21
HRs allowed
13.1%
HR rate (pool)
9.4%
Overall HR/FB
3.6
FIP
4.2
xFIP
-0.60
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
20
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 20th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.5 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 111.7
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 7 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Keller.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
31.5%
84.0
30.3°
1
-1.4
Sinker Hard
18.3%
86.5
12.0°
1
+0.4
Sweeper Breaking
16.1%
79.7
14.8°
6
+2.2
Curveball Breaking
9.1%
81.7
6.8°
1
+1.1
Changeup Offspeed
8.7%
85.1
2.3°
1
+1.6
Slider Breaking
8.6%
83.8
1.4°
1
-0.2
Cutter Hard
7.5%
80.1
8.6°
2
+3.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups160
HRs allowed (pool)21
Pool HR rate13.1%
Pool HR/game day1.11
Top-15 matchups4
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB9.4% 20
HR/9—
FIP3.6 32
xFIP4.2
FIP − xFIP-0.60 15
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-28
Fastball
Hard · 31.5% usage
-1.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle30.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches570
Sinker
Hard · 18.3% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle12.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches331
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.1% usage
+2.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against79.7 mph
Avg launch angle14.8°
HRs allowed6
Pitches291
Curveball
Breaking · 9.1% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches165
Changeup
Offspeed · 8.7% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.1 mph
Avg launch angle2.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches158
Slider
Breaking · 8.6% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.8 mph
Avg launch angle1.4°
HRs allowed1
Pitches156
Cutter
Hard · 7.5% usage
+3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against80.1 mph
Avg launch angle8.6°
HRs allowed2
Pitches136
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Mitch Keller.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
21 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.5 EV · 399 ft
7 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-22
8
1
108.2
2026-07-09
7
2
107.6
2026-07-03
8
2
111.7
2026-06-28
8
0
104.8
2026-06-23
8
2
105.2
2026-06-16
8
1
105.0
2026-06-11
8
1
108.7
2026-06-05
7
1
106.2
2026-05-30
9
0
106.5
2026-05-24
9
0
105.0
2026-05-19
9
4
110.8
2026-05-13
9
2
107.9
2026-05-07
9
1
106.2
2026-05-01
9
0
102.5
2026-04-25
9
0
109.2
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Mitch Keller isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Mitch Keller isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
84
10
12%
9
4
44%
8
2
25%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 10. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.