce Eldridge L Edge

13.6% 6.7% 20.0% 13.3% C 54 —

Willy Adames R

8.5% 10.4% 13.6% 9.4% C 52 —

Casey Schmitt R

8.5% 18.2% 17.4% 12.0% C 51 —

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Heliot Ramos R

14.1% 16.7% 16.7% 15.3% D 49 —

240

Drew Cavanaugh L Edge

6.7% 11.1% 0.0% 7.7% D 33 —

254

Drew Gilbert L Edge

1.9% 2.4% 0.0% 1.7% D 30 —

257

Jung Hoo Lee L Edge

3.3% 2.0% 0.0% 2.5% D 30 —

271

Luis Arraez L Edge

0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 0.5% D 26 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (53.1% usage) carries Lugo's damage — FB is the leak. 6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.0% ← leak BRK 25.8% OFF 20.2% Overall Score

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

179

Lane Thomas R

8.3% 2.9% 5.6% 7.0% D 40 —

184

Carter Jensen L Edge

11.5% 8.0% 7.9% 9.6% D 40 —

188

Salvador Perez R

13.2% 6.1% 8.1% 9.7% D 39 —

245

Michael Massey L Edge

8.3% 4.3% 2.6% 6.3% D 32 —

255

Vinnie Pasquantino L Edge

7.9% 3.6% 10.7% 7.2% D 30 —

256

Josh Rojas L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 3.0% D 30 —

260

Isaac Collins S Edge

6.5% 7.7% 0.0% 5.7% D 30 —

262

Starling Marte R

12.5% 12.5% 5.6% 11.0% D 29 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (54.0% usage) carries Roupp's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Devers Eldridge Adames Schmitt Thomas Perez

Legend

attack side — vs Roupp fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Willy Adames — · 52

Bryce Eldridge — · 54

Rafael Devers — · 54

Stadium conditions

Kauffman Stadium

First pitch 1:10p · roof open

Park 0.89× Wind 10 mph in 81°F open

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

1:10p · peak

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

2:10p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

3:10p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

4:10p

-7

↑

9 mph · cross

69°F

5:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Suppress · Combined 0.71× 81°F, wind 10 mph NNE (in) — modifier: -2 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Seth Lugo · RHP 1.27 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.05 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Rafael Devers 54 C — COOL 45 0.226 92.2 10.3% 27.0%vs RHP 401 17.2% 20.0% 22.9% 24

2 Bryce Eldridge 54 C — WARM 46 0.212 92.5 11.1% 25.0%vs RHP 399 22.9% 30.0% 21.0% 21

3 Willy Adames ✶ 52 C — COOL 57 0.208 88.1 9.4% 22.7%vs RHP 388 16.5% 40.0% 22.0% 26

4 Casey Schmitt 51 C — · 70 0.206 89.7 10.6% 19.7%vs RHP 396 16.7% 20.0% 15.3% 33

5 Heliot Ramos 49 D — · 89 0.192 92.4 12.0% 20.6%vs RHP 407 12.5% 10.0% 11.7% 27

6 Drew Cavanaugh 33 D — WARM 240 0.000 86.5 8.5% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 7.0% 8

7 Drew Gilbert 30 D — COOL 254 0.124 85.6 4.1% 14.3%vs RHP 398 3.7% 0.0% 6.8% 28

8 Jung Hoo Lee 30 D — COOL 257 0.127 87.1 4.5% 8.0%vs RHP 378 4.4% 0.0% 6.2% 30

9 Luis Arraez 26 D — COOL 271 0.125 87.0 2.2% 3.5%vs RHP 367 3.0% 0.0% 5.7% 33

vs Landen Roupp · RHP 0.61 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.23 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Lane Thomas 40 D — HOT 179 0.170 89.7 5.6% 21.4%vs RHP 416 15.9% 30.0% 16.9% 28

2 Carter Jensen 40 D — WARM 184 0.183 90.8 6.6% 16.7%vs RHP 394 15.6% 11.1% 9.4% 24

3 Salvador Perez 39 D — · 188 0.162 89.0 6.6% 18.2%vs RHP 402 15.0% 20.0% 14.8% 25

4 Michael Massey 32 D — COOL 245 0.158 90.1 5.3% 9.5%vs RHP 398 6.2% 0.0% 7.4% 27

5 Vinnie Pasquantino 30 D — WARM 255 0.114 88.7 5.7% 12.0%vs RHP 395 8.5% 0.0% 6.3% 16

6 Josh Rojas 30 D — COOL 256 0.109 82.9 3.6% 11.1%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 14

7 Isaac Collins 30 D — COOL 260 0.118 88.5 5.1% 7.7%vs RHP 395 6.0% 11.1% 5.9% 23

8 Starling Marte 29 D — COOL 262 0.059 89.7 7.0% 5.9% 441 2.9% 0.0% 7.7% 6

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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