TheHomeRuns.org — BAL @ BOS

Neutral air · 1.00×

BAL @ BOS

Fenway Park · 1:35p · 30 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph slight_out 71°F Roof open

Hourly window

+13 ↑

1:35p

+13 ↑

2:35p

+14 ↑

3:35p

+15 ↑

4:35p

+14 ↑

5:35p

conditions build late — the 4:35p window peaks +15

Best of game Willson Contreras conv 38 · vs Bradish ⟷ Coby Mayo conv 31 · vs Proxy → edge: Willson Contreras

ATTACK Kyle Bradish RHP · BAL

leak 90

0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Willson Contreras +220 C+ ●●●●●

2 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●●●●

3 Wilyer Abreu — C ●●●●●

FADE BOS Bullpen Proxy · BOS

leak 51

1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

2 Samuel Basallo — C ●●●●○

3 Pete Alonso — C+ ●●●●○

FADE Jake Bennett LHP · BOS

leak 18

0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.75 · stingy — thin edge

1 Coby Mayo — C ●●●●●

2 Samuel Basallo — C ●●●●○

3 Pete Alonso — C ●●●○○

FADE Dean Kremer RHP · BAL

leak 88

3.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.87 · stingy — thin edge

1 Willson Contreras +220 C+ ●●●●●

2 Masataka Yoshida — D ●●●●●

3 Wilyer Abreu — C+ ●●●●●

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Willson Contreras: 14.2% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ HOT vs Bradish +220 0.257 · 90.7 · 10.8% 40.0% 35.2% F B O C+ 64

· BOS Willson Contreras ✶ HOT vs Kremer +220 0.257 · 90.7 · 12.2% 40.0% 34.5% F B O C+ 69

· BOS Wilyer Abreu HOT vs Kremer Edge — 0.195 · 90.1 · 11.5% 40.0% 25.7% F B O C+ 61

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Bennett Edge — 0.199 · 92.3 · 8.5% 40.0% 25.5% F B O C 51

· BAL Coby Mayo HOT vs Proxy — 0.199 · 92.3 · 11.4% 40.0% 21.6% F B O C 55

· BOS Wilyer Abreu HOT vs Bradish Edge — 0.195 · 90.1 · 10.2% 40.0% 20.1% F B O C 55

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Proxy — 0.207 · 91.3 · 12.9% 25.0% 23.6% F B O C 58

· BAL Samuel Basallo vs Bennett — 0.207 · 91.3 · 9.0% 25.0% 20.8% F B O C 51

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Proxy — 0.213 · 93.7 · 12.4% 22.2% 23.5% F B O C+ 60

· BAL Pete Alonso COOL vs Bennett Edge — 0.213 · 93.7 · 8.8% 22.2% 19.7% F B O C 53

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Kremer — 0.183 · 89.0 · 9.9% 20.0% 12.7% F B O C 53

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Kremer Edge +340 0.143 · 89.6 · 10.6% 0.0% 13.4% F B O C 50

Below the fade line · 18 long shots

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Kremer Edge — 0.139 · 88.8 · 5.5% 50.0% 17.5% F B O D 47

· BOS Masataka Yoshida HOT vs Bradish Edge — 0.139 · 88.8 · 4.9% 50.0% 13.8% F B O D 42

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Bennett Edge — 0.109 · 89.3 · 6.0% 22.2% 12.9% F B O D 36

· BAL Taylor Ward vs Proxy — 0.109 · 89.3 · 5.7% 22.2% 11.9% F B O D 37

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Bradish — 0.157 · 84.9 · 4.7% 20.0% 13.7% F B O D 40

· BOS Caleb Durbin COOL vs Kremer — 0.157 · 84.9 · 5.3% 20.0% 13.4% F B O D 44

· BOS Andruw Monasterio vs Bradish — 0.183 · 89.0 · 8.8% 20.0% 13.0% F B O D 48

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Proxy — 0.130 · 87.3 · 4.6% 20.0% 12.0% F B O D 36

· BAL Leody Taveras vs Bennett Edge — 0.130 · 87.3 · 5.4% 20.0% 11.3% F B O D 35

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Bennett — 0.183 · 89.6 · 6.7% 11.1% 12.2% F B O D 44

· BAL Gunnar Henderson COOL vs Proxy — 0.183 · 89.6 · 7.1% 11.1% 11.3% F B O D 46

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Bradish — 0.089 · 91.4 · 7.7% 0.0% 14.1% F B O D 36

· BOS Carlos Narvaez COOL vs Kremer — 0.089 · 91.4 · 8.7% 0.0% 13.8% F B O D 40

· BOS Jarren Duran vs Bradish Edge +340 0.143 · 89.6 · 9.4% 0.0% 10.5% F B O D 44

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Bradish — 0.160 · 86.2 · 6.3% 0.0% 10.4% F B O D 40

· BOS Ceddanne Rafaela COOL vs Kremer — 0.160 · 86.2 · 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Proxy — 0.139 · 86.9 · 10.6% 0.0% 8.6% F B O D 44

· BAL Colton Cowser vs Bennett — 0.139 · 86.9 · 8.2% 0.0% 7.8% F B O D 40

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

No arsenal data cached for BOS Bullpen Proxy — matrix columns need his real pitch families.

FB 65.6% ← leak OFF 24.7% BRK 9.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Alonso R Edge

15.6% 15.6% 7.1% 13.0% C 53 —

Coby Mayo R Edge

11.7% 10.5% 10.9% 11.3% C 51 —

Samuel Basallo L

15.0% 11.1% 11.5% 13.1% C 51 —

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

138

Gunnar Henderson L

7.6% 7.6% 6.4% 7.3% D 44 —

186

Colton Cowser L

14.5% 2.6% 13.2% 11.0% D 40 —

208

Taylor Ward R Edge

8.1% 2.9% 1.3% 5.7% D 36 —

218

Leody Taveras S Edge

5.4% 0.0% 9.1% 5.1% D 35 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (65.6% usage) carries Bennett's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.2% ← leak OFF 33.2% BRK 13.9% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Willson Contreras R

12.2% 21.2% 16.0% 14.2% C+ 69 +220

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

13.9% 13.1% 12.7% 13.5% C+ 61 —

Andruw Monasterio R

8.1% 15.4% 8.5% 9.0% C 53 —

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.0% 9.4% 7.6% 11.3% C 50 +340

Long shots · 4 — below the fade line

107

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% D 47 —

136

Caleb Durbin R

2.8% 3.4% 1.6% 2.6% D 44 —

144

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.1% 8.9% 5.3% 5.1% D 44 —

176

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 0.0% 8.3% 7.0% D 40 —

Read the columns: the fastball family (51.2% usage) carries Kremer's damage — FB is the leak. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 51.4% BRK 48.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 2

Willson Contreras R

12.2% 16.0% 14.2% C+ 64 +220

Wilyer Abreu L Edge

13.9% 12.7% 13.5% C 55 —

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

102

Andruw Monasterio R

8.1% 8.5% 9.0% D 48 —

142

Jarren Duran L Edge

14.0% 7.6% 11.3% D 44 +340

159

Masataka Yoshida L Edge

3.6% 0.0% 2.9% D 42 —

179

Caleb Durbin R

2.8% 1.6% 2.6% D 40 —

182

Ceddanne Rafaela R

4.1% 5.3% 5.1% D 40 —

207

Carlos Narvaez R

7.8% 8.3% 7.0% D 36 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Bradish's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Alonso Basallo Mayo Ward Taveras Alonso Mayo Basallo Ward Taveras Contreras Abreu Monasterio Yoshida Durbin Contreras Abreu Monasterio Yoshida Durbin

Legend

attack side — vs Bradish fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 10

Willson Contreras +220 · 64

Willson Contreras +220 · 69

Wilyer Abreu — · 61

Coby Mayo — · 51

Coby Mayo — · 55

Wilyer Abreu — · 55

Samuel Basallo — · 58

Samuel Basallo — · 51

Pete Alonso — · 60

Pete Alonso — · 53

Stadium conditions

Fenway Park

First pitch 1:35p · roof open

Park 1.00× Wind 2 mph slight_out 71°F open

+13

↑

13 mph · out

77°F

1:35p

+13

↑

13 mph · out

79°F

2:35p

+14

↑

13 mph · out

81°F

3:35p

+15

↑

14 mph · out

83°F

4:35p · peak

+14

↑

13 mph · out

82°F

5:35p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.00× 71°F, wind 2 mph N (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs BOS Bullpen Proxy 1.09 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.00 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 60 C+ — COOL 44 0.213 93.7 12.4% 21.0% 401 19.2% 22.2% 23.5% 17

2 Samuel Basallo 58 C — WARM 51 0.207 91.3 12.9% 24.2% 398 16.7% 25.0% 23.6% 18

3 Coby Mayo 55 C — HOT 76 0.199 92.3 11.4% 19.7% 406 15.8% 40.0% 21.6% 10

4 Gunnar Henderson 46 D — COOL 156 0.183 89.6 7.1% 16.8% 389 16.5% 11.1% 11.3% 28

5 Colton Cowser 44 D — WARM 175 0.139 86.9 10.6% 16.4% 417 14.0% 0.0% 8.6% 13

6 Taylor Ward 37 D — · 228 0.109 89.3 5.7% 7.2% 388 7.0% 22.2% 11.9% 23

7 Leody Taveras 36 D — WARM 236 0.130 87.3 4.6% 7.9% 420 3.0% 20.0% 12.0% 12

vs Jake Bennett · LHP 0.50 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.75 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Alonso 53 C — COOL 60 0.213 93.7 8.8% 13.3%vs LHP 401 19.2% 22.2% 19.7% 17

2 Coby Mayo 51 C — HOT 77 0.199 92.3 8.5% 45.5%vs LHP 406 15.8% 40.0% 25.5% 10

3 Samuel Basallo 51 C — WARM 78 0.207 91.3 9.0% 25.0%vs LHP 398 16.7% 25.0% 20.8% 18

4 Gunnar Henderson 44 D — COOL 138 0.183 89.6 6.7% 36.8%vs LHP 389 16.5% 11.1% 12.2% 28

5 Colton Cowser 40 D — WARM 186 0.139 86.9 8.2% 20.0%vs LHP 417 14.0% 0.0% 7.8% 13

6 Taylor Ward 36 D — · 208 0.109 89.3 6.0% 18.2%vs LHP 388 7.0% 22.2% 12.9% 23

7 Leody Taveras 35 D — WARM 218 0.130 87.3 5.4% 9.1%vs LHP 420 3.0% 20.0% 11.3% 12

vs Dean Kremer · RHP 3.24 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +2.87 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 69 C+ +220 HOT 9 0.257 90.7 12.2% 37.5%vs RHP 406 22.2% 40.0% 34.5% 11

2 Wilyer Abreu 61 C+ — HOT 24 0.195 90.1 11.5% 13.4%vs RHP 405 14.7% 40.0% 25.7% 30

3 Andruw Monasterio 53 C — WARM 67 0.183 89.0 9.9% 4.0%vs RHP 383 20.8% 20.0% 12.7% 16

4 Jarren Duran 50 C +340 · 87 0.143 89.6 10.6% 29.3%vs RHP 398 13.2% 0.0% 13.4% 23

5 Masataka Yoshida 47 D — HOT 107 0.139 88.8 5.5% 10.5%vs RHP 367 12.8% 50.0% 17.5% 22

6 Caleb Durbin 44 D — COOL 136 0.157 84.9 5.3% 21.9%vs RHP 373 9.9% 20.0% 13.4% 34

7 Ceddanne Rafaela 44 D — COOL 144 0.160 86.2 7.1% 12.8%vs RHP 372 8.5% 0.0% 10.2% 36

8 Carlos Narvaez 40 D — COOL 176 0.089 91.4 8.7% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 13.8% 10

vs Kyle Bradish · RHP 0.98 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Willson Contreras ✶ 64 C+ +220 HOT 16 0.257 90.7 10.8% 37.5%vs RHP 406 22.2% 40.0% 35.2% 11

2 Wilyer Abreu 55 C — HOT 47 0.195 90.1 10.2% 13.4%vs RHP 405 14.7% 40.0% 20.1% 30

3 Andruw Monasterio 48 D — WARM 102 0.183 89.0 8.8% 4.0%vs RHP 383 20.8% 20.0% 13.0% 16

4 Jarren Duran 44 D +340 · 142 0.143 89.6 9.4% 29.3%vs RHP 398 13.2% 0.0% 10.5% 23

5 Masataka Yoshida 42 D — HOT 159 0.139 88.8 4.9% 10.5%vs RHP 367 12.8% 50.0% 13.8% 22

6 Caleb Durbin 40 D — COOL 179 0.157 84.9 4.7% 21.9%vs RHP 373 9.9% 20.0% 13.7% 34

7 Ceddanne Rafaela 40 D — COOL 182 0.160 86.2 6.3% 12.8%vs RHP 372 8.5% 0.0% 10.4% 36

8 Carlos Narvaez 36 D — COOL 207 0.089 91.4 7.7% 11.1%vs RHP 394 0.0% 0.0% 14.1% 10

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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