Today · 2026-09-04

Share Slate 🧙 Morning Wizard 🎲 Build Variance Card

233 scored matchups · top 5 preview · upgrade for full slate Lineups loading…

🔥

2:10p

6:10p

6:40p

🔥

6:45p

7:05p

7:10p

7:40p

8:05p

🔥

8:10p

🔥

8:10p

8:40p

9:40p

10:10p

Locks 0/1

Daily Routine ready Routine

Prime Card 0/6 not saved

‹

⭐ Today's Slate

›

Ranked by composite score BP = Bullpen · WT = Weather

🥇 Golden Slate 7 top-15 batters face HR-prone pitchers

#1 Yordan Alvarez vs Merrill Kelly FIP 5.68 HR/FB 21.9% #2 Carter Jensen vs Jameson Taillon FIP 6.63 HR/FB 25.4% #5 Jac Caglianone vs Jameson Taillon FIP 6.63 HR/FB 25.4% #10 Pro pick vs Merrill Kelly FIP 5.68 HR/FB 20.0% #11 Pro pick vs Ryan Johnson FIP 6.27 HR/FB 20.0% #14 Pro pick vs Ryan Feltner FIP 5.47 HR/FB 21.3% #15 Pro pick vs Merrill Kelly FIP 5.68 HR/FB 20.0%

📦 STACK Merrill Kelly FIP 5.68 HR/FB 21.9% → #1 Yordan Alvarez, #10 Pro pick, #15 Pro pick

📦 STACK Jameson Taillon FIP 6.63 HR/FB 25.4% → #2 Carter Jensen, #5 Jac Caglianone

📦 STACK Zebby Matthews FIP 4.67 HR/FB 19.6% → #3 Munetaka Murakami, #6 Pro pick, #8 Pro pick, #12 Pro pick

2025 full-season backtest

2025 backtest: a top-15 pick went yard on 92.9% of slates · top-50 picks hit 1.6x the field

Sample window: 2025 full-season backtest · 182 slates · 2025-03-27 to 2025-09-28 Live 2026 is current through 2026-09-03. Past performance ≠ guarantee.

92.9% top-15 slates, 2025

1.6x top-50 vs field

92.4% Live 2026 top-15

See the full record

#	Batter	Score	Edge	Roster	Pitcher · Game	Time	Tier	Hand	'26 HR	Form	Last HR	Last 5	Due	BvP	BP	Weather
1	Yordan Alvarez (L)	71	-11.8	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟡 B	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	37	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%13.9% Avg EV94.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	6d Last HR · 2026-08-29 OffDaniel Duarte Exit Velo113.4 mph Angle23.0° Distance436 ft StadiumCiti Field	○○○○○	1.7×	·	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.13 FIP4.35 IP1214.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+22 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp90°F Wind10 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
2	Carter Jensen (L)	68	-3.5	●	Jameson Taillon (RHP) TOR @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	22	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%12.3% Avg EV91.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	1d Last HR · 2026-09-03 OffSandy Alcantara Exit Velo108.4 mph Angle28.0° Distance440 ft StadiumKauffman Stadium	○○○●●	0.0×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP3.84 IP1175.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+31 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+31 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
3	Munetaka Murakami (L)	67	-13.6	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) MIN @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	29	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls21 BBE Barrel%14.2% Avg EV93.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	17d Last HR · 2026-08-18 OffKevin Gausman Exit Velo111.1 mph Angle39.0° Distance406 ft StadiumWrigley Field	○○○○○	5.0×	1	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.15 FIP4.31 IP1178.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
4	Kyle Schwarber (L)	66	-7.4	●	Chris Sale (LHP) ATL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	40	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls35 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	9d Last HR · 2026-08-26 OffBryan Woo Exit Velo104.8 mph Angle27.0° Distance425 ft StadiumT-Mobile Park	○○○○○	1.5×	3	ATL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.13 FIP4.17 IP1185.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-12 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind8 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-12 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 8 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
5	Jac Caglianone (L)	64	-7.2	●	Jameson Taillon (RHP) TOR @ KC · Kauffman Stadium	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	23	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls30 BBE Barrel%13.7% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	8d Last HR · 2026-08-27 OffMyles Straw Exit Velo104.9 mph Angle32.0° Distance409 ft StadiumRogers Centre	○○○○○	1.2×	·	TOR Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.00 FIP3.84 IP1175.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+30 Weather · Kauffman Stadium hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp93°F Wind6 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+30 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note93°F, wind 6 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
6	Pro pick (L)	64	-12.4	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) MIN @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls24 BBE Barrel%11.3% Avg EV88.8 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.15 FIP4.31 IP1178.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
7	Pro pick (L)	64	-9.3	●	Erick Fedde (RHP) MIN @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls31 BBE Barrel%9.9% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CWS Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.09 FIP4.21 IP1205.7 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
8	Pro pick (R)	63	·	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) MIN @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls11 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.15 FIP4.31 IP1178.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
9	Pro pick (R)	63	-10.1	●	Andre Pallante (RHP) STL @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls23 BBE Barrel%9.3% Avg EV90.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	STL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.1% HR/91.00 FIP4.11 IP1244.0 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+25 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind11 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+25 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 11 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
10	Pro pick (L)	63	-8.4	●	Ryan Johnson (RHP) LAA @ PIT · PNC Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls27 BBE Barrel%13.2% Avg EV95.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.07 FIP4.25 IP1290.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+20 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind4 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+20 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
11	Pro pick (R)	63	-9.7	●	Zebby Matthews (RHP) MIN @ CWS · Rate Field	7:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls36 BBE Barrel%11.9% Avg EV90.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIN Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.15 FIP4.31 IP1178.3 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+0 Weather · Rate Field Unknown stadium Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+0 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR NoteUnknown stadium
12	Pro pick (R)	62	-2.3	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls32 BBE Barrel%8.8% Avg EV88.4 mph Surprise BarrelYes Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.13 FIP4.35 IP1214.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+24 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp90°F Wind10 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
13	Pro pick (R)	62	-12.0	●	Trevor Williams (RHP) TB @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%10.1% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TEX Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.23 FIP4.14 IP1199.8 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp95°F Wind7 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note95°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
14	Pro pick (R)	62	-10.9	●	Ryan Feltner (RHP) STL @ COL · Coors Field	8:40p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%11.8% Avg EV92.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	COL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.4% HR/91.36 FIP4.83 IP1246.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+22 Weather · Coors Field hot air · steady partial wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp87°F Wind11 mph E Characterslight_out HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+22 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note87°F, wind 11 mph E (slight_out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
15	Pro pick (R)	62	-5.3	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls38 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV89.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.13 FIP4.35 IP1214.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+24 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp90°F Wind10 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+24 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
16	Pro pick (L)	62	-2.3	●	Cristopher Sánchez (LHP) ATL @ PHI · Citizens Bank Park	6:40p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls34 BBE Barrel%10.4% Avg EV92.6 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	PHI Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.5% HR/91.19 FIP3.80 IP1207.6 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-15 Weather · Citizens Bank Park warm air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp81°F Wind8 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-15 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note81°F, wind 8 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
17	Pro pick (L)	61	·	●	Jackson Kent (LHP) WSH @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls47 BBE Barrel%10.0% Avg EV90.5 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.4% HR/91.44 FIP4.86 IP1245.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
18	Pro pick (L)	61	-9.1	●	Nick Martinez (RHP) TB @ TEX · Globe Life Field	8:05p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls17 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV92.3 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	TB Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.2% HR/91.19 FIP4.02 IP1215.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+17 Weather · Globe Life Field hot air · light wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp95°F Wind7 mph SSE Characterout HR Modifier4 Spray/Wind+17 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note95°F, wind 7 mph SSE (out) — modifier: +4 (first-pitch forecast)
19	Pro pick (R)	61	-9.9	●	Shane Drohan (LHP) MIL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs LHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls43 BBE Barrel%10.2% Avg EV90.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIL Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.3% HR/91.07 FIP3.69 IP1210.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note91°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
20	Pro pick (L)	61	-6.1	●	Ryan Johnson (RHP) LAA @ PIT · PNC Park	6:45p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.0% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAA Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.9% HR/91.07 FIP4.25 IP1290.4 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+19 Weather · PNC Park warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind4 mph W Characterout HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind+19 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 4 mph W (out) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
21	Pro pick (L)	61	-11.2	●	Rhett Lowder (RHP) MIL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls19 BBE Barrel%11.1% Avg EV92.4 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.32 FIP4.76 IP1208.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+6 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+6 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note91°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
22	Pro pick (L)	61	-11.3	●	Jackson Kent (LHP) WSH @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%10.8% Avg EV93.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	WSH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.4% HR/91.44 FIP4.86 IP1245.9 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	+26 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+26 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
23	Pro pick (L)	61	-8.2	●	Cristian Javier (RHP) AZ @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls37 BBE Barrel%9.8% Avg EV91.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	HOU Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.5% HR/91.30 FIP4.64 IP1271.3 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+21 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp90°F Wind10 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+21 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)
24	Pro pick (L)	61	-10.7	●	Janson Junk (RHP) CHC @ MIA · loanDepot Park	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls44 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV90.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	MIA Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.5% HR/91.05 FIP4.13 IP1252.2 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	-29 Weather · loanDepot Park hot air · steady wind in · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp83°F Wind10 mph SE Characterin HR Modifier-1 Spray/Wind-29 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note83°F, wind 10 mph SE (in) — modifier: -1 (first-pitch forecast)
25	Pro pick (R)	60	-9.1	●	Rhett Lowder (RHP) MIL @ CIN · Great American Ball Park	6:10p	🔵 C+	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COOL Form · COOL SignalCOOL Batted Balls42 BBE Barrel%10.9% Avg EV92.0 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	CIN Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.8% HR/91.32 FIP4.76 IP1208.6 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+3 Weather · Great American Ball Park hot air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: carry conditions are helping fly balls tonight. Roofopen Temp91°F Wind6 mph NNW Characterout HR Modifier3 Spray/Wind+3 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note91°F, wind 6 mph NNW (out) — modifier: +3 (first-pitch forecast)
26	Pro pick (L)	60	-9.1	●	Nolan McLean (RHP) SF @ NYM · Citi Field	7:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls39 BBE Barrel%8.6% Avg EV92.9 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	NYM Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB12.8% HR/91.11 FIP4.12 IP1363.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	-36 Weather · Citi Field hot air · steady crosswind · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp84°F Wind11 mph NW Charactercross HR Modifier1 Spray/Wind-36 · Red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note84°F, wind 11 mph NW (cross) — modifier: +1 (first-pitch forecast)
27	Pro pick (S)	60	·	●	Kade Morris (RHP) ATH @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	10:10p	🔵 C+	SHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	HOT Form · HOT SignalHOT Batted Balls29 BBE Barrel%9.7% Avg EV89.7 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.50 FIP4.90 IP1268.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-10 Weather · T-Mobile Park cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp64°F Wind5 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-10 · Slight red resistance Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note64°F, wind 5 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
28	Pro pick (L)	60	·	●	Kade Morris (RHP) ATH @ SEA · T-Mobile Park	10:10p	🔵 C+	LHH vs RHP Analyst note: platoon edge. The batter gets a cleaner look from the opposite side. Helpful context, especially when the power signals already like him.	0	NTRL Form · NTRL SignalNEUTRAL Batted Balls33 BBE Barrel%8.9% Avg EV91.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	ATH Bullpen · Vulnerable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB15.0% HR/91.50 FIP4.90 IP1268.5 Signal: HR/FB is in the danger zone. Bullpen context boosts the matchup story.	-9 Weather · T-Mobile Park cool air · light crosswind · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp64°F Wind5 mph N Charactercross HR Modifier0 Spray/Wind-9 · Neutral Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note64°F, wind 5 mph N (cross) — modifier: +0 (first-pitch forecast)
29	Pro pick (L)	59	-3.8	●	Blake Snell (LHP) WSH @ LAD · Dodger Stadium	10:10p	🟠 C	LHH vs LHP Analyst note: same-side left-on-left is usually the toughest version for hitters. Use as a caution flag, not an automatic fade.	0	WARM Form · WARM SignalWARM Batted Balls3 BBE Barrel%9.5% Avg EV95.2 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	LAD Bullpen · Watch Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB13.6% HR/91.22 FIP4.07 IP1221.1 Signal: close to league-average danger. Worth noting, not a major boost.	+28 Weather · Dodger Stadium warm air · light wind out · roof open Analyst note: no major weather edge. Let the player and pitcher signals drive the call. Roofopen Temp74°F Wind7 mph SSW Characterout HR Modifier2 Spray/Wind+28 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note74°F, wind 7 mph SSW (out) — modifier: +2 (first-pitch forecast)
30	Pro pick (R)	59	+1.3	●	Merrill Kelly (RHP) AZ @ HOU · Minute Maid Park	8:10p	🟠 C	RHH vs RHP Analyst note: neutral platoon context. No major boost or penalty from handedness. Let score, pitcher, and environment carry the decision.	0	COLD Form · COLD SignalCOLD Batted Balls25 BBE Barrel%11.2% Avg EV89.1 mph Surprise Barrel— Display only — not part of the model score. Recent contact quality can lead HR results, but this trend does not change any pick's number. Rolling 14-day Statcast versus season baseline.	—	—	·	·	AZ Bullpen · Stable Analyst note: if the starter exits early, this pen shapes late-game HR chances. HR/FB11.9% HR/91.13 FIP4.35 IP1214.1 Signal: below the danger threshold. This bullpen is not helping the case.	+23 Weather · Minute Maid Park hot air · steady wind out · retractable roof Analyst note: roof/dome keeps weather noise low. Roofretractable Temp90°F Wind10 mph SE Characterout HR Modifier5 Spray/Wind+23 · Slight green alignment Spray Sourceproxy · 0 HR Note90°F, wind 10 mph SE (out) — modifier: +5 (first-pitch forecast)

🔥

Six home runs to freedom

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Tonight's full board — all 233 ranked matchups plus the conviction tools — is Pro. Check the public track record first: every board graded next morning, hits and misses included.

Create a free account — no card required Try Pro free for 3 days — then $10/mo Already have an account? Sign in

No card to sign up. Yesterday's graded board and the daily top-5 preview are free.

228 more waiting in the on-deck circle

Slate reference

Symbol Guide

Every icon, badge, and shorthand on the slate. Hover the table itself for quick tips; use this when you want the full translation.

Row Actions

👁: WatchTrack a batter without counting him as one of today's locked picks.
🔒: LockAdd this batter to today's tracked picks. Locked picks are the choices that count.
★: FavoriteYou starred this batter so he is easier to find on crowded slates.
▲ / ▼: Conviction editYour notes or tags adjusted the recommendation score up or down.

Batter and Pitcher Marks

R L S: Batter handR = right-handed, L = left-handed, S = switch-hitter. Pitchers show RHP or LHP.
: Platoon advantageGreen means the batter has an opposite-handed or switch-hitter look.
: Neutral handGold means the matchup is neutral, most commonly righty versus righty.
: Same-side cautionRed means lefty versus lefty, usually the toughest handedness setup for hitters.
◎: Pitcher flagTop HR-susceptible pitcher. Open the row and inspect the full matchup.

Lightning and Tags

⚡: Arsenal EdgePitch-type mismatch. The batter damages a pitch the opposing pitcher throws and allows damage on. A small number means multiple exploitable pitch types.
⚡²: Chip firingOne or more saved Chips matched this batter tonight. This only appears when the Chip system is active for the user.
2: Your tag countNumber of your saved tags on the batter. Hover the number on the slate to see the tag names.
💬 ↑ ↓: Community toolsComment link and limited daily up/down votes. These are hidden when the launch-minimal UI is active.

Score and Tier

82: ScoreComposite 0-100 HR grade for tonight. Higher means more of the model's power, pitcher, park, and context signals agree.
🥇 S: S tierElite, score 95+.
🔥 A+: A+ tierPremium, score 90-94.
🟢 A: A tierExcellent, score 80-89.
🟡 B: B tierAbove average, score 70-79.
🔵 C+: C+ tierValue, score 60-69.
🟠 C: C tierBelow average, score 50-59.
⚪ D: D tierBelow 50.

Colors

Color meaning changes by surface. Percentile bars use Baseball Savant-style heat, where red means elite. Spray and wind use green for favorable and red for unfavorable.

Surface	Green	Orange	Red
Percentile bars	Average range	Above average	Elite / great
Spray chart	Favorable HR zone or wind fit	Neutral / mixed	Unfavorable zone or wind fit
Slate weather	Carry help	Neutral or dome context	Carry drag
Edge and results	Model ahead or hit	Mostly aligned / watch	Market ahead or miss

Edge

Edge is model probability minus market consensus probability, shown in percentage points.

+3.1: Model aheadThe model is higher than the market, a price-positive signal.
+0.2: Mostly alignedThe model and market are close.
-3.1: Market aheadThe book is more optimistic than the model, so treat the price with caution.

Form

🔥 HOT: HotRecent contact quality is running above the batter's baseline.
↗ WARM: WarmRecent indicators are positive, but not screaming.
— NTRL: NeutralNo meaningful hot or cold form signal.
↘ COOL: CoolRecent contact quality is softening.
❄ COLD: ColdRecent indicators are materially below baseline.

Timing and History

2d: Last HRDays since the batter's last home run.
●○: Last 5Home run results across the last five games. Filled dot = homered; open dot = did not homer.
1.6×: DueHow far past the batter's usual HR cadence he is. 1.5× or higher is strongly overdue; use it as a tiebreaker.
2: BvPHome runs versus today's pitcher in the app's data. Useful color, usually a small sample.

Bullpen

🔥: VulnerableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 15%.
!: WatchOpposing bullpen HR/FB is at least 12%, but below the vulnerable threshold.
✓: StableOpposing bullpen HR/FB is below 12%.
—: No readNo reliable bullpen value is available.

Weather

→: Tail / carry helpWeather modifier is +3 or better. Conditions are helping fly-ball carry.
←: Head / carry dragWeather modifier is -3 or worse. Conditions are working against carry.
⌂: Dome or retractable roofRoof context keeps weather noise low.
+24: Spray/WindOptional batter-specific wind read, comparing wind direction to where this batter usually hits home runs.

Roster and Results

●: Roster activeActive in the roster feed. This is not a health guarantee.
?: QuestionableManual availability risk flag. The batter remains visible, but the recommendation score is discounted.
IL: Injured listThe roster feed reports an IL status. These batters should be excluded from active slate scoring.
PPD: PostponedOfficial MLB game status says postponed. Treat the row as unavailable tonight.
✓: HitPast-slate result: this batter homered.
×: MissPast-slate result: no home run.
?: PendingPast-slate result has not loaded yet.

🔒

Lock one pick tonight

Free accounts lock 1 pick a night from the preview — graded on your own record the next morning. No card required.

Create a free account →

Full board + 6-pick cards — Pro

Season · Top 50 Catch Rate

last 30 days

15.7%

▼ -1.2 pts

avg daily catch rate · vs 16.3% prior 15d

Yesterday · 2026-09-03

14 HRs

50%

7 caught / 14 HRs

in top 50

#2 Pete Crow-Armstrong

34.9%

🟡

#8 Heriberto Hernández

31.1%

🔵

#19 Pete Alonso

24.1%

🟠

#33 Carter Jensen

20.6%

🟠

#42 Corey Seager

12.6%

🟠

#44 Christian Encarnacion-Strand

16.1%

🟠

#46 Zack Gelof

11.4%

🟠

Missed

Jose Altuve Luis Robert Jr. Andrew Vaughn Adley Rutschman Nick Sogard +2 more

7-Day Streaks

top 50 pool

🔥 Hot

Heriberto Hernández ×3 Rafael Devers ×3 Sal Stewart ×3 Michael Harris II ×3 Pete Crow-Armstrong ×3

❄️ Cold

Miguel Vargas 0 of 7d Munetaka Murakami 0 of 7d Max Muncy 0 of 7d Jake Bauers 0 of 7d Elly De La Cruz 0 of 6d

Model Health · HR catch rate by tier

season-to-date

A+

C+

S 0.0%

A+ 16.7%

A 19.3%

B 19.9%

C+ 16.9%

C 13.7%

D 8.9%

Best Day

32.0%

May 29

Today · 2026-09-04

The free preview stops at 5. Tonight's board doesn't.

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.