TheHomeRuns.org — CWS @ TEX

Neutral air · 1.03×

CWS @ TEX

Globe Life Field · 8:05p · 17 ranked batters

Park 0.93× Wind 13 mph in 103°F Roof retractable

Hourly window

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7:05p

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8:05p

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9:05p

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10:05p

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11:05p

conditions hold steady across the window · -7 FIT

Best of game Justin Foscue conv 30 · vs Kay ⟷ Sam Antonacci conv 15 · vs Alexander → edge: Justin Foscue

ATTACK Anthony Kay LHP · CWS

leak 91

1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · leakiest side of this game

1 Justin Foscue +850 C ●●●●●

2 Wyatt Langford +850 C ●●●●●

3 Jake Burger +625 C ●●●○○

FADE Tyler Alexander LHP · TEX

leak 13

0.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.74 · stingy — thin edge

1 Sam Antonacci — D ●●○○○

2 Colson Montgomery +370 C ●●○○○

3 Miguel Vargas +475 C ●●○○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Justin Foscue: 11.9% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 33.3% · platoon edge. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TEX Justin Foscue ✶ COOL vs Kay Edge +850 0.235 · 89.4 · 9.9% 33.3% 26.3% F B O C 54

· TEX Wyatt Langford vs Kay Edge +850 0.212 · 88.9 · 8.5% 33.3% 25.5% F B O C 54

· TEX Jake Burger vs Kay Edge +625 0.188 · 90.0 · 9.6% 20.0% 20.3% F B O C 52

· CWS Colson Montgomery COOL vs Alexander +370 0.243 · 89.2 · 8.3% 10.0% 17.2% F B O C 50

· CWS Miguel Vargas vs Alexander Edge +475 0.239 · 90.4 · 8.6% 10.0% 13.8% F B O C 50

· CWS Munetaka Murakami COOL vs Alexander +600 0.288 · 93.8 · 9.8% 0.0% 15.1% F B O C 52

Below the fade line · 11 long shots

· TEX Ezequiel Duran vs Kay Edge +950 0.166 · 88.4 · 7.4% 20.0% 18.5% F B O D 46

· TEX Brandon Nimmo vs Kay +700 0.162 · 92.4 · 10.3% 20.0% 13.7% F B O D 49

· CWS Sam Antonacci COOL vs Alexander — 0.135 · 87.5 · 5.7% 22.2% 8.0% F B O D 35

· CWS Tristan Peters HOT vs Alexander +1000 0.173 · 87.4 · 5.0% 14.3% 8.0% F B O D 36

· CWS Braden Montgomery vs Alexander Edge +850 0.175 · 89.4 · 4.5% 10.0% 6.6% F B O D 35

· TEX Elias Díaz COOL vs Kay Edge +750 0.185 · 86.3 · 7.1% 0.0% 15.7% F B O D 44

· CWS Andrew Benintendi COOL vs Alexander +750 0.183 · 89.1 · 6.8% 0.0% 9.1% F B O D 39

· CWS Edgar Quero vs Alexander — 0.044 · 90.9 · 3.6% 0.0% 7.5% F B O D 25

· TEX Nicky Lopez COOL vs Kay — 0.045 · 85.4 · — 0.0% 6.3% F B O D 21

· CWS Chase Meidroth COOL vs Alexander Edge — 0.112 · 87.8 · 4.5% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 28

· TEX Alejandro Osuna COOL vs Kay — 0.041 · 87.1 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.1% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 58.7% OFF 25.8% BRK 15.5% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Munetaka Murakami L

21.1% 22.2% 15.7% 19.3% C 52 +600

Colson Montgomery L

13.4% 14.7% 12.7% 13.4% C 50 +370

Miguel Vargas R Edge

16.9% 12.9% 11.5% 14.7% C 50 +475

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

192

Andrew Benintendi L

13.1% 6.2% 5.6% 9.6% D 39 +750

218

Tristan Peters L

7.1% 0.0% 4.0% 5.4% D 36 +1000

225

Sam Antonacci L

8.1% 0.0% 6.2% 6.4% D 35 —

228

Braden Montgomery S Edge

3.8% 3.8% 6.2% 4.3% D 35 +850

265

Chase Meidroth R Edge

4.4% 2.3% 5.8% 4.4% D 28 —

274

Edgar Quero

2.6% 3.8% 0.0% 2.4% D 25 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Alexander's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 58.8% ← leak BRK 26.8% OFF 14.3% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Justin Foscue R Edge

14.0% 9.7% 10.0% 11.9% C 54 +850

Wyatt Langford R Edge

6.2% 10.9% 14.3% 8.3% C 54 +850

Jake Burger R Edge

10.1% 11.7% 10.7% 10.7% C 52 +625

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

Brandon Nimmo L

10.1% 18.4% 15.0% 13.0% D 49 +700

109

Ezequiel Duran R Edge

8.9% 6.1% 0.0% 6.8% D 46 +950

127

Elias Díaz R Edge

5.4% 8.3% 5.6% 6.3% D 44 +750

268

Alejandro Osuna L

0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 0.7% D 27 —

279

Nicky Lopez L

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 21 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (58.8% usage) carries Kay's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Montgomery Antonacci Foscue Langford Burger Nimmo Duran

Legend

attack side — vs Kay fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 4

Justin Foscue +850 · 54

Wyatt Langford +850 · 54

Jake Burger +625 · 52

Ezequiel Duran +950 · 46

Stadium conditions

Globe Life Field

First pitch 7:05p · roof retractable

Park 0.93× Wind 13 mph in 103°F retractable

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10 mph · cross

82°F

7:05p · peak

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-7

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10 mph · cross

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arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.03× 103°F, wind 13 mph NE (in) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast). Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Tyler Alexander · LHP 0.42 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.74 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Munetaka Murakami 52 C +600 COOL 62 0.288 93.8 9.8% 30.8%vs LHP 409 15.2% 0.0% 15.1% 15

2 Colson Montgomery 50 C +370 COOL 80 0.243 89.2 8.3% 33.3%vs LHP 398 25.3% 10.0% 17.2% 18

3 Miguel Vargas 50 C +475 · 81 0.239 90.4 8.6% 29.0%vs LHP 389 20.5% 10.0% 13.8% 35

4 Andrew Benintendi 39 D +750 COOL 192 0.183 89.1 6.8% 12.8% 389 13.8% 0.0% 9.1% 21

5 Tristan Peters 36 D +1000 HOT 218 0.173 87.4 5.0% 8.0% 377 8.5% 14.3% 8.0% 24

6 Sam Antonacci 35 D — COOL 225 0.135 87.5 5.7% 0.0%vs LHP 397 10.7% 22.2% 8.0% 27

7 Braden Montgomery 35 D +850 · 228 0.175 89.4 4.5% 0.0%vs LHP 371 7.1% 10.0% 6.6% 33

8 Chase Meidroth 28 D — COOL 265 0.112 87.8 4.5% 11.8%vs LHP 376 6.0% 0.0% 6.1% 23

9 Edgar Quero 25 D — · 274 0.044 90.9 3.6% 10.5%vs LHP 389 4.7% 0.0% 7.5% 0

vs Anthony Kay · LHP 1.30 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.41 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Justin Foscue ✶ 54 C +850 COOL 43 0.235 89.4 9.9% 41.7%vs LHP 405 18.8% 33.3% 26.3% 15

2 Wyatt Langford 54 C +850 · 44 0.212 88.9 8.5% 25.0%vs LHP 402 18.0% 33.3% 25.5% 29

3 Jake Burger 52 C +625 WARM 58 0.188 90.0 9.6% 29.4%vs LHP 400 15.4% 20.0% 20.3% 28

4 Brandon Nimmo 49 D +700 · 88 0.162 92.4 10.3% 11.8%vs LHP 404 10.0% 20.0% 13.7% 26

5 Ezequiel Duran 46 D +950 WARM 109 0.166 88.4 7.4% 18.2%vs LHP 385 12.1% 20.0% 18.5% 21

6 Elias Díaz 44 D +750 COOL 127 0.185 86.3 7.1% 44.4%vs LHP 399 16.7% 0.0% 15.7% 15

7 Alejandro Osuna 27 D — COOL 268 0.041 87.1 2.4% 3.1% 364 2.8% 0.0% 6.1% 10

8 Nicky Lopez 21 D — COOL 279 0.045 85.4 — 4.8% 397 2.7% 0.0% 6.3% 25

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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