TheHomeRuns.org — DET @ CHC

Neutral air · 1.02×

DET @ CHC

Wrigley Field · 8:10p · 17 ranked batters

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph slight_out 65°F Roof open

Hourly window

+1 ↑

7:10p

+4 ↑

8:10p

+3 ↑

9:10p

+1 ↑

10:10p

+2 ↑

11:10p

best window is early — 8:10p at +4

Best of game Spencer Torkelson conv 30 · vs Rea ⟷ Seiya Suzuki conv 28 · vs Montero → edge: Dillon Dingler

ATTACK Colin Rea RHP · CHC

leak 86

1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · leakiest side of this game

1 Spencer Torkelson +400 C+ ●●●●●

2 Dillon Dingler +525 C+ ●●●●○

3 Riley Greene +425 C ●●●○○

FADE Keider Montero RHP · DET

leak 33

0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · stingy — thin edge

1 Seiya Suzuki +525 C ●●●●○

2 Alex Bregman +750 D ●●●●○

3 Carson Kelly +850 D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Dillon Dingler: 11.4% barrels overall vs the FB leak · 14D pace 14.3%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· DET Spencer Torkelson COOL vs Rea +400 0.206 · 89.8 · 11.9% 33.3% 26.2% F B O C+ 61

· CHC Seiya Suzuki vs Montero +525 0.203 · 89.3 · 8.4% 33.3% 23.1% F B O C 53

· DET Dillon Dingler ✶ COOL vs Rea +525 0.277 · 89.7 · 10.3% 14.3% 33.0% F B O C+ 65

· DET Riley Greene vs Rea Edge +425 0.190 · 91.6 · 11.9% 22.2% 20.7% F B O C 58

· CHC Pete Crow-Armstrong COOL vs Montero Edge +390 0.228 · 90.1 · 8.8% 11.1% 25.1% F B O C 55

· CHC Ian Happ COOL vs Montero Edge +500 0.215 · 89.7 · 9.5% 11.1% 14.3% F B O C 53

· DET Kerry Carpenter COOL vs Rea Edge +500 0.210 · 89.8 · 9.9% 0.0% 14.3% F B O C 53

Below the fade line · 10 long shots

· CHC Alex Bregman vs Montero +750 0.146 · 88.1 · 5.7% 33.3% 15.5% F B O D 42

· CHC Carson Kelly vs Montero +850 0.124 · 88.1 · 6.9% 25.0% 12.4% F B O D 40

· CHC Michael Busch COOL vs Montero Edge +575 0.168 · 88.3 · 8.6% 22.2% 15.1% F B O D 48

· DET Colt Keith HOT vs Rea Edge +750 0.145 · 89.3 · 8.9% 16.7% 11.1% F B O D 46

· CHC Dansby Swanson COOL vs Montero +575 0.194 · 89.7 · 7.3% 0.0% 12.4% F B O D 46

· DET Kevin Mcgonigle COOL vs Rea Edge +575 0.140 · 87.9 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.8% F B O D 43

· DET Gleyber Torres COOL vs Rea +750 0.118 · 85.1 · 8.7% 0.0% 10.2% F B O D 41

· DET Matt Vierling vs Rea — 0.125 · 87.6 · 7.2% 0.0% 7.9% F B O D 41

· DET Zach Mckinstry vs Rea Edge +950 0.096 · 84.8 · 5.0% 0.0% 7.2% F B O D 35

· CHC Nico Hoerner vs Montero — 0.094 · 86.1 · 2.4% 0.0% 6.7% F B O D 27

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

FB 56.8% ← leak BRK 25.4% OFF 17.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 4

Dillon Dingler R

12.5% 11.3% 5.7% 11.4% C+ 65 +525

Spencer Torkelson R

17.1% 8.9% 21.1% 15.4% C+ 61 +400

Riley Greene L Edge

15.9% 15.5% 8.2% 14.3% C 58 +425

Kerry Carpenter L Edge

9.8% 11.4% 7.7% 9.8% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

118

Colt Keith L Edge

7.6% 17.6% 4.3% 8.5% D 46 +750

148

Kevin Mcgonigle L Edge

9.7% 7.8% 2.0% 8.1% D 43 +575

168

Gleyber Torres R

10.1% 5.9% 0.0% 8.3% D 41 +750

174

Matt Vierling R

8.0% 2.7% 0.0% 5.2% D 41 —

217

Zach Mckinstry L Edge

3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 2.6% D 35 +950

Read the columns: the fastball family (56.8% usage) carries Rea's damage — FB is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 54.5% BRK 31.7% OFF 13.7% Overall Score

Neutral · 3

Pete Crow-Armstrong L Edge

9.4% 12.3% 11.5% 10.6% C 55 +390

Seiya Suzuki R

9.4% 9.1% 10.5% 9.4% C 53 +525

Ian Happ S Edge

14.7% 19.6% 3.3% 12.8% C 53 +500

Long shots · 5 — below the fade line

100

Michael Busch L Edge

12.4% 6.7% 3.0% 10.0% D 48 +575

117

Dansby Swanson R

7.9% 4.0% 12.9% 7.3% D 46 +575

158

Alex Bregman R

4.3% 7.2% 6.7% 5.3% D 42 +750

181

Carson Kelly R

8.5% 3.7% 5.9% 6.9% D 40 +850

253

Nico Hoerner R

1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% D 27 —

Read the columns: no single family leads Montero's damage — the leak is spread across the arsenal. 3 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Dingler Torkelson Greene Keith Crow-Armstrong Suzuki Busch Bregman Kelly

Legend

attack side — vs Rea fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Spencer Torkelson +400 · 61

Seiya Suzuki +525 · 53

Riley Greene +425 · 58

Stadium conditions

Wrigley Field

First pitch 7:10p · roof open

Park 1.02× Wind 6 mph slight_out 65°F open

↑

6 mph · slight_out

68°F

7:10p

↑

5 mph · out

66°F

8:10p · peak

↑

3 mph · out

64°F

9:10p

↑

1 mph · slight_out

62°F

10:10p

↑

3 mph · out

61°F

11:10p

arrow = wind over the diamond, plate → CF (↑ out · ↓ in · → cross) · FIT = signed park+weather HR signal per hour

Neutral · Combined 1.02× 65°F, wind 6 mph NNE (slight_out) — modifier: +0. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Colin Rea · RHP 1.32 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.30 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Dillon Dingler ✶ 65 C+ +525 COOL 14 0.277 89.7 10.3% 30.6%vs RHP 397 19.6% 14.3% 33.0% 17

2 Spencer Torkelson 61 C+ +400 COOL 23 0.206 89.8 11.9% 25.0%vs RHP 394 16.5% 33.3% 26.2% 23

3 Riley Greene 58 C +425 · 36 0.190 91.6 11.9% 19.1%vs RHP 399 13.3% 22.2% 20.7% 19

4 Kerry Carpenter 53 C +500 COOL 63 0.210 89.8 9.9% 24.1%vs RHP 380 15.6% 0.0% 14.3% 16

5 Colt Keith 46 D +750 HOT 118 0.145 89.3 8.9% 14.0%vs RHP 389 7.3% 16.7% 11.1% 16

6 Kevin Mcgonigle 43 D +575 COOL 148 0.140 87.9 8.7% 8.3%vs RHP 399 0.0% 0.0% 10.8% 29

7 Gleyber Torres 41 D +750 COOL 168 0.118 85.1 8.7% 10.3%vs RHP 388 7.1% 0.0% 10.2% 2

8 Matt Vierling 41 D — · 174 0.125 87.6 7.2% 8.1%vs RHP 377 7.4% 0.0% 7.9% 20

9 Zach Mckinstry 35 D +950 WARM 217 0.096 84.8 5.0% 8.2%vs RHP 390 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 22

vs Keider Montero · RHP 0.81 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP -0.68 · 8 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Pete Crow-Armstrong 55 C +390 COOL 46 0.228 90.1 8.8% 23.2%vs RHP 393 19.0% 11.1% 25.1% 19

2 Seiya Suzuki 53 C +525 WARM 59 0.203 89.3 8.4% 22.9%vs RHP 409 15.2% 33.3% 23.1% 27

3 Ian Happ 53 C +500 COOL 64 0.215 89.7 9.5% 25.0%vs RHP 404 19.2% 11.1% 14.3% 21

4 Michael Busch 48 D +575 COOL 100 0.168 88.3 8.6% 16.4%vs RHP 403 13.9% 22.2% 15.1% 27

5 Dansby Swanson 46 D +575 COOL 117 0.194 89.7 7.3% 18.3%vs RHP 403 13.3% 0.0% 12.4% 26

6 Alex Bregman 42 D +750 WARM 158 0.146 88.1 5.7% 17.5%vs RHP 391 9.2% 33.3% 15.5% 28

7 Carson Kelly 40 D +850 WARM 181 0.124 88.1 6.9% 9.1%vs RHP 416 7.1% 25.0% 12.4% 20

8 Nico Hoerner 27 D — WARM 253 0.094 86.1 2.4% 3.6%vs RHP 383 4.0% 0.0% 6.7% 33

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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