1
HRs allowed
3.8%
HR rate (pool)
6.7%
Overall HR/FB
3.56
FIP
4.29
xFIP
-0.74
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
8
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 8th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
58.3%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 107.5 EV · 429 ft
max EV allowed 110.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR ↑
15D · 1 HR ↑
30D · 1 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Tyler Alexander.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Changeup Offspeed
25.8%
83.5
3.8°
1
-0.3
Cutter Hard
24.1%
74.9
26.6°
0
-1.0
Sinker Hard
21.2%
82.1
13.2°
0
+1.1
Sweeper Breaking
15.8%
84.8
17.3°
1
-0.6
Fastball Hard
13.1%
79.3
33.6°
0
-2.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups26
HRs allowed (pool)1
Pool HR rate3.8%
Pool HR/game day0.33
Top-15 matchups1
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB6.7% 8
HR/9—
FIP3.56 31
xFIP4.29
FIP − xFIP-0.74 11
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed58.3%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-17
Changeup
Offspeed · 25.8% usage
-0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle3.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches171
Cutter
Hard · 24.1% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against74.9 mph
Avg launch angle26.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches160
Sinker
Hard · 21.2% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle13.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches141
Sweeper
Breaking · 15.8% usage
-0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle17.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches105
Fastball
Hard · 13.1% usage
-2.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.3 mph
Avg launch angle33.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches87
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Tyler Alexander.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
1 allowed · scored pool
avg 107.5 EV · 429 ft
1 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 3 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-29
8
1
110.7
2026-06-22
9
0
104.8
2026-05-19
9
0
105.5
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Tyler Alexander isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.