TheHomeRuns.org — TB @ TOR

Neutral air · 1.00×

TB @ TOR

Rogers Centre · 7:07p · 16 ranked batters

Park 1.00× Wind 0 mph dome — Roof unknown

Best of game Junior Caminero conv 39 · vs Fisher ⟷ George Springer conv 27 · vs Jax → edge: Junior Caminero

ATTACK Braydon Fisher RHP · TOR

leak 92

1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · leakiest side of this game

1 Junior Caminero +320 C+ ●●●●●

2 Cedric Mullins +575 D ●●●○○

3 Nick Fortes — D ●●○○○

FADE Griffin Jax RHP · TB

leak 90

1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · stingy — thin edge

1 George Springer +500 D ●●●●○

2 Kazuma Okamoto +390 C+ ●●●●○

3 Brandon Valenzuela — D ●●●○○

One pick per game — the round-robin guard fires on a second lock here. The verdict pick is Junior Caminero: 14.1% barrels overall vs the BRK leak · 14D pace 40.0%. Verdict = model score + conviction (½·14D pace + ½·Match%); odds shown are the live best price, never invented.

price power form ✶ matchup ✶ score

#batter oddsiso · ev · brl% 14d pacematch% · f b o

· TB Junior Caminero ✶ vs Fisher +320 0.267 · 93.3 · 12.5% 40.0% 37.1% F B O C+ 69

· TOR Kazuma Okamoto vs Jax +390 0.216 · 91.2 · 11.7% 25.0% 29.1% F B O C+ 61

Below the fade line · 14 long shots

· TOR George Springer vs Jax +500 0.169 · 88.4 · 8.6% 33.3% 21.2% F B O D 49

· TB Cedric Mullins vs Fisher Edge +575 0.141 · 88.1 · 7.1% 28.6% 15.3% F B O D 44

· TOR Brandon Valenzuela vs Jax Edge — 0.177 · 88.3 · 8.9% 20.0% 17.6% F B O D 48

· TB Nick Fortes vs Fisher — 0.090 · 85.8 · 4.9% 14.3% 10.6% F B O D 34

· TOR Nathan Lukes COOL vs Jax Edge +750 0.107 · 86.6 · 3.3% 14.3% 9.4% F B O D 34

· TB Richie Palacios vs Fisher Edge +950 0.098 · 85.8 · 6.4% 14.3% 9.0% F B O D 36

· TB Jonathan Aranda vs Fisher Edge +425 0.170 · 91.2 · 10.7% 11.1% 10.6% F B O D 49

· TOR Ernie Clement COOL vs Jax +850 0.129 · 85.1 · 4.8% 12.5% 7.9% F B O D 37

· TB Yandy Diaz vs Fisher +625 0.154 · 91.0 · 8.7% 0.0% 11.6% F B O D 41

· TOR Daulton Varsho HOT vs Jax Edge +475 0.139 · 86.2 · 8.2% 0.0% 9.5% F B O D 41

· TOR Andres Gimenez vs Jax Edge +950 0.128 · 86.3 · 6.3% 0.0% 9.0% F B O D 35

· TB Ben Williamson vs Fisher — 0.091 · 87.2 · 4.5% 0.0% 8.3% F B O D 32

· TB Chandler Simpson COOL vs Fisher Edge — 0.070 · 84.0 · — 0.0% 6.4% F B O D 20

· TB Taylor Walls COOL vs Fisher Edge +950 0.071 · 85.3 · 5.7% 0.0% 5.9% F B O D 30

Fade line = model score below 50 (the model's own Below tier — the spec's confidence threshold mapped to our real tiers). ✶ marks the verdict pick · side dot: attack / fade · F·B·O = the bat's real Barrel% vs each pitch family (same scale as the Threat Matrix). Rows without a 14D pace or Match% value show dashes and sort last on those keys.

Threat Matrix

tonight's lineup × the starter's arsenal families

cell = batter Barrel% vs that pitch family — higher runs hotter cold hot

BRK 78.9% ← leak FB 21.1% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Junior Caminero R

13.1% 16.9% 14.1% C+ 69 +320

Long shots · 8 — below the fade line

Jonathan Aranda L Edge

11.9% 10.8% 10.1% D 49 +425

135

Cedric Mullins L Edge

3.9% 3.4% 4.4% D 44 +575

165

Yandy Diaz R

11.0% 5.1% 7.1% D 41 +625

209

Richie Palacios L Edge

2.3% 5.1% 4.1% D 36 +950

223

Nick Fortes R

2.0% 3.2% 2.6% D 34 —

238

Ben Williamson R

0.0% 2.9% 1.8% D 32 —

246

Taylor Walls S Edge

0.0% 4.0% 2.8% D 30 +950

261

Chandler Simpson L Edge

0.0% 0.0% 0.0% D 20 —

Read the columns: the breaking family (78.9% usage) carries Fisher's damage — BRK is the leak. 5 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

FB 42.7% ← leak BRK 34.9% OFF 22.4% Overall Score

Neutral · 1

Kazuma Okamoto R

15.5% 9.2% 15.8% 13.8% C+ 61 +390

Long shots · 6 — below the fade line

George Springer R

8.9% 5.8% 8.7% 7.9% D 49 +500

Brandon Valenzuela S Edge

3.9% 20.0% 13.0% 8.3% D 48 —

170

Daulton Varsho L Edge

9.0% 3.1% 6.1% 6.9% D 41 +475

204

Ernie Clement R

2.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% D 37 +850

216

Andres Gimenez L Edge

4.3% 2.6% 6.1% 4.0% D 35 +950

224

Nathan Lukes L Edge

0.0% 2.2% 2.9% 1.1% D 34 +750

Read the columns: the fastball family (42.7% usage) carries Jax's damage — FB is the leak. 4 of 7 listed bats hold the platoon edge. Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).

Form × Fit

14-day HR pace (form) against HR/FB matchup fit — both axes 0–40, real slate values

LOCK ZONE 14d pace ↑ match% → Caminero Mullins Okamoto Springer Valenzuela

Legend

attack side — vs Fisher fade side dot size = HR score · gold ring = locked Lock Zone = 14D pace ≥ 20% AND Match% ≥ 18 (spec thresholds; both are the site's warm/top-quartile lines)

In the lock zone · 3

Junior Caminero +320 · 69

Kazuma Okamoto +390 · 61

George Springer +500 · 49

Stadium conditions

Rogers Centre

First pitch 7:07p · roof unknown

Park 1.00× Wind 0 mph dome — unknown

Hourly forecast unavailable; showing current stadium conditions only.

Neutral · Combined 1.00× Dome — weather irrelevant. Park, wind, temperature, and roof are inputs to Combined, not separate signals to stack on top.

vs Braydon Fisher · RHP 1.10 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +0.12 · 9 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Junior Caminero ✶ 69 C+ +320 WARM 8 0.267 93.3 12.5% 41.5%vs RHP 408 28.1% 40.0% 37.1% 29

2 Jonathan Aranda 49 D +425 WARM 96 0.170 91.2 10.7% 19.2%vs RHP 387 12.9% 11.1% 10.6% 29

3 Cedric Mullins 44 D +575 WARM 135 0.141 88.1 7.1% 22.2%vs RHP 393 14.3% 28.6% 15.3% 19

4 Yandy Diaz 41 D +625 · 165 0.154 91.0 8.7% 22.5%vs RHP 383 0.0% 0.0% 11.6% 38

5 Richie Palacios 36 D +950 WARM 209 0.098 85.8 6.4% 9.7%vs RHP 396 4.0% 14.3% 9.0% 16

6 Nick Fortes 34 D — WARM 223 0.090 85.8 4.9% 10.5%vs RHP 402 3.8% 14.3% 10.6% 16

7 Ben Williamson 32 D — WARM 238 0.091 87.2 4.5% 10.0%vs RHP 398 3.0% 0.0% 8.3% 19

8 Taylor Walls 30 D +950 COOL 246 0.071 85.3 5.7% 0.0%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 19

9 Chandler Simpson 20 D — COOL 261 0.070 84.0 — 3.7%vs RHP 0 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% 32

vs Griffin Jax · RHP 1.56 HR/9 · FIP−xFIP +1.03 · 7 batters

#batter scoretier oddsform rank isoevbarrel% hr/fbhr dist sea hr%14d pace match%bbe

1 Kazuma Okamoto 61 C+ +390 · 21 0.216 91.2 11.7% 29.8%vs RHP 396 20.0% 25.0% 29.1% 21

2 George Springer 49 D +500 WARM 90 0.169 88.4 8.6% 23.1%vs RHP 391 11.0% 33.3% 21.2% 20

3 Brandon Valenzuela 48 D — WARM 99 0.177 88.3 8.9% 22.2%vs RHP 394 11.8% 20.0% 17.6% 7

4 Daulton Varsho 41 D +475 HOT 170 0.139 86.2 8.2% 11.1%vs RHP 386 7.1% 0.0% 9.5% 26

5 Ernie Clement 37 D +850 COOL 204 0.129 85.1 4.8% 7.6%vs RHP 375 8.6% 12.5% 7.9% 31

6 Andres Gimenez 35 D +950 WARM 216 0.128 86.3 6.3% 11.4%vs RHP 391 0.0% 0.0% 9.0% 19

7 Nathan Lukes 34 D +750 COOL 224 0.107 86.6 3.3% 14.3%vs RHP 378 6.4% 14.3% 9.4% 21

Hot wash = top of this side's column (percentile ≥ .6) · cool wash = bottom (≤ .4) · BBE is sample size, never tinted. The vs-hand chip on HR/FB marks a real handedness split; unchipped values are overall. Click a row for the full matchup overlay.

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